Crime, abortion among issues likely to take center stage at first governor debate

Sep. 30—As the two main candidates for governor prepare for their first televised debate, viewers can likely expect a stark contrast between the two when it comes to addressing crime, education, abortion and the economy.

Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, a Democrat, will face off against former TV weatherman Mark Ronchetti, a Republican, in the first of two scheduled television debates at 7 p.m. Friday on KOB-TV.

KOAT-TV, the Albuquerque Journal and KKOB-AM plan to host the second debate Oct. 12.

Lujan Grisham's campaign sent out a news release Thursday saying she will demonstrate "how effective she is at getting the state government to work for the people of New Mexico."

That release said Lujan Grisham will work to contrast her experience in government against Ronchetti's lack of experience. "He might know how to smile and speak to a camera, but when it comes to the real-life work it takes to lead state government, Ronchetti will be starting with exactly zero leadership experience, zero business experience and zero experience in public service."

That release said abortion will be "a defining issue of the debate."

Ronchetti's campaign spokesman Ryan Sabel wrote in an email, "The governor is a career politician and lawyer who has participated in many debates throughout her career in government, but she will have a challenge explaining her record with respect to the state's out of control crime, New Mexico ranking last in education, and families struggling to make it to the end of the month.

"Mark is looking forward to presenting his plans for a new way forward for New Mexico, one that will restore our public safety, improve our schools, and provide sustained economic relief for New Mexico families."

Meanwhile, some supporters of Libertarian candidate Karen Bedonie have questioned why she was not included in Friday's debate.

KOB-TV vice president and general manager Michelle Donaldson wrote in an email Wednesday that the station determined Bedonie "did not meet the criteria that we have long used here," which includes reviewing the most recent presidential election results to see if the party's candidate received at least 5 percent of the vote.

Libertarian Party presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen earned just 1.2 percent of the national vote in 2020 and 1.4 percent of the vote in New Mexico.

"It is tempting to make an exception in this case," Donaldson wrote. "However doing so would leave us open to even more criticism about inconsistency and past or future decisions. The goal of having criteria is to be certain voters hear from the candidates with the most viable campaign."

Attempts to reach Bedonie for comment were unsuccessful.

In terms of the debate format, Donaldson wrote each of the two candidates will give a 90-second opening statement and a 60-second closing statement. "In between is a question and answer session, with rebuttals as determined by the moderators," she wrote.

Recent polls indicate Lujan Grisham holds a lead over her Republican challenger.

Whether Bedonie's candidacy will impact the election Nov. 8 is unclear. A recent Albuquerque Journal poll said Bedonie had the support of 5 percent of likely voters, through her support was higher — 14 percent — among independent, minor party and Libertarian voters.

Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff said based on his review of Bedonie's campaign, she's making it clear she is "pro-life, pro-gun rights, pro-God." Her conservative bent could pull away some Ronchetti voters who feel he is too moderate, he said.

Bedonie could also eat into former Lujan Grisham voters who may no longer support her but do not wish to vote for Ronchetti, he said.

Still, Sanderoff said the results of the election would have to be close for those lost votes to make a difference in the final outcome of the race.

Regarding the debate, Sanderoff said he expects Lujan Grisham to try to persuade voters she deserves a second term by playing up her record, including her support for abortion rights. Ronchetti, by contrast, has the challenge of persuading voters that she does not deserve a second round, he said.

"To do that, you have to be on the more aggressive side of challenging the incumbent and persuading voters that, 'No, she has had her four years so it's time for a change,' " he said of Ronchetti. "He'll tout his own programs but question her policies in an aggressive manner."

Sanderoff said crime, abortion, education and the economy are bound to be at the forefront of the debate because they are issues "that people are talking about at the dinner table."

New Mexico has ranked near or at the bottom of many national reports on public education for years, and Ronchetti recently announced a plan to pay up to $100 million for tutors to help "catch up" younger students struggling with math and reading because of the pandemic. He also wants to pay school leaders at least $100,000 and give them more autonomy to run their schools with the hope they can mirror successful business models.

But Ronchetti drew fire for running an ad spotlighting the state's high crime rates in which he spoke of his family being the target of a home invasion as an example of Lujan Grisham being soft on crime. Critics say he failed to make it clear the incident occurred a decade ago, when former Gov. Susana Martinez, a Republican, was in office.

Violent crime continues to plague the state. A Legislative Finance Committee report released late in 2021 said New Mexico's violent crime rate increased 30 percent between 2014 and 2020. The report also said New Mexico State Police investigated 17 homicides in fiscal year 2021, up from 10 in fiscal year 2020, and that Albuquerque experienced 117 homicides — surpassing previous records set in that city — in calendar year 2021.

Though lawmakers passed a sweeping crime bill during the last legislative session, Democrats and Republicans in the Legislature have said the issue is likely to be a priority in the 2023 session, scheduled to begin in mid-January. Earlier this week, Ronchetti's campaign released a video ad noting the national director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation called a recent fentanyl bust in Albuquerque the "largest" in the bureau's history and said some of the criminals arrested told federal agents they had come to New Mexico to operate because of lax criminal penalties.

"No wonder criminals choose New Mexico," the ad proclaims.

Meanwhile, since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, abortion has also become one of the main issues in this race. Lujan Grisham, who signed a law in 2021 repealing New Mexico's pre-Roe abortion ban and recently pledged to use $10 million in her capital outlay money to build a clinic near the Texas border that would provide abortion services and other reproductive health care, has made her abortion stance a cornerstone of her reelection bid.

A recent Lujan Grisham ad accuses Ronchetti of "flip flopping" on the abortion issue and says voting for her is the "only way to ensure a woman's access to abortion." Ronchetti has said he believes abortion should be legal for the first 15 weeks of pregnancy and in cases of pregnancies involving rape, incest or when a mother's life is at risk.

But that claim came into question in July when the pastor of an Albuquerque megachurch told his congregation Ronchetti said that to get elected, after which he would work to outlaw abortion. In a statement, Smotherman later walked back his comments.

Ronchetti recently called for letting voters decide on the issue with a constitutional amendment.

One advantage for both candidates is Friday is the first of the two planned debates, meaning either or both of them could misstep or commit a faux pas they can recover from in the second go-round.

And, Sanderoff said, either side can take a "bad moment" on the part of their opponent and turn it into an attack ad of some sort if it's a "real embarrassing moment."

Sanderoff is not expecting that though.

"I don't anticipate that because these are seasoned professionals ... in front of a TV camera," he said.