COVID-19 cases rise in region for ninth straight week

Brian Arola, The Free Press, Mankato, Minn.
·2 min read

May 21—MANKATO — South-central Minnesota combined for a ninth straight week of rising COVID-19 cases.

The nine area counties combined for 345 newly confirmed cases between May 14-20, according to Minnesota Department of Health data. The prior week had 333 cases.

Although confirmed case counts underestimate COVID-19 levels in communities — at-home test results aren't counted — this week's 4% increase was at least a marked improvement from the 42% jump last week.

More level case counts from week to week indicate COVID-19 growth could be slowing down. They also signal the region's latest wave may have peaked, but what appeared to be a slowdown earlier in May gave way to a jump the following week.

Overall, this week's COVID-19 metrics were a mixed bag, making it hard to predict which direction they'll go in the coming weeks, said Derek J. Wingert, a local data analyst who's tracked COVID-19 during the pandemic.

"In the aggregate I'd say there's maybe a hint that perhaps things will slow down a bit," he said. "But it's really at one of those inflection points where it's either going to decrease from here or explode from here."

Evidence for a decrease being on the horizon includes the south-central region's relatively small percentage uptick this week and a decline in cases statewide. On the other hand, COVID-19 levels measured in the region's wastewater treatment facilities are still on the rise and some of the highest new case rates in the state are in counties with the highest populations — COVID-19 trends in south-central Minnesota tend to lag behind what happens in the Twin Cities metro.

Hospitalization metrics are another mixed bag.

Total COVID-19 hospitalizations have trended up since late March statewide, reaching their highest points since mid-August. Yet intensive care unit hospitalizations for COVID-19 aren't noticeably rising, suggesting a combination of therapeutics and immunity gained from vaccines or prior infections are preventing worst-case scenarios.

COVID-19 death counts have picked up a bit so far this month. Minnesota had 59 confirmed COVID-19 fatalities through the first 15 days of May, compared to 45 through the first 15 days of April.

The south-central region's 4% uptick in new cases this week was fueled by seven of the nine counties having increased or level case counts. Only Nicollet and Le Sueur counties had fewer cases this week than the prior week.

Blue Earth County's weekly case count was about level, rising from 92 to 95.

Follow Brian Arola @BrianArola{/em}