Buffalo at Kansas City Prediction, Game Preview, AFC Divisional Round

Buffalo at Kansas City prediction, game preview, how to watch: NFL Divisional Round Preview

Buffalo at Kansas City How To Watch

Date: Sunday, January 23
Game Time: 6:30 ET
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
How To Watch: CBS
Record: Buffalo (11-6), Kansas City (12-5)
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Buffalo at Kansas City Divisional Round Game Preview

Why Buffalo Will Win the AFC Divisional Round

When have you ever seen a Bill Belichick-coached team look so utterly helpless?

Buffalo went all Nick Papageorgio on the Patriots. He put a dollar in, he got a car … he put a dollar in, he got a car. Buffalo put the offense on the field, it got a touchdown. It put the offense on the field, it got a touchdown.

Seven drives, seven touchdowns, and a 27-0 lead early, a 47-10 lead late, and a 47-17 win to roll past a team that was supposed to have the defensive makeup and the tough ground game to handle the team and the cold weather elements.

Nope.

Josh Allen threw more touchdown passes (5) than incompletions (4), the running game ripped the Patriots to sheds, and the defense didn’t let the other side to a thing until the game was well over.

How good were the Buffalo lines? New England had one quarterback pressure. That’s it. No sacks, no tackles for loss. Buffalo had three sacks and hit Mac Jones five times.

Ever since the weird weather loss to the Patriots in Week 13 and the shootout loss to Tampa Bay in Week 14, everything has clicked.

The ground game has been fantastic – thank you, Devin Singletary – the defense has been a rock against the run, and now the team with the NFL’s No. 1 overall D gets a Kansas City team that couldn’t handle the Cincinnati offense in Week 17 and is questionable against teams that can throw.

However …

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Why Kansas City Will Win the AFC Divisional Round

Let’s do a whole lot of roll slowing on the greatness of the Buffalo defense.

Over the last seven games it got to go against New England three times. Mac Jones was certainly more than competent, and the ground game was good at times, but that wasn’t exactly the Kansas City offense humming up there in Foxboro.

The Jets, the Falcons, the Panthers, and the Saints. Those four teams – along with the Patriots those three times, and throw in the Jets in there again in Week 10 – didn’t have a who’s who of offensive firepower.

Tampa Bay did in Week 14, and 12 and company rolled up close to 500 yards in the 33-27 Buccaneer win.

Indianapolis did – at least when Carson Wentz wasn’t awful – and Jonathan Taylor and the crew ran wild in a 41-15 win.

And then there’s Kansas City.

It seems like a million years ago – Week 5 – but that was right in the midst of all the Chief problems, and it still managed to roll up almost 400 yards in a 38-20 loss. Turnovers were the issue – more on that later.

Buffalo’s defense was totally dominant against the mediocre. It got hit hard by the balanced teams with offensive talent.

Kansas City has stopped being all flamboyant and crazy, and it’s working. The running game is fine, Patrick Mahomes is spreading the ball around and not taking any big chances – the two turnovers in the 42-21 win over Pittsburgh were an aberration – and the defense went from non-existent to not-that-bad over the second half of the year.

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What’s Going To Happen, Who’s Going To Win the AFC Divisional Round

Again, Buffalo feasted off teams that couldn’t get anything moving and didn’t have the offensive talent to figure out any Plan B when the momentum wasn’t going the right away.

The Bills are No. 1 in the NFL at third down defense, but Kansas City is No. 1 in third downs.

The first meeting was too long to matter that much, but the Chiefs got beaten up because their offense kept screwing up. That was right in the midst of all the turnovers and problems, and the Bills feasted.

Buffalo won’t get those big plays this time around.

This might be a confident, talented but of players coming to Arrowhead, but Kansas City showed against Pittsburgh just how locked in it is.

The crazy part about this is that Buffalo is the flashy team, and the Chiefs are more rock-steady.

Kansas City isn’t going to make the big mistakes it did in the first meeting. It won’t be a smooth ride, but in the fourth quarter, the home field advantage side of things will start to kick in. Patrick Mahomes will get popped, but his supporting cast will do more than Allen’s.

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Buffalo at Kansas City Divisional Round Prediction, Line

Kansas City 30, Buffalo 27
Line: Kansas City -1.5, o/u: 54.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2

Must See Rating: 5

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