David Briggs: As college carousel spins out of control, is Matt Campbell to Notre Dame next?

Nov. 30—OK, so who else is rooting for a Cincinnati-Notre Dame rematch in the playoffs ... with Luke Fickell leading the Irish?

Insane, right?

But then what would you call anything about this coaching carousel?

At college football's depraved carnival, it makes that one rusted pendulum ride — the Turbo Vortex 360: winner of eight straight failed inspections at the Corncob County Fair — seem like a smooth spin.

Hello, madness, our old friend.

If we've learned anything, now that Lincoln Riley has swapped one blue blood (Oklahoma) for another (Southern California) and Brian Kelly is bolting Notre Dame in the middle of a potential playoff run for LSU, it's that nothing is off the table, up to and including Touchdown Jesus himself taking the wheel for the Irish.

In the past few days, there have been openings at five of perhaps the 10 biggest college jobs in the sport, first at Florida, LSU, and USC, and now at Oklahoma and Notre Dame.

We've never seen anything like it.

And unless you foresaw the day when Oklahoma and Notre Dame would turn into lily pads like Toledo and Bowling Green, we never thought we would. (Even counting the blockbuster leaps of Lane Kiffin from Tennessee to USC in 2009 and Jimbo Fisher from Florida State to Texas A&M in 2017, the last comparable blue-blood-to-blue-blood move in major college athletics was in 2003, when legendary basketball coach Roy Williams traded Kansas for North Carolina, his alma mater.)

It's all crazy, and the farcical whirlwind speaks to a couple factors in the college landscape.

First, the same universities that screamed poverty during the pandemic have a boundless grove of money trees — and donors with even bigger groves — when it comes to football.

This is fine, by the way.

Set aside the debates about amateurism, and consider the economics: For schools with big-time football programs, success on Saturdays is the golden goose of self-supporting athletic departments that double as mints. (Ohio State, for instance, pulled in $225.5 million last year, per federal records; Michigan collected $168.2 million.) Finding the right football CEO is almost invaluable, including at USC, which reportedly gave Riley a NINE-FIGURE deal, and LSU, which nabbed Kelly for $95 million over 10 years (the same contract Michigan State just gave Mel Tucker).

All I ask is they spare us any sanctimony. Same goes for the coaches bailing in the night. Let's all just admit the business is bonkers, our priorities are nuts, and move on. We have football to watch!

Second, the ecosystem has shifted.

Beyond the godfather offers, why would Kelly run to the SEC? Because LSU — the lone power-conference school in a state saturated with blue-chip talent — is better positioned than Notre Dame to win a national title in the 21st century (if Les Miles and Ed Orgeron can win one there, so can Kelly).

And why would Riley run from the SEC? Because he won't have to compete against LSU, and Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, and Texas A&M. It's likely no coincidence that Riley's move to the top job in the pedestrian Pac-12 comes as Oklahoma prepares to transition to the SEC, where he would have occupied maybe the fifth-best post in the nation's best league.

Just a thought: Maybe the Sooners shouldn't have left the Big 12.

In any case, they now have a Cadillac opening, as does Notre Dame.

And we have another excuse to peddle, yep, you guessed it, that guy who used to coach at Toledo.

Expect Matt Campbell to be in play for both jobs, especially at Notre Dame.

So far, the three betting favorites are the three obvious candidates: Irish defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman, Fickell, and Campbell.

I'd lean toward the experience of Fickell, who is 43-6 in his past four seasons at Cincinnati, or Campbell.

I know some are off the Campbell bandwagon after his Iowa State team this year went from No. 7 in the preseason to 7-5. He had a golden chance to answer the two biggest knocks you hear from critics — never won a conference championship, can't handle pressure — and he didn't.

But context matters, and it remains hard to overstate the work he's done at a dead-end job, a place with no tradition and no recruiting base (Iowa State is the kid brother of two power-conference schools in a state that produced only 14 FBS recruits last year).

While every program is entitled to a bad century, it bears repeating: Since World War I, one coach left the school with a winning record. That was Earle Bruce, who went 36-32 from 1973-78 — a tenure that was considered so good in Ames that it got him the Ohio State job.

Campbell, meanwhile, is 42-33 in six years there, and, after a 3-9 debut, enjoyed five straight winning seasons in Big 12 play. The man can build a culture with the best of them and I'll be fascinated to see how he'll fare at a program with greater resources and access to talent. My guess: very well.

To me, Fickell is 1A and Campbell 1B, with Campbell, 42, having the narrowest of edges because of the timing.

Let's suppose Notre Dame likes both coaches and third-ranked Cincinnati makes the playoffs. Don't be surprised if the Irish, wanting a coach who can begin recruiting immediately, go ahead and hire Campbell.

That is, unless Fickell is willing to leave the Bearcats in the lurch before their biggest game in school history.

I'd be floored if he did.

Now, where does he sign?!

First Published November 30, 2021, 4:47pm