Glacier Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:GBCI) just released its latest third-quarter results and things are looking bullish. The company beat both earnings and revenue forecasts, with revenue of US$209m, some 7.8% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.81, 28% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the six analysts covering Glacier Bancorp are now predicting revenues of US$706.8m in 2021. If met, this would reflect an okay 2.8% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 20% to US$2.02 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$706.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.02 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$38.20, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Glacier Bancorp, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$42.00 and the most bearish at US$35.00 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Glacier Bancorp's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 2.8%, compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 1.4% next year. So it's pretty clear that, while Glacier Bancorp's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$38.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Glacier Bancorp analysts - going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Glacier Bancorp (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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