Ducks Wire Roundtable: Predictions and opinions for the Oregon vs. Oregon State game
Every rivalry game has a lot on the line, but the stakes are particularly high for the Oregon Ducks in this game against the Oregon State Beavers on Saturday.
Not only is Dan Lanning at risk of losing to both the Beavers and Washington Huskies in his first year with the Ducks, but he could potentially miss out on a trip to the Pac-12 Championship Game should Oregon drop this game in Corvallis. While the Ducks arguably have the better team on paper, a lot goes out the window when you put two bitter rivals on the gridiron together.
How healthy will Bo Nix be? Can Oregon’s defense step up like they did last week against Utah? Will the Beavers’ defense be able to slow down a limited Oregon offense? We will have to wait and find out.
To help preview all of the action, Ducks Wire writers Zachary Neel, Don Smalley, and Andy Patton gathered to make predictions and offer opinions on what we might see.
Here is your final regular-season Ducks Wire Roundtable of the 2022 season. Enjoy.
Cap off the Utah win
Question: As we do most weeks, let’s take a quick look back before we got forward. What was the most impressive aspect of Oregon’s win over Utah last week for you?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I think it has to be Oregon’s defense. If you look at the numbers — the Ducks scoring just 20 points and rushing for only 59 yards total — then you’d think that for sure they lost the game. However, Oregon’s defense came to play and put on a clinic at the right time, shutting down Cameron Rising and the Utah offense. We’ve been waiting for that unit to show up all year, and they finally did in a big way.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
Can we say, everyone? Bo Nix went into legendary status with me with that effort. It’s something I’ll remember for a long time. The offensive line wasn’t exactly 100 percent and they were incredible against a blitzing defense that was trying to take advantage of a non-mobile QB. Then, of course, the defense. Their turnaround in just a week after getting abused against Washington was a site to behold. THIS was the defense we were all waiting to see.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
Bo Nix limping his way to a victory will always stick out to me, but doing it with a banged up offensive line against a top tier defensive front is the stuff legends are made of. Oregon’s defense stepped up as well, and that shouldn’t be ignored, but Nix’s heroics could go down in the annals of Oregon history.
Bo Nix's Ability
Question: It seems like Bo Nix is going to be able to play this week. How different do you think this offense will look with this new, less-mobile version of the QB?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
It depends on how mobile he is, but I think that Kenny Dillingham is going to draw a lot of things up that have Nix in a relatively stationary state while things happen around him. He proved quickly that he can impact the game with just his arm, so I’m not concerned at all with how the offense will look this week, especially considering that they’ve had another week to prepare knowing the abilities of their QB.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
I would think Nix will be more mobile than last week but look for those quick-hitting passes again. I’d like to see more screen passes and throws to the tight end. Maybe some reverses and use their speed (as long as it’s not Ty Thompson trying to hand it off). The Ducks will need to find a way to get the running game off the ground more than they did last week.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
It’ll be interesting to see how Oregon attacks the Beavers, who have a very stout defensive front. They are notably adept at stopping the run, but the Ducks have run well over teams with that reputation this season and I think we will see it again on Saturday.
Defensive Success
Question: Oregon’s defense really stepped up in a major way last week. What do you think changed?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
To be honest, I’m not sure. I think things might have just clicked, rather than it being some drastic change. For weeks now, coaches and players have been saying that they felt the defense was really close to getting things going in the right direction, and it finally happened. The defensive line was incredibly physical and able to get into the backfield a lot, and the secondary showed a bit of improvement as well.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
I think Utah’s offensive scheme helped out a lot. The Utes don’t have much of a downfield threat, so the Ducks could play up in the box more and let the linebackers roam in their area instead of having to cover downfield. Oregon State’s offense is similar and should play into the Ducks’ strengths.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
It was a well-schemed game from the coaching staff, with Oregon able to mitigate Utah’s strengths and get after Cam Rising in the backfield. Good coaching and the unit finally ‘clicking’ might be very bad news for the Beavers and Oregon’s future opponents.
Beavers Strengths
Question: Oregon State’s defense is legitimate, and can hurt you. Their offense also has a strong running game. Which do you think has more of a chance to hurt the Ducks?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I think Oregon State’s defense will be the main factor in this one. Oregon showed last week that they can be the aggressor on defense and stop a rushing attack like Utah’s or Oregon States. However, if the Beavers are able to expose a limited Bo Nix, then it might spell trouble for the Ducks.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
Oregon has shown it can stop a good run game. The Beavers defense needs to play well for them to have a chance here. If it’s low scoring, advantage OSU. A shootout favors the Ducks. It should be somewhere in the middle.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
I think Oregon State’s defense is the big hinge in this game, especially if Nix is even slightly below 100% mobility-wise. The running game will be a big factor as well, especially if the Beavs can use it to burn some clock, but it will come down to Nix vs. Oregon State’s defense in my opinion.
Top-Dog Unit
Question: Which unit wins the game for Oregon this week?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
Once again I think it’s the defensive line. Oregon State loves to run the ball, and if Brandon Dorlus, DJ Johnson, and Casey Rogers and shut that down, then I don’t think the Beavers will be able to do much.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
Offensive line on two fronts. The Beavers’ secondary isn’t great. If the OL can give Nix time to throw and let receivers run their routes in medium depth, Oregon will have its share of points on the board.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
Oregon’s offensive front needs to have a big game to create holes for the running game (against a good defense) and give Nix time to make big plays without having to rely as much on his legs. If the OL plays like they can, this should be a victory for the Ducks.
Place Your Bets
Question: You get $100 to wager on this game, split how you see fit between the spread (Oregon -3), the money line (Oregon -150, OSU +125), or the over/under (59). Where are you putting your money?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I’m taking all $100 and putting it on Oregon -3. To be completely honest, I’m not sure why that line is so low, and it makes me feel like I’m missing something. Even if Bo Nix is the same level of health as he was last week, then I think the Ducks have a good chance to win this game.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
$40 on the Ducks to cover, $20 for Oregon to win, and the rest on the under.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
Ooh man, those are good lines. I’m putting it all on Oregon to cover the spread though, only because I think a win is very likely and while I think it could end up close, I doubt it’s within three points. So I’d rather get the bang for my buck by betting on the spread.
Final Score Prediction
Question: Final Score predictions. Who wins this game?
Zachary Neel (Follow @ZacharyCNeel)
I think this one is relatively low-scoring and physical. Give me Oregon, 27-17.
Don Smalley (Follow @Donald_Smalley)
Oregon wins 31-17.
Andy Patton (Follow @AndyPattonPNW)
Oregon – 28, Oregon State – 21
Beavs keep it close, but Oregon does enough to secure a victory on the road in a rivalry contest.
