In close 1st CD race, both candidates talking past one another
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Sep. 25—Politically, Chris Pappas and Karoline Leavitt are ships passing in the night.
Pappas, the Democratic incumbent 1st District congressman, is determined to portray Leavitt, his November opponent, as a Trump MAGA Republican, someone too extreme to represent the district, one of fewer than 50 "swing" seats in the 435-person U.S. House of Representatives.
Leavitt knows her ticket to victory is to cast Pappas as the captive of an uber-liberal House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, someone who too often has been a dependable "yes" vote for what Leavitt says is a federal spending spree that has made runaway inflation even worse.
"I think they are really going to spend this entire general election talking past each other while refusing to surrender the ground on which each thinks they have the upper hand," said Dante Scala, professor of politics at the University of New Hampshire.
"For Pappas, that ground is abortion, and for Leavitt it's the economy."
Consider this: 81% of New Hampshire Democrats in the latest poll said abortion is the most or second-most important issue to them, while inflation ranked that high among only 22% of them.
Among Republicans, 78% said inflation was that important; only 3% said abortion was.
These two come to this close race with different levels of experience.
At a youthful-looking 42, the Manchester-born Pappas has been at this awhile, having won 10 elections — for state representative, executive councilor and congressman.
Last week's polling by UNH had Pappas leading 50% to 43%, a virtual dead heat with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.
"Chris Pappas is really not very popular right now, probably near the lowest favorability he'd had since first getting elected," said Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
Leavitt has never run for elective office before.
She only officially became eligible to serve as a member of Congress on Aug. 24, when she turned 25. Her campaign says that if elected, she would be the youngest member of Congress in history.
As the new phenomenon in the 2022 election cycle, Leavitt stunned political observers on Sept. 13, not just by knocking off 2020 GOP nominee Matt Mowers, but by beating Mowers by 9 percentage points in a crowded field.
Jack Heath, a radio talk show host and former congressional candidate, chalked it up to Leavitt's communication skills, which she honed working for WMUR-TV and as an assistant press secretary in the Trump White House.
"She can take a tough question and come up with a tight, coherent response that drives her point home five times," Heath said of Leavitt last week. "Very few candidates and a lot of incumbents can't do that."
The UNH poll revealed Leavitt's biggest challenge, however, remains name recognition. Among likely voters, 22% said they didn't know enough to have any opinion of her.
"The good news is she's got room to grow. The bad news is she's got to keep from being defined as unacceptable by Pappas and his allies," Smith said.
That's why Leavitt's first general election campaign ad, which debuted Friday, tried to introduce voters to her while contrasting her with Pappas.
The 30-second spot began with an image of Pappas with Pelosi and President Joe Biden without mentioning him by name.
"We all have to balance our pocketbooks; Washington should have to do the same," Leavitt says during one of her town hall sessions.
"We must stop the spending in Washington. That is the only way to get prices to go down, and that's what I promise to do as your next congresswoman."
The narrator concludes, "A common sense leader fighting for us."
Gender factor
UNH's Smith said Leavitt should do more to promote her gender.
That's because political scientists have concluded, all things being equal, a woman running against a man has a built-in advantage with voters of about 3%.
"This reflects the reality more women will vote for the female candidate for that reason than men will," Smith said.
Since the 2012 election, three of the four members of New Hampshire's congressional delegation have been female. In 2018, Pappas replaced Dover Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, who retired after winning four of the previous six 1st District elections.
Last week, Pappas highlighted Leavitt's view that the 2020 presidential election was not fairly decided.
Leavitt said it was "preposterous" to think Biden actually got 81 million votes, and she was the only candidate in the GOP primary to openly question the validity of the result.
"She has made election denier and casting doubt on our democracy a centerpiece of her campaign," Pappas said. "I am committed to accepting the results of the 2022 elections. I trust our election officials and I trust the verdict that the voters will pass on in November and I would hope Karoline Leavitt does the same."
Leavitt said Pappas only wants to change the subject from what voters really care about.
"I have no issue committing to accepting the results because I know we are going to defeat Chris Pappas and his Puppet Master Nancy Pelosi in November. This political stunt shows just how afraid of our campaign they truly are," Leavitt said.
"Since Chris wants to distract from the issues by talking about this, let me make my position clear, there is nothing extreme about wanting the American people to have confidence in our election system."
