System in the Gulf has a high chance of turning into a tropical cyclone, forecasters say

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National Hurricane Center

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is becoming better organized and now has a high chance of turning into a tropical depression soon, forecasters said on Friday afternoon.

The National Hurricane Center at 2 p.m. upped the system’s formation chances again from 60% to a high 70% for the next two to five days. Forecasters said the system, which is not a threat to Florida, could turn into a tropical depression sometime Friday or Saturday as it moves northwest across the Gulf.

“However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development,” according to the hurricane center.

Regardless of development, forecasters expect the system will bring heavy rain to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the weekend. As of the 2 p.m. advisory, the system was producing showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche.

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter plane on Friday afternoon went to investigate the system.

NOAA’s revised prediction says there could be 11 to 17 named storms before the Atlantic’s 2022 hurricane season ends on Nov. 30. The next storm name on the list is Danielle.