Will the Citrus Bowl pick Kentucky football? Comparing resumes with Arkansas, Texas A&M

Jon Hale, Louisville Courier Journal
·6 min read

LEXINGTON – The final weekend of college football’s regular season could not have gone much better for Kentucky football’s bowl prospects.

A blowout of archrival Louisville was the kind of emphatic closing statement Kentucky needed to recover momentum from its midseason losing streak. Wins for Alabama and Ole Miss secured their spots in the New Year’s Six bowls, even if Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC championship game and falls out of the playoff.

Most surprisingly, LSU’s upset of Texas A&M put the Citrus Bowl back on the table for Kentucky.

The Citrus Bowl, scheduled for Jan. 1 in Orlando, has first pick of available SEC teams after the playoff selection committee fills the New Year’s Six bowls. Texas A&M, Kentucky and Arkansas look like the three options for the game.

In most years, the Citrus Bowl has simply taken the highest-ranked available SEC team in the CFP poll, but the USA TODAY Coaches Poll and Associated Press top 25 are already split on how to rank those three SEC teams. The Citrus Bowl also has established a precedent for avoiding recent selectees when it took No. 21 LSU over No. 15 Florida in 2016 because the Gators had played in the game the previous season.

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There is a compelling case to be made for each of Texas A&M, Arkansas and Kentucky to be picked by the Citrus Bowl, but nebulous factors like projected ticket sales and TV matchups that are hard to predict also will likely factor in the decision.

The two teams passed over by the Citrus Bowl would likely then compete for the SEC’s spot in the Jan. 1 Outback Bowl in Tampa, Florida. The Outback Bowl is part of a group of SEC-affiliated bowls known as the “Pool of Six” that all have equal standing in the SEC’s pecking order but offer varying levels of historic significance. One of Texas A&M, Kentucky and Arkansas will miss out on the two New Year’s Day Florida bowls and head to the Gator Bowl, Music City Bowl, Texas Bowl, Duke’s Mayo Bowl or Liberty Bowl.

The SEC assigns teams to the bowls in the “Pool of Six,” taking into account the preferences of both the schools and bowls. Avoiding repeat bowl trips and matchups is a primary goal in the process, so UK is unlikely to go to the Gator Bowl, where it played last season, or Duke’s Mayo Bowl, where it played in 2019 when the game was known as the Belk Bowl.

So, how with the Citrus Bowl and SEC rank Texas A&M, Arkansas and Kentucky? Here is the case for each.

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Kentucky (9-3, 5-3)

Why the Citrus Bowl could take Kentucky: The case for UK is simple. The Wildcats have the best overall record of any of the teams expected to be available for selection and are the only SEC team outside of the New Year’s Six with a winning record in league play. While Kentucky’s strength of schedule has been criticized, the Wildcats have beaten five bowl eligible teams. The USA TODAY Coaches Poll ranks Kentucky highest of the three teams at No. 22. If Iowa, Mark Stoops’ alma mater, is the Big Ten selection for the Citrus Bowl, a matchup with Kentucky could be appealing.

Why the Citrus Bowl would not take Kentucky: Does anyone think Kentucky would still be 9-3 if it played in the SEC West like Texas A&M and Arkansas? The Wildcats' wins against bowl eligible teams have all come against 6-6 squads. UK has not beaten a team with a winning record this season. Associated Press voters rank Kentucky lowest of the trio at No. 25, a ranking the playoff committee will likely duplicate Tuesday considering both Texas A&M and Arkansas were ranked a week ago while Kentucky was not. Kentucky has also played in the Citrus Bowl most recently of the three teams in the 2018 season.

Arkansas (8-4, 4-4)

Why the Citrus Bowl could take Arkansas: The Associated Press voters ranked Arkansas highest of the three teams at No. 23. Thanks to Arkansas’s head-to-head win over Texas A&M, the playoff committee could do the same on Tuesday. Three of Arkansas’s four losses came against top-10 teams. In addition to the win over Texas A&M, Arkansas beat Mississippi State, which handed Kentucky one of its three losses. The Razorbacks have not played in the Citrus Bowl since the 2006 season. With Sam Pittman taking Arkansas to a bowl in his second season as coach, fans should be excited enough to buy bowl tickets in droves.

Why the Citrus Bowl would not take Arkansas: The best selling point on Arkansas’s resume was its win over Texas A&M, which suddenly looks less impressive as the Aggies cling to a spot in the back end of the top 25. A marquee nonconference win over Texas carries little weight thanks to the Longhorns’ 5-7 record. With the resumes so close, having one more loss than Kentucky could be the factor that keeps Arkansas from Orlando.

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Texas A&M (8-4, 4-4)

Why the Citrus Bowl could take Texas A&M: Before its loss to LSU in the regular season finale, Texas A&M looked like a lock for the Citrus Bowl. Perhaps one loss was not enough to change that outlook. Texas A&M has never played in the Citrus Bowl, offering some novelty for the game. The Aggies boast the best win of any of the three teams with the Oct. 9 upset of Alabama.

Why the Citrus Bowl would not take Texas A&M: All other things being equal, it would be a hard sell to choose Texas A&M over Arkansas due to the head-to-head result. Texas A&M is in the worst form of the three teams after losing two of its final three games. The Aggies are the biggest “brand name” of the three programs but is that enough to overcome fans’ disappointment over the finish to the season to sell more tickets that Arkansas or Kentucky?

Kentucky football bowl projections

  • Mark Schlabach (ESPN): Citrus Bowl versus Iowa

  • Kyle Bonagura (ESPN): Gator Bowl versus Wake Forest

  • Stewart Mandel (The Athletic): Citrus Bowl versus Iowa

  • Jerry Palm (CBSSports): Outback Bowl versus Wisconsin

  • Brett McMurphy (Action Network): Citrus Bowl versus Iowa

Email Jon Hale at jahale@courier-journal.com; Follow him on Twitter at @JonHale_CJ.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky football bowl projections: Citrus Bowl back on the table