'A dangerous week': East winds, storms in Oregon could spread wildfires
Oregon firefighters will face just about every challenge possible this week as continued hot temperatures combine with windy and unstable conditions, possible thunderstorms and even dreaded east winds, fire meteorologists said.
The concern isn’t on the same level as the 2020 Labor Day fires east wind event, forecasters stressed, but there is fear of active wildfires near Oakridge, Grants Pass and Joseph spreading as well as new ignitions growing quickly.
Oregon utilities told the Statesman Journal they're watching conditions closely and may consider shutting down power lines to limit wildfire danger. Two years ago, falling power active lines in the high winds were at least partly to blame for the Labor Day wildfires.
Two years later:What really caused the Labor Day wildfires?
Eric Wise, fire meteorologist for the Northwest Coordination Center, said his level of concern was “about a 6 or 7,” on a scale of 1 to 10 (with 10 representing the Labor Day fire conditions).
'A concerning forecast'
While August is traditionally Oregon’s busiest month for wildfires, early September tends to be the most explosive, especially when hot and dry east winds are involved — a weather phenomenon associated with the largest wildfire spreads in state history.
The 2022 wildfire season has been fairly quiet compared to recent years, but that could change in a hurry.
“This is a concerning forecast for western Oregon, but we’re also not expecting anything like the winds we saw back in 2020,” Wise said. “The good news is that it’s not as bad as it could be, if that makes sense.”
The time periods of greatest concern are Wednesday and then Friday into early Saturday.
Tuesday and Wednesday will both be hot, with an unstable atmosphere that could bring hot and breezy conditions and perhaps create dry thunderstorms. A red flag warning is currently in effect across much of the state.
Widespread thunderstorms aren’t anticipated, but the ones that do develop are likely to come with little, if any, rainfall, meaning lightning strikes could kick into fires swiftly with no rain to extinguish them.
“Given the very dry fuels, any lightning strike would be quite efficient in starting a fire,” Wise said. “And on the other hand, there is concern about gusty conditions spreading existing fires beyond their control lines.”
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Friday, Saturday east winds
The more pressing concern comes Friday and into Saturday, Wise said, when the arrival of east winds is now being forecast. Unlike the moisture-laden winds from the Pacific, east winds have a tendency to dry out over the Cascade Range and sweep down into western Oregon like a blast furnace.
Weather models are projecting sustained winds speeds around 20 mph with gusts in excess of 40 mph in the Columbia Gorge, with the force declining further to the south.
That’s decent news for the large active fire in Central Oregon, the Cedar Creek Fire, which is burning in Lane and Deschutes counties and about 12 miles from Oakridge. The fire, next to Waldo Lake, is already almost 18,000 acres and growth appears likely.
But how much growth is unclear, Wise said.
Heading to Waldo Lake? Fire officials recommend looking elsewhere as Cedar Creek grows
The anticipated east wind events have fire managers alarmed, Ron Graham, ODF's Fire Protection Division, said in Wednesday during a Board of Forestry meeting on the 2022 fire season.
"The forecast for the next week is pretty bad. It's one of the worst forecasts we've seen, probably the worst forecast we've seen all year," Graham said. "Today is the two-year anniversary of the Labor Day Fires in 2020. So when I look at Cedar Creek and the ability for that fire to move east, it's hard not to think about what occurred in 2020."
The Cedar Creek Fire is burning on federal land, but Graham said ODF is concerned anticipated east winds could move the fire west toward Oakridge. The fire currently is moving eastward, but the western perimeter could be threatened if the winds change the fire's trajectory, Graham said.
"The community of Oakridge is the biggest concern. It's about 9 1/2 to 10 miles from the fire's west perimeter back toward Oakridge, but it's aligned in a significant drainage that with the east winds could create problems," Graham said.
Other wildfires likely to be impacted include the Rum Creek Fire in southwest Oregon above the Rogue River, and the Double Creek, Sturgill and Nebo fires in the Wallowa Mountains of northeast Oregon.
Wise wasn't sure if the winds would be powerful enough to knock down trees and ignite power line fires, but he noted that weather models have been changing and more information will be available later in the week.
Will power be shut off?
The Statesman Journal asked Pacific Power and PGE, Oregon’s two largest utilities, whether they’ll consider power shutdowns to limit wildfire danger.
"The Pacific Power meteorology team is closely monitoring the potential for gusty east winds and low humidity across portions of our service territory late this week," Pacific Power spokesman Drew Hanson said in an email. "If a combination of high heat, extremely low humidity and strong winds materializes, we are prepared to turn off power to reduce wildfire risks. If the need to shut off power should develop, our goal is to notify potentially affected customers 48 hours in advance so they have time to prepare."
Portland General Electric added a similar sentiment, but added: "It’s too early to say whether a Public Safety Power Shutoff may be called," spokeswoman Andrea Platt said.
The semi-good news is that better conditions, including cooler temperatures and possibly even rain, are expected next week.
“We are past the peak of traditional wildfire season with the shorter days and cooler nights, and next week does look quite a bit better, so we’re just keeping our fingers crossed to get through this week,” Wise said.
Oregon's historic east winds
Oregon has had problems with east winds for decades, well before the 2020 Labor Day fires.
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A 1957 study by the U.S. Forest Service described how east winds fueled the Tillamook Burn of 1933 and the Bandon Fire of 1936, which killed 11 people and burned the coastal town in what remains the deadliest fire event in Oregon history.
More recently, east winds fueled the original run of the 2017 Eagle Creek Fire in the Columbia Gorge and a major run of the 2003 B&B Complex — both in September.
“There is a close relation between occurrences of severe easterly winds and large forest fires in northwest Oregon and southwest Washington,” study author Owen P. Cramer wrote. “With the east winds comes the dreaded combination of low humidity and high wind that in the past has whipped small fires into conflagrations.”
Wise added:
“The reason east winds are so problematic is they’re dry to begin with, and as they come up and over the mountains, they dry out and warm up even more before speeding up down the mountains. So in addition to the wind hitting the fire, it’s also drying out the environment and making it prime for ignition at the same time. It gives any fire it hits a boost that can spread them beyond containment lines.”
An extreme version of that is what happened Labor Day 2020, when the strongest east winds for September in recorded history hit the Pacific Northwest during the season’s driest months, hitting 90 MPH in some places.
It was essentially a dry hurricane hitting active wildfires, or fires sparked by downed power lines that were whipped into a frenzy.
Zach Urness has been an outdoors reporter in Oregon for 15 years and is host of the Explore Oregon Podcast. To support his work, subscribe to the Statesman Journal. Urness is the author of “Best Hikes with Kids: Oregon” and “Hiking Southern Oregon.” He can be reached at zurness@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6801. Find him on Twitter at @ZachsORoutdoors.
This article originally appeared on Salem Statesman Journal: Oregon wildfires could spread rapidly with dreaded east winds forecast
