DVOA, EPA conflict in Cowboys-Vikings Week 11 stats preview
Dallas enter Week 11 with a 6-3 record after an overtime loss to the Green Bay Packers last weekend. The Cowboys will look to right the ship against their fourth consecutive NFC North opponent. The offense is expected to have RB Ezekiel Elliott back in the mix, which should help the Cowboys potent rushing attack.
The Cowboys opponent this week, the Minnesota Vikings, have an 8-1 record and have a seven-game winning streak on the line. Offensively, the Vikings have a two-headed rushing attack and multiple receiving threats to attack a defense. Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) - Football Outsiders
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
DVOA is a metric which measures the success of each play as compared to league average using percentage points above or below average. The metric measures down, distance, field location, quarter and quality of opponent.
With DVOA, teams are looking for a higher percentage offensively and a lower percentage defensively. On offense and special teams, the objective is to perform above league average while defenses are looking to force their opponents to perform below league average.
Information via Football Outsiders.
DVOA Offense
Offensive DVOA favors the Cowboys with a clean sweep in the three metrics.
The edge in passing DVOA goes to the Cowboys by a small margin with an advantage of 2.3% in their favor.
Rushing DVOA favors the Cowboys by a large margin despite both teams finishing in the top 10. The Cowboys rank 2nd with a DVOA of 15.2%, +12.8% over the Vikings.
Neither team ranks in the top 10 in offensive DVOA but the Cowboys hold the edge overall with a 12th placed DVOA of 5.5%. The Vikings finish five spots lower and have a total offensive DVOA of .7%.
Offensive Advantage: Cowboys
DVOA Defense
While looking for positive DVOA’s on offense, a negative DVOA is better on defense.
After sweeping the offensive DVOA metrics, the Cowboys repeat the trifecta with a sweep of defensive DVOA.
Defensive passing DVOA indicates that the Cowboys hold a significant edge here. The Cowboys defense ranks fourth with a DVOA of -21.7% while the Vikings rank 15th a 6.1% DVOA.
Although the edge in passing DVOA is heavily in the Cowboys favor, things narrow in rushing DVOA. While this may surprise people given the Cowboys rushing defensive woes recently, the Cowboys still rank 11th with a -9.4% . The Vikings are just three spots lower with a -4.9%.
Overall defensive DVOA goes to the Cowboys by a large sum. The Vikings rank 19th with a 1.7% DVOA while the Cowboys rank second with a -15.9%.
Defensive Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Advantage: Cowboys
Expected Points Added and Success Rate
Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports
EPA measures the impact a play has on the likelihood of scoring. With EPA, yardage, field position, and down and distance all weigh in on what the expected net points would be for the situation. As an example, a first and goal at the one-yard line would represent a higher EP-Expected Points than a third and 10 on your own 20 yard line.
EPA is the difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the beginning of the play compared to the end of the play. It measures the plays impact on the score of the game.
Success rate is a measure of how often teams get 40% of the needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down and 100% on third down or fourth down.
EPA figures gathered by rbsdm.
EPA: Offense
While DVOA favored the Cowboys offense, EPA tells a different story.
EPA per play favors the Vikings by .021 points added over expectation. They rank five spots higher than the Cowboys who are averaging just .004 over expected.
EPA per dropback also goes to the Vikings who are adding .059 points over expected per pass. The Cowboys rank 23rd and are performing below the expected point total per pass by -.008.
Rushing EPA per handoff favors the Cowboys who rank fifth with an EPA of .018. The Vikings rank ten spots lower with a -.045 rushing EPA.
The Vikings lead in success rate, ranking seven spots higher than the Cowboys with an impressive 46.8% success rate, ninth highest in the league.
Offensive Advantage: Vikings
EPA: Defense
Despite an uncharacteristically bad performance last week, the Cowboys defense still remains one of the very best units in the league.
EPA per play allowed favors the Cowboys who ran fourth overall holding opponents to .062 points under expected per play. The Vikings rank 13th with a strong -.019 EPA/play.
Passing EPA/play gives an advantage to the Cowboys defense as well, again ranking fourth while holding opposing QBs to -.075 EPA per dropback. The Vikings defense ranks 11th with a .038.
The edge in rushing EPA per carry goes to the Vikings who rank fifth overall with a -.124. The Cowboys rank 16 spots lower with an EPA allowed of -.044.
The Cowboys hold a large edge in success rate, holding opponents to 42.1%, the eighth best rate in the league.
Defensive Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Advantage: PUSH ( Each team wins 4 of 8 EPA categories)
Toxic Differential:Toxicity
(AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)
Toxic differential (also referred to as Toxicity) adds the number of explosive plays an offense generates and subtracts the number of explosive plays a defense allows, then adds the turnover margin.
Under Brian Billick’s formula, explosive plays are defined as passing plays over 20 yards and rushing plays over 10 yards.
Toxic Differential: Offense
The Cowboys offense has 23 explosive passing plays this season (20+ yards), CeeDee Lamb has accounted for 12 of those, the fourth most in the league. The Vikings have 24 explosive passes and have a slight edge.
The Cowboys have two more explosive runs (10+ yard carries) than the Vikings this season.
Both teams have done a really nice job in limiting turnovers this season. The Cowboys have allowed one less giveaway than the Vikings.
Cowboys: 23 explosive passes+ 30 explosive runs= 53 explosive plays.
53 explosive plays – 9 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 42.
Vikings: 24 explosive passes+ 28 explosive runs= 52 explosive plays.
52 explosive plays – 10 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 42.
Offensive Advantage: PUSH
Toxic Differential: Defense
The Cowboys have done a phenomenal job at limiting explosive passing plays, allowing just 17 this season. The Vikings have allowed 15 more.
The running defenses tell a very different story though, with the Vikings allowing just 27 carries of 10+ yards while the Cowboys have allowed 40.
The Vikings have generated two more takeaways than the Cowboys with 17 on the year.
Cowboys: 17 explosive passes+ 40 explosive runs= 57 explosive plays.
57 explosive plays – 15 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 42.
Vikings: 32 explosive passes+ 27 explosive runs= 59 explosive plays.
59 explosive plays – 17 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 42.
Defensive Advantage: PUSH
Overall Toxicity is determined by subtracting the defensive total from the offensive total.
Cowboys Toxicity: Offense 42 – Defense 42 = Overall Toxicity 0
Vikings Toxicity: Offense 42 – Defense 42= Overall Toxicity 0
Overall Advantage: PUSH
ANY/A
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt, or ANY/A, is a formula which incorporates passing yardage, touchdowns, sacks and interceptions into a per-throw average. ANY/A has a direct correlation to scoring points and as such ranks third in win predictability.
ANY/A for favors the Vikings by a minimal edge of .03 yards.
Kirk Cousins ANY/A 5.68, Dak Prescott’s ANY/A 5.64
ANY/A against favors the Cowboys by 1.3 yards per attempt.
The Cowboys have an ANY/A differential advantage as they gain .80 adjusted net yards per attempt more than they allow whule the Vikings have a .47 yard defecit.
Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Recap
( Jerry Holt/Star Tribune via AP)
Toxicity: PUSH (Both teams win lead 3 of 6 and tie for overall differential)
DVOA: Cowboys (6 out of 6)
EPA: PUSH (4 out of 8)
ANY/A: Cowboys (2 out of 3)
Overall: Cowboys (lead 15 of 25 metrics)
