Congressional Dems think Social Security will sway voters

Oct. 16—CONCORD — Almost in unison, the forces backing all three New Hampshire Democratic incumbents up for reelection in Congress attacked their Republican opponents for opening the door to dismantling Social Security and Medicare.

The question remains whether seniors who are swing voters can be swayed on this topic since, for a decade, the effort to privatize these entitlements has gone nowhere, even during the four years Donald Trump was president.

Every two years, social conservatives warn voters their right to own guns will be at risk if Democrats get control of all the levers of power in Washington.

Just as predictably, liberal groups warn if Republicans get back in power, they will tear to shreds the retirement safety net for seniors.

Even the League of Conservation Voters (LCV), a group usually concerned with climate change and environmental protection, got into the act with a $3 million ad buy on Sen. Maggie Hassan's behalf.

The 30-second ad warns Republican Senate nominee Don Bolduc will try to privatize Social Security.

"Over time, we no longer have Social Security," Bolduc said, a statement he made not during this election but while running for the Senate in 2020.

Last August at a town hall meeting Bolduc did say "Privatization is hugely important."

The candidate and campaign have since insisted he would oppose privatization efforts.

"From wanting to destroy Medicare and Social Security to enthusiastically supporting the Big Lie, Don Bolduc is a flip-flopping MAGA extremist through and through," said Eva Estrada, LCV Victory Fund regional campaigns director.

The Union Leader obtained an audio of a brief exchange Bolduc had on Oct. 10.

"We've got a lot of work to do to protect it, get the money back into it and making sure nobody messes with it," Bolduc said of Social Security.

The questioner then asks, "Do you think you could work with some senators to find a way to start the private investment accounts?"

Bolduc answered, "That's right, yeah."

The Bolduc campaign denied Bolduc had endorsed privatization.

"This false attack is tired and played out. Senator Hassan and her flailing campaign are clearly desperate, trying anything they can to scare voters because she knows they are sick and tired of her and her abysmal voting record on rising inflation, skyrocketing heating oil costs, and crushing gas prices," said Kate Constantini, a campaign spokeswoman.

"Granite Staters won't take the bait on this pathetic attack."

Pappas and Kuster claim foes can't be trusted

The House Democratic Majority PAC backing Rep. Chris Pappas and Rep. Annie Kuster's own campaigns put up ads warning voters these entitlements were in danger if 1st Congressional District nominee Karoline Leavitt or 2nd District nominee Bob Burns replace them.

"There's a huge difference between where I stand and where my opponent stands on this issue," Pappas said. "I want to fight to protect Social Security. Seniors in New Hampshire who have paid into this for a lifetime want to be able to retire with dignity. My opponent wants to literally write the legislation to privatize Social Security."

Leavitt charged Pappas was lying, saying she only endorsed allowing private retirement accounts for those not yet in the workforce.

She vowed to oppose a bill that changed the rules for anyone now paying into Social Security.

"Unlike career politicians like Chris Pappas, I recognize that for Americans who have not even entered the workforce, my generation, those younger than I, we need to look at long term sustainable solutions because this is a challenge our country has faced for years," Leavitt, 25, said last week.

Kuster's fourth TV ad featured Maureen, a New London resident who said Kuster would fight anyone "in either party" who wants to cut Social Security or Medicare.

"It's disturbing Bob Burns pledged to join the most extreme members of Congress that want to cut the Social Security and Medicare benefits that we earned," the narrator said.

The evidence the Kuster campaign produced was a radio interview Burns did last month in which he "absolutely" endorsed the work of the Freedom Caucus.

The group in the past has endorsed privatization of Social Security.

Burns said he has always been opposed to the idea.

"She's obviously trying to use this as a wedge issue like they all are and her claim is 100% false. I have never supported privatizing Social Security and it's a dead-in-the-water issue," Burns said.

"I like the Freedom Caucus but I don't agree 100% with what comes from every one of their members."

While the political fallout was an open question, Social Security remained in the news.

The Biden administration announced starting in January, Social Security retirees get a 8.7% cost-of-living bump, the biggest one in 40 years. It reflects the fact inflation under Biden is the highest it has been in four decades.

Last June, the trustees for the Social Security fund said the program would be unable to pay all its benefits starting in 2035, one year later than they forecast a year ago.

As for Medicare, its trust fund would face a shortfall starting in 2028, two years later than they had predicted in 2021.

Contrary to popular belief, both shortfalls are "manageable" and neither program is in danger of going bankrupt for the next 75 years, trustees said.

If Congress does nothing by the new deadlines, benefit payments will continue.

Greg Moore, state director of fiscally conservative Americans for Prosperity, said this is a phony crisis and informed seniors will not buy it.

"The bottom line is this is one of those crying wolf campaigns. This has been used so often and nothing changes that it no longer has the same impact," Moore said.

Issue hit home in campaign 14 years ago

The last time the issue cut with voters here was when then-U.S. Sen. John E. Sununu co-authored optional private retirement account legislation in 2005 for those under 55 years old.

Democratic challenger Jeanne Shaheen used the issue to great advantage to help her win a 2008 rematch with Sununu, Moore said.

"Unlike abortion and other hot-button issues, there's no legislation on Capitol Hill that's even been talked about in 2022," Moore said.

Social Security and Medicare did not rank among the top 10 issues for likely voters, according to a University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll last month.

But Chris Galdieri, professor of politics at Saint Anselm College, said senior citizens stay abreast of this debate and are influenced by it.

"It's not an academic discussion to them; it's a concrete, day-to-day thing they deal with," Galdieri said.

"New Hampshire is one of the country's oldest states, which means there's an even bigger audience."

AARP-New Hampshire last week said 84% of those over 50 in its poll said they were more likely to vote for someone who will protect Social Security and Medicare from budget cuts.

Pollster Bob Ward said among those likely voters, 88% said they were "extremely motivated" to vote.

Yet while Hassan led Bolduc by 12 points among those over 65, Bolduc beat Hassan by 7 points among 50-to-64 year olds.

"There are clearly different flavors in over 50 voters," Ward said.

Galdieri said this strategy could be most effective for Democrats to keep their base energized over these final, three weeks.

"Keep in mind. More than most voters, what seniors have is time so they may be more likely to respond to this by volunteering to make calls or knock on doors for their candidates," Galdieri said.

klandrigan@unionleader.com