CIAC football playoff picture remains chaotic
Nov. 9—Killingly may qualify for the CIAC Class M football playoffs with a home win on Friday night over Norwich Free Academy.
Emphasis on "may."
The CIAC's playoff system has new variables that require a roundtable of MIT math majors to accurately figure out which teams have mathematically qualifed in a timely fashion.
Also worth noting: Teams don't "officially" qualify until playoff participants are rubber-stamped by the CIAC's football committee the day after the end of the regular season.
The CIAC approved a new "strength of schedule" formula to its points system this season whereby a team receives five points for every win by an opponent regardless of whether they beat them or not.
Previously, a team was awarded 10 points for every win by an opponent it beat. Now teams get those points in addition to the the new strength of schedule points.
Another big problem — there's the possibility games get canceled over the final three weeks of the regular season due to COVID-19. That issue could result in a team mathematically qualifying, only to lose points because a game gets canceled and face the possiblity of falling out of consideration.
Should one's head be spinning trying to process this, then imagine just how tricky and time consuming it would be to accurately figure out (with pencil, a calculator and lots of paper) which teams mathematically qualify over the final three weeks.
All that written, Killingly (7-0) is the only unbeaten team left in Class M with two games remaining. Following the NFA game, it hosts Woodstock Academy (6-2) on Thanksgiving.
The status of its postponed game against East Haven has yet to be resolved. East Haven had to postpone due to COVID issues, but doesn't have much scheduling flexibility with three games remaining. If it were to be ruled a no-contest, Killingly loses a chance at earning playoff points from the Yellowjackets.
It's apropos that the playoff points have become as chaotic as the season.
The top eight teams in each of the four playoff divisions qualify for states.
Here's a quick overview of the other three classes:
CLASS L: Thames River (6-1) is ranked seventh with three games remaining — at winless Wilcox Tech on Saturday, vs. the Abbott Tech/Immaculate co-op (4-3) and Quinebaug Valley (7-1) on Nov. 24.
Fitch (5-2) dropped one spot to No. 11 even after beating Norwich Free Academy last Friday, a good example of how topsy-turvy playoff points can be.
The Falcons, based on past history, likely must win out to have a chance. Just 13 of the 160 playoff participants have qualified with a 7-3 record since the CIAC capped the maximum length of regular season games at 10 in 2015.
Sacred Heart (2010) and Law (2017) are the only teams in CIAC playoff history to qualify with a 6-4 record.
New London (4-3) is way down at No. 23. The Whalers won't earn many points in the final weeks because of their schedule (Guilford is the only team its beaten with a chance at a winning record).
The Whalers host Windham (3-4) on Saturday, play at Wilbur Cross (2-5) on Nov. 19 and host NFA (3-5) on Thanksgiving.
CLASS S: Ledyard (6-2), like Fitch, fell one spot (to No. 12) ever after a win (over Montville last Friday, 64-6).
The Colonels likely must win out to give themselves a chance at qualifying. They play at Woodstock on Saturday in addition to their Thanksgiving game against Fitch.
CLASS LL: NFA is 16th and, based on past history, is likely eliminated from playoff contention with just two games left.
