A COVID spike is expected after the holidays. What you can do right now to prepare.

With the emergence of the omicron variant, local hospital leaders are preparing for a spike in COVID-19 cases following upcoming holiday gatherings.

A study published last week by the COVSIM modeling team – made up of scientists from the University of North Carolina, North Carolina State University and Georgia Tech — suggests that omicron could break COVID-19 records in North Carolina.

Some key takeaways from that report:

• Hospitalization records might break: The study estimates that hospitalizations in the state could exceed levels reached at the peak of the pandemic in January 2021 within the first few months of the new year.

• Keep using masks, get your booster: But, the widespread adoption of booster shots and continued mask use could significantly blunt the surge, the group said. If the use of boosters doesn’t increase, hospitalizations could increase three- or six-fold.

How do we prepare for this?

The N&O spoke to Dr. Julie Swann, head of the Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering at North Carolina State University and an adviser to the CDC during its response to the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, and Dr. Matthew Koci, a virologist at NC State.

They shared tips to help us all prepare for this post-holiday COVID-19 spike around the state — in addition to what we already know about getting vaccinated, wearing masks and gathering outdoors when possible.

How to prepare for a COVID spike after the holidays

Koci and Swann recommended keeping these items in your home over the next few weeks:

At-home tests: The antigen tests aren’t as sensitive as the PCR test, but they are really good at detecting people who are infectious, which is the most important thing in limiting transmission, Koci said.

• These tests appear to detect the omicron variant. If you can’t find the antigen tests, then make sure you know where all the free testing sites are around you. There are several free testing locations sponsored by county health departments and pharmacy chains. Most send you results back within 12-24 hours. (Not as great as 15 minutes, but better than two to five days, he said.)

• Tip: Check out The N&O’s guide to at-home tests. Learn where you can buy them, how to use them and how effective they are.

Filtration systems: Remember, the virus is airborne, Koci said. That means you don’t even need to be in the same room with the infected person to catch it.

• In addition to masks, you need to make sure you get the virus particles out of the air. Open a window. Set up air filters. Ensure you’re going places where this is done: your office, your church, your restaurants and all other indoor spaces.

• Tip: A cheap but effective solution is to construct a Corsi-Rosenthal box using a cheap fan and HEPA filters you can get online or at a hardware store. “They aren’t much to look at. They aren’t going to get you on the cover of Southern Living, but they get the job done,” Koci said.

Emergency household supplies: “I recommend all households have enough supplies at home to be prepared for emergencies, just as they would before a hurricane,” Swann said.

• We should prepare for this new variant to cause workforce absenteeism across the country, Swann said. This is another reason to ensure you’re well stocked at the beginning of the new year.

• Tip: Use the same shopping list as you would when preparing for a hurricane, Swann said. Get your clean water, nonperishable goods and medical supplies. Prepare to hunker down during the post-holiday expected spike.

Better masks: “Masks are still the simplest and most effective tool we have,” Koci told The N&O. “Cloth masks or even surgical style masks were sufficient back in 2020 with the original strain and alpha, but they are less effective against delta, and they are going to be even less effective against omicron. People need to wear better fitting, higher quality masks.”

• “Think of [masking] like chipping golf balls at a chain link fence. The golf balls can fit through the holes in the chain link. Some will bounce off, but a lot will make it through,” Koci said. “Now imagine you have three layers of chain link each offset so that the cross patterns in one are centered in the holes of the one in front of it. How many golf balls are getting through now? That’s how masks work. Are they 100% effective? No, nothing is. But they are an important part of a good layered defense approach.”

• Tip: If you need help understanding the difference between masks, Koci recommends watching Aaron Collins’ YouTube videos, in which he tests different kinds of masks for both children and adults.

How to protect yourself from COVID over the holiday season

If you’re not vaccinated, get vaccinated: There are two caveats to this instruction, Koci said.

• First: If you’re just getting your first shot now, it will take five to six weeks until you’ll get the full benefits from the vaccine (two weeks after the second shot). Second: If you’re vaccinated and boosted, there’s still a chance you can get infected with delta and omicron, but your chances of getting seriously sick and your ability to spread it are lower than if you’re unvaccinated.

• So while vaccination is important, it isn’t 100% effective — just like masks, Koci said. They are another key part of the layered defense.

Keep your mask on: The suggestion on how to protect yourself, your family and your community is the same as it’s always been: wear a mask.

• Avoid being unmasked around people who aren’t in your immediate household. Be smart about groups and crowds. Especially crowded gatherings indoors, but even crowds outside where there’s going to be a lot of singing, or people might be close to one another.

• Tip: Double masking, or using a reusable brace that fits over your surgical style mask, can greatly improve the level of protection you get, Koci said.

Require vaccines, tests to attend parties: Tell your guests they must be vaccinated to come to your party, Koci said.

• Get tested as close to the event as possible, and only attend the party if your test is negative, Koci said.

• Tip: If you can get your hands on rapid antigen tests, have everyone coming to the event take a test immediately before. (“Like, in their car in the driveway before walking in the house,” Koci said.)

Get tested immediately after gatherings: After the party, when everyone gets back home to their respective bubbles, you should quarantine and test again.

• Test as soon as you can after the party, then again five to seven days later. If you test positive for either or both of these tests, you need to isolate, Koci said.

• Tip: Find out your nearby testing sites, and make appointments in advance. Take advantage of NCDHH’s website: “There are many free testing events, and some with rapid antigen tests,” said UNC Family Medicine’s Dr. Amir Barzin.