CFB Week 13 Saturday Player Props Primer

·4 min read

A.T. Perry, Wake Forest | O/U 78.5 Receiving Yards (Draft Kings)

Perry has been a revelation this season after Donavon Greene went down with a season ending knee injury, as the towering outside wideout (6’5/206) has shown a penchant for torching opponents down the field with regularity. He has been nothing short of dominant on passes 20+ yards downfield, earning a 99.9 PFF receiving grade which is the highest in the nation on deep shots, catching 13-of-25 targets for 565 yards and an absurd 9 touchdowns.

Wake Forest takes on a Boston College secondary that has been good...but not great this season. They rank 40th in success rate, 60th in passing explosiveness and 54th in marginal efficiency through the air. Over the past six games, Perry has received 65 targets and converted those opportunities into 5, 100-yard performances over that span. With his O/U set at a very reasonable 78.5 receiving yards, i’m calling for A.T. to hit the OVER on this prop.

Zay Flowers, Boston College | 63.5 Receiving Yards (Draft Kings)

Nobody missed BC QB Phil Jurkovec more than Zay Flowers, as the explosive wideout was plagued by Dennis Grosel’s inconsistency. Over the past two games, Flowers has put up 87 and 92 yard performances thanks to three long touchdown receptions, which is his calling card. This week Flowers will continue to bloom against a Wake Forest defense that allows 6.2 yards per play (120th), 7.6 yards per pass (77th) and a 48% success rate (117th) in addition to ranking 107th in explosiveness.

I think his 63.5 receiving yardage number is too low considering how imminently beatable the Wake Forest defense has been through the air this season. I’m backing the OVER 63.5 on his receiving yardage total.

Devon Williams, Oregon | O/U 38.5 Receiving Yards (Draft Kings)

Oregon’s wide receiver corps has been plagued by attrition heading into their pivotal Civil War matchup against Oregon State with Johnny Johnson and Jaylon Redd confirmed out. Williams himself had issues staying healthy early in the season, as he only had four catches through the first five games due to injury. However in the last six games he has taken over the wide receiver room in Oregon, catching 20 passes for 382 yards and three touchdowns.

Last week against Utah, he caught five-of-10 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown, his highest usage of the season thanks to the aforementioned spate of poor health afflicting the Ducks. He has cleared the 38.5 receiving yards mark in 4 of the last 6 games, and with a rivalry game against a quality opponent in Oregon State on tap, Williams will once again see plenty of targets as the clear number one remaining receiver for the Ducks. I’m bullish on the OVER 38.5 for Williams and feel like there is a fair amount of value available on the Draft Kings wideout slate this week.

TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State | O/U 84.5 Rushing Yards (FanDuel)

HC Ryan Day has been cautious with the true freshman’s workload this season, with Henderson receiving less than 10 carries in five contests, including last week when he rushed just 9 times for 63 yards in a blowout of Michigan State. He generally doesn’t get a lot of work in lopsided affairs, but sees plenty of work in competitive ones.

In his previous game against Purdue, the freshman Phenom saw 13 carries for 98 yards, got 21 carries for 92 yards against Nebraska and saw his highest workload of the season against Penn State, carrying 28 times for 152 yards. He has cleared the 84.5 yard mark in 4 of his last six games, and with a season-defining game against a very good Michigan team on tap this week, I expect a heavy workload out of Treveyon and a strong OVER 84.5 yards showing as a result.

Cornelius Johnson, Michigan | O/U 50.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)

Sticking with the Michigan/Ohio State game, Cornelius Johnson has only crossed the 50-yard mark three times in 11 games, and on one of them he hit just 51 yards. Johnson’s two 100-yard games came against a lowly Indiana team and MAC opponent Northern Illinois.

Ohio State has really turned their defense around this season, as they allow just 6.6 yards per pass (21st) and 1.58 points per drive (15th). Michigan doesn’t throw very much and wants to beat their opponents up with their punishing ground attack behind Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins. Considering Michigan employs a subdued passing attack that ranks 122nd in the country and averages 186 yards per game, i’m going with the UNDER 50.5 on Corny John’s Receiving Yardage against the Buckeyes.

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