Who has the edge? Michigan State at Michigan basketball
Mar. 4—The Detroit News' James Hawkins breaks down Thursday's Michigan vs. Michigan State game at Crisler Center (7 p.m., ESPN/760, 950).
Guards
Grad transfer Mike Smith has thrived in his new role and has given Michigan what it needed at the point guard spot. He's one of the top facilitators in the Big Ten — ranked third with five assists per game — he can get a bucket at when things break down, and he has shown to be an adequate defender. Smith can play on and off the ball alongside senior Eli Brooks, who is the top perimeter defender on a unit that ranks No. 1 in league play. If opponents focus too much on Michigan's other threats, Smith (48.9% from 3) and Brooks (35.5% from 3) can make teams pay from deep.
Sophomore Rocket Watts has been confounding for Michigan State. After ending last season on a high, he seemed to be on the verge of taking off with two 20-point outings in the first four games. But ever since then, Watts has been inconsistent and bounced in and out of the starting lineup as the lead guard. His offensive numbers have regressed from a year ago and he's scored in double figures just twice over the past 19 games. Like Watts, fifth-year senior Joshua Langford has seen his shooting percentage dip, but he's been a steadying presence and reliable source for the Spartans. Over the past five games, he's averaging 12 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists. — Edge: Michigan
Forwards
The Wolverines boast arguably the best three-four tandem in the nation in junior Isaiah Livers and sophomore Franz Wagner. Their size, skill set and two-way play often cause mismatches and nightmares for the opposition. Both can handle the ball, drive it and knock down outside shots, with Livers shooting 45.3% from 3-point range and Wagner hitting at a 36.5% clip. Before Tuesday's rough showing against Illinois, the duo was reaching another gear, with Livers averaging 16.1 points on 48.7% shooting over a seven-game span and Wagner averaging 17.8 points on 67.6% shooting over a four-game stretch.
Junior Aaron Henry has put the Spartans on his back and has been nothing short of impressive in recent weeks. During Michigan State's late-season push, Henry has been the driving force and doing it all while averaging 19.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, four assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks over the past five games. The Spartans have also seemed to find something with junior Gabe Brown, who has helped fuel the surge. He has scored at least 10 points three times in the last five contests and they've been playing better on both ends with him in the starting lineup. — Edge: Michigan
Center
Not many teams have had an answer for Hunter Dickinson, who's leading Michigan with 14.4 points per game and is the clear front-runner for Big Ten freshman of the year. Simply put, he creates a defensive dilemma for foes. If teams leave him one-on-one in the post, he'll take advantage of those situations. If teams opt to double him, he has the passing skills and vision to find the open man. It's no secret much of Michigan's offense runs through Dickinson and it's no surprise the Wolverines' two losses came in games where he struggled. And on the defensive end, he's just as impactful and has stood his ground against other elite bigs.
The five spot has been a revolving door for Michigan State all season. Junior Marcus Bingham Jr. is the biggest body on the roster. But at 6-foot-11 and 225 pounds, he's still giving up two inches and 30 pounds to Dickinson. The Spartans wlikely will deploy a similar tactic they used against Illinois' Kofi Cockburn and throw all of their big men — including junior Thomas Kithier, sophomores Malik Hall and Julius Marble and freshman Mady Sissoko — at Dickinson to make things as tough as possible. While the post defense has improved, those five Spartans haven't provided much of an offensive punch and none are averaging more than 4.5 points per game. — Edge: Michigan
Bench
Michigan has primarily leaned on an eight-man rotation, with three veterans coming off the bench. Senior guard Chaundee Brown serves as the sixth man, fifth-year senior Austin Davis backs up Dickinson and junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. provides a breather for either Livers or Wagner. Brown averages 7.9 points and can provide a spark with his 3-point shooting or defense when things are getting stale. Davis is a reliable big who can be counted on to grab a couple of rebounds, score a couple of baskets and defend. Johns gives Michigan another versatile piece, but his playing time has dwindled as of late with Livers and Wagner logging more minutes.
Michigan State, on the other hand, has typically been playing 10 to 11 players a game and its depth took a hit with junior guard Foster Loyer's shoulder injury. Redshirt junior forward Joey Hauser leads reserves after moving from the starting lineup to the second unit. In eight games off the bench, he's averaging 9.1 points and 3.9 rebounds in 20.9 minutes. In addition to Hauser, freshman guard A.J. Hoggard, Hall, Kithier and Bingham are all averaging at least 10 minutes per game. But the problem is outside of Hauser, the Spartans never know what they're going to get from the backups on a nightly basis. — Edge: Michigan
Coach
Michigan's Juwan Howard is in the coach of year discussion for a reason. The Wolverines have bulldozed their way through Big Ten play with a balanced offensive attack and fierce defense. The team has shown it can prevail in any type of game — a back-and-forth shootout, a defensive battle or a contest that goes down to the wire — and has often made the necessary halftime adjustments to pull away. The Wolverines also have been able to overcome any setback, whether it was winning seven straight after dropping a dud at Minnesota or their first five games following a 23-day layoff. Michigan has been the aggressor on most nights, but after Tuesday's passive performance, it will have to prepare for another fistfight. And by all accounts, Howard will have his team ready to rumble.
Michigan State's Tom Izzo often has had the upper hand and the more talented team in the series. That won't be the case this time around as he continues to mix and match his lineups to find the right combination each game. And like Howard had to do last season with Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman, it will be Izzo who will have the challenge of devising a way to contain and counter Michigan's ball-screen attack and big man. But given the job Izzo's squad did against top-five foes Illinois and Ohio State last week, he's shown anything is possible. — Edge: Even
Twitter: @jamesbhawkins
