Cancelled parties threaten Christmas ruin for pubs and restaurants

For Sophie Bathgate, the grim consequences of more Christmas rail strikes are all too predictable.

Ever since the RMT announced fresh industrial action this week, customers have been on the phone to the London restaurateur cancelling their festive bookings.

Many promise they will rebook when things have calmed down. But that’s little comfort for Bathgate, whose business is facing a bleak festive period for the third year in a row.

The co-owner of Sophie’s Steakhouse, which has branches in Soho and Chelsea, lost one quarter of her December bookings on Tuesday alone.

Rail strikes on December 14, 16 and 17 are to hammer her business on what should have been her busiest week of the year, while further action between Christmas Eve and December 27 will deal another body blow.

Bathgate would normally open on Boxing Day to cater to shoppers flooding into London to snap up high street bargains. But this year she may not bother.

“It’s usually a huge day for us,” she sighs, “but if no one is going to be able to get into the West End, what’s the point?”

Her story is one of many unfolding across the country as Britain’s embattled hospitality businesses become a casualty of nationwide disruption yet again.

The timing could not be worse, with many restaurants and pubs desperately in need of a good Christmas after suffering for two years under pandemic restrictions.

Industry body UKHospitality estimates the sector will take a £1.5bn hit to sales this month because of rail strikes, which are set to blight half of all trading days from December 13 to 27.

Kate Nicholls, UKHospitality’s chief executive, has warned the industrial action will be “hugely damaging”.

“It’s incredibly frustrating that a solution has yet to be reached to avoid this disruption during the golden month of trade for our sector,” she said on Tuesday.

Venues in big cities, which often depend on commuters or diners travelling in by train, are expected to be the worst-hit, as businesses cancel staff Christmas parties.

The resulting costs to hospitality firms can be dear, particularly if cancellations are made last-minute.

Max Yorke, co-owner of award-winning Manchester eatery Another Hand, says every booking counts for his business, which can serve 24 customers at a time.

But during recent rail strikes, many diners discovered their journeys would be disrupted at the last minute – and only rang the night before to cancel.

This leaves Yorke and his colleagues in a tricky situation, as it can be difficult to fill the venue again at such short notice.

“We only opened nine months ago and we have a long waiting list,” he explains, “but you can’t really ring people on a Saturday and expect them not to have made other plans by that point.”

Losing even one table for two means missing out on around £180 of sales. It has prompted the restaurant to put in place fees for no-shows and cancellations of £20 per head, but that doesn’t fully cover losses and Yorke confesses it also “doesn’t sit right” with him.

“It’s a difficult situation, because the last-minute cancellations were damaging the business,” he says. “But of course the problem is that people can’t get to the city centre because of strikes, and that’s out of their control as well as ours. We try to rearrange with people where we can and avoid the fees.”

Another impact of the strikes is on staffing. In a team of seven, one missing worker can make a busy night even more stressful.

Yorke says three of his employees travel to work by train, with strikes making them late for work or meaning they can no longer catch a late service home.

Paying for taxis to ensure they travelled safely cost the business more than £300 last month.

“We’re a small business and with energy bills rising it is already a very difficult climate,” he adds. “The rail strikes are adding to those effects.”

In an attempt to blunt the impact of the coming industrial action, Sacha Lord, Manchester’s night time economy adviser, has urged people to buy vouchers for their friends and family this Christmas that can be spent on meals out in January and February instead.

“When you buy these vouchers, you’ll not only be supporting the venues but also the staff, who get the least hours post Christmas,” he tweeted.

“It might look when you pass a restaurant in the run up to Christmas that a place is bustling and busy, but they are taking on so much debt behind the scenes that come January, February, we’re in danger of losing our local pubs, restaurants, bars, theatres and live music venues.”

Phil Urban, chief executive of pub group Mitchells & Butlers, says the business’ London division misses out on between £300,000 and £400,000 in sales every time strikes take place.

Those figures are likely to be even higher in December.

“If it cost us £300,000 in October or November, you could probably double it for the impact of each day next week,” Urban adds.

“If it runs for four days you might be talking a couple of million quid.”

It’s not all bad news, he adds. “Tubes will still be running and people will still be drinking. If anyone’s telling you they’re going to have to shut their business, they’re in the wrong industry.”

This point is echoed by celebrity chef Tom Kerridge, who owns restaurants in Marlow, Buckinghamshire, and London and predicts the strikes will have a “mixed effect” - depending on your area.

“In many places like Kerridge’s Bar & Grill [in London], the revenues will be hit massively,” he says, while other sites in more suburban or rural areas may end up benefiting as people dine locally instead. 

Kerridge says he sympathises with striking railway workers. “While it affects the hospitality industry and business owners, I think the workforce understands why it’s being done and the devastating effect causes people to talk about it.

“My message to the Government is I cannot believe it’s taken this long to get to this point. We’ve had transport secretaries who weren’t even meeting the unions.

“It could have been headed off with some form of negotiation.”

Whether they agree with the strikes or not, however, the prospect of further disruption is another headache that restaurateurs could do without.

Back in Soho, Bathgate says the brutal trading conditions over the past two years - including soaring inflation - have “obliterated” the headroom in her balance sheet, forcing her to abandon investment plans.

She had hoped to open a new private function room in one of her venues and also wants to replace ageing equipment - “but that has all gone on hold now.”

“If you take away the biggest days of the year, that is basically all your profits gone,” Bathgate adds.

“We are just living with this constant uncertainty and it’s killing business.

“Much as I am sympathetic with the cause, it seems like the whole world is on strike at the moment.

“Hospitality has had a kicking for two years in a row now. The wins you think you are going to be able to rely on just keep getting pulled out from under you. It feels like everything’s in limbo.”

Unless the threat of rail strikes pass, Britain’s restaurants and pubs look set to be stuck in purgatory.