Despite end of Meng Wanzhou and 'two Michaels' crises, chill lingers over Canada-China relations

On December 6, 2021, Canada's ambassador to China, Dominic Barton, announced his resignation just months after the surprise resolution of the worst diplomatic crises in the history of Ottawa-Beijing relations.

In a parting statement that seemed an attempt to move relations beyond the difficult period, Barton wrote: "I believe that the relationship between Canada and China is of critical importance to our future ... As I leave my role, my successor will be on strong footing to further this relationship."

But six months on, the sprawling Canadian embassy compound in China's capital is still waiting for its new boss.

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"Whether it's that the Canadian government has not proposed an ambassador to the Chinese authorities, or whether the Canadian government has proposed an ambassador and the Chinese authorities have not accepted that individual," it was unclear why the post has been vacant for so long, said Charles Burton, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, an Ottawa-based think tank.

Barton's tenure in Beijing coincided with Canada's arrest of Huawei Technologies CFO Meng Wenzhou at the request of the US government and the subsequent detentions by the Chinese government of two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.

After nearly three years, the situation culminated in a high-stakes prisoner swap as Meng secured a deal with US prosecutors to dismiss her extradition case in Canada.

Cong Peiwu, the Chinese ambassador to Ottawa, went to China for "official business" in January and, as of May, had not returned because of "Covid-related lockdown", The Globe and Mail newspaper reported, citing China's diplomatic mission.

The Chinese embassy did not respond to requests for comment.

Since the release of Meng, Spavor and Kovrig, Canada and China have struggled to revive their flagging relationship.

In December, Canada joined its Western allies in a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics because of suspected human rights abuses in China. But in February, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet abstained from a non-binding vote in the House of Commons that accused China of committing genocide against Uygurs in Xinjiang province.

Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly spoke with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in April and discussed "the challenges of recent years, including cases of arbitrary detentions and the importance of frank dialogue".

In May, China lifted its three-year import ban on Canadian canola seeds. Before the freeze in March 2019, Canada exported around 40 per cent of its canola crop to China.

Canada welcomed the decision, but the thaw didn't last long. Ottawa soon announced that it would bar Chinese telecoms equipment makers Huawei and ZTE from working on the country's 5G networks because of national security concerns. China condemned the move and accused Canada of "seriously damaging legitimate rights of Chinese companies".

Tensions flared again last month after the Canadian military said China's PLA had harassed its pilots during UN-mandated patrols along the North Korean border. China defended its pilots and accused Canada of conducting surveillance against Beijing.

Experts say a lack of a coherent strategy with well-defined aims is deepening Canada's China conundrum.

Ottawa "is collectively scratching its head, trying to figure out what would be a reasonable way forward", said three-time Canadian ambassador Randolph Mank, adding that the government has been suffering from a policy paralysis on China and the Indo-Pacific for "several years".

Canada was expected to come up with a new China policy by the end of 2020. While the long-promised framework never manifested, the country last month constituted a new Indo-Pacific Advisory Committee. Likely to arrive in "coming weeks", the new Indo-Pacific strategy will address Canada's relations with China.

But the announcement has failed to inspire much confidence among observers.

"To me, this is just something you do when you're not quite ready to announce a policy," said Mank, adding, "So, to me, this is just buying time, listening to other views on Canada, in Asia-Pacific."

Burton pointed out that most members of the committee have been "closely associated with the previous policy", and some are "well-known to think that Canada should acknowledge the inevitability of China's rise to power and should comply with China's desire to have trade without conditionality".

Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Centre think tank, Ottawa remains confused about how to deal with China. "I think they are just looking for clues from how the US is handling it and decide from there where they fit in," he said.

But Canada remains conspicuously absent from all recent US-led "anti-China" Indo-Pacific initiatives, including the Aukus security alliance between Washington, Australia and Britain and US President Joe Biden's Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), a regional economic strategy announced in May.

Calling Canada a latecomer, Sands said the US did not see its all-weather North American ally as a major player and partner in the Pacific. "Canada is not a major military power, and much of its capabilities are focused on the Arctic," he said.

"But Canadians, I think, were still expecting to be asked because Australia and Britain and the United States are three of their closest allies. So, they were a little bit, you know, resentful that they didn't get invited on these most recent initiatives. The Biden administration, it doesn't appear that they had even a plan to include Canada. They seem to have forgotten that Canada was a Pacific power."

Jeff Nankivell, president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada and former consul general to Hong Kong and Macau, said it was "in Washington's interest to bring Canada at the table in discussions such as IPEF ... it's a mistake on their they should be including countries on the other side of the ocean."

There has also been speculation about Canada's contribution to the G7's recently relaunched US$600 billion Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment, the West's answer to China's Belt and Road Initiative.

"It would be odd if Canada didn't participate in the G7 initiative, but we also subscribe to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in Beijing," said Mank. "So, we have a commitment to capitalise projects in Asia."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2022 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Copyright (c) 2022. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.