Will California have six more weeks of winter? Groundhog Day prediction isn’t always right
Punxsutawney Phil, the groundhog, took the stage at Gobbler’s Knob in Pennsylvania to make his annual winter prediction for the 137th time.
The popular groundhog saw his shadow, which according to folklore, signals six more weeks of winter for the U.S. — but just how accurate is Phil for California?
West Coast winter has been a cold and very wet one. The year started with a turbulent atmospheric river that dropped several inches of rain across the Golden State. As we kick off February, much of the state is undergoing near-freezing temperatures.
Is California in for six more weeks of winter?
How accurate is Phil the groundhog?
Predicting weather conditions is difficult, especially when forecasting weather outcomes for an entire country — and you’re... a groundhog.
The furry meteorologist has been predicting weather since 1887, and in the last 10 years, Phil has predicted accurately 40% of the time, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Phil has been wrong most of time in the last decade, which begs the question: Can the duration of a country’s winter be determined by the shadow of a groundhog?
According to The National Phenology Network, a weather database collection site, a true sign for the end of winter can be spotted by “the first bloom.” Spring is arriving early for places like Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and southernmost parts of Texas and Florida, according to NPN.
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What is expected in California
While climate scientists can tell us what to expect in the coming days — some rain and snow in Northern California — longer term predictions are difficult, even for humans.
“Overall, the climate system is in transition with little predictability available for the rest of winter,” said Dr. Micheal Anderson, California State Climatologist at the American Association of State Climatologists, in an email to The Bee.
A weather forecast from the National Weather Service is predicting below normal temperatures for the West Coast through February.
The weather service also predicts above normal precipitation levels from Feb. 9 to 15 in most of California.
Groundhog Day history
The tradition of appointing a furry rodent to predict weather conditions started in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, according to the National Weather Service.
In 1886 Clymer H. Freas, the city editor of the local Pennsylvania paper, was “inspired by a local tradition of hunting and cooking groundhogs and dubbed the participants The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.”
Clymer leveraged his editorial capacity and appointed a Punxsutawney groundhog the official weather forecaster. The tradition quickly gained momentum and it’s still highly revered.
Groundhog Day is observed annually on Feb. 2.
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