Bob Stefanowski pledges to spend $10 million in second attempt at CT governor. But a primary is ‘a possibility,’ pundit says

As a first-time candidate, Republican Bob Stefanowski came out of nowhere in 2018 and almost defeated a heavily funded Democrat for governor.

Stefanowski came within three percentage points of beating Ned Lamont, who had spent more than $40 million of his own money in three statewide races before finally winning the governorship.

Now, with far more name recognition and a pledge to spend $10 million of his own money, Stefanowski is running again this year in a rematch against Lamont. He likely would first need to defeat former House Republican leader Themis Klarides, who has already spent nearly $400,000 of her own money in exploring the race for governor.

Stefanowski, 59, is a fiscally conservative Republican whose main pledge during the 2018 campaign was vowing to eliminate the state income tax. Democrats dismissed the idea as impossible, noting that Gov. John G. Rowland made the same pledge in 1994 and was unable to accomplish it — even with a Republican-controlled Senate in his first two years.

Today, the income tax generates $10.6 billion in the current fiscal year, and lawmakers say that the Democratic-controlled legislature would never make $10 billion in cuts that would represent about half of the state’s general fund budget.

Some Republicans and Democrats viewed Stefanowski as a single-issue candidate, but he is now talking about a wide range of issues from high gasoline prices to an increase in juvenile crime to spending federal money with more transparency.

“I was really glad to see Mr. Stefanowski came out with a broader platform this time,’' said deputy Senate Republican leader Paul Formica of East Lyme. “The people in the state of Connecticut need and deserve to have a discussion on a whole breadth of issues that they’re going to be dealing with as the new administration gets put in, hopefully, next year. ... In my race, we talked a lot about how do you replace the dollars on the income tax if you’re going to eliminate it. There was really no answer coming from that. You have to have an opportunity to replace that unless you want to eliminate $10 billion worth of line items, which is not realistic.”

Formica says Republicans have a solid chance at beating Lamont because Stefanowski now has more experience and more name recognition than in 2018.

“This time, he’s had an opportunity to become a little more familiar with what’s happening in state government and how things work in a campaign‚” Formica said. “I think you’re going to see a much better candidate emerge, talking about all of these issues.”

Looking ahead to November, he added, “The overriding thought right now is the Republicans have a little wind at our backs, but that changes in a heartbeat.”

Democrats say that Stefanowski already had his chance and that Stefanowski is already distorting Lamont’s record. Democratic Party spokeswoman Patty McQueen said that Stefanowski’s opening salvos were a “series of fundamentally misleading or altogether false statements, platitudes and talking points.”

In his announcement, Stefanowski blasted Lamont on a range of issues, including taxes.

“Over the past three years, our state has become less affordable and more dangerous for the good people who live, work and go to school here,” Stefanowski said. “We already have some of the highest taxes, utilities, and child care costs in the country, and runaway inflation is making it even worse. Nearly everything is more expensive in Connecticut than in the rest of the country.

“Crime is rising across our state, residents feel less safe, and law enforcement is demoralized because of policies coming out of our state government.”

Recalling the famous line that Republican Ronald Reagan used against Democratic President Jimmy Carter in 1980, Stefanowski is asking whether Connecticut residents are better off than they were three years ago.

But Democrats countered that the state actually is better off — due in part to projected state budget surpluses of $1.2 billion in the current fiscal year and $1.1 billion next year. The once-troubled Special Transportation Fund is projecting surpluses of $275 million this year and $310 million next year. In addition, the state’s rainy day fund could reach as high as $5.5 billion by June 30 if current budget trends continue.

“Our revenue stream is pretty volatile, and right now, we’re strong,” Lamont told business leaders Friday. “It’s really important that we are able to save and invest during the good times and make sure that we don’t have to slash services or raise taxes in the tough times, and right now, Connecticut is in a better position to do that than in many, many years.”

Democrats say that many workers are also better off due to several increases in the minimum wage that will eventually reach $15 per hour, along with a new paid family and medical leave program that has already accepted more than 9,000 applications in less than two months in operation.

Like others, longtime Republican Sen. John Kissel of Enfield, who has served in the legislature for nearly 30 years, said it is hard to predict the landscape in November.

“Politics can change on a dime,” Kissel said in an interview. “Things can happen with a couple of weeks right before the election that can change the whole environment. But certainly the governor is going to be on the hook for everything that he’s done by executive order. People were pretty upbeat when this all started [with the pandemic] as far as the decisions he made, but I think their patience is dramatically wearing thin.”

But longtime political science professor Gary Rose of Sacred Heart University in Fairfield said that Stefanowski should not yet be looking ahead to a rematch with Lamont. He says Stefanowski could face a formidable challenge at the state Republican convention in May because Klarides developed deep political relationships during 22 years in the state legislature among party faithful who often become delegates.

“She is an insider, and insiders are the ones who normally prevail at these nominating conventions,” Rose said in an interview. “I know that Stefanowski, with his announcement of $10 million, is probably trying to scare her out of running. It might work, but I don’t think it’s necessarily going to work. She’s already been laying the groundwork for a campaign. I don’t foresee her backing out. I think there is a possibility to have a primary.

“Her connections are pretty vast here in Connecticut on the ground floor.”

Klarides declined to comment for this story, saying she did not have anything to add about the race at the moment and would speak when she makes a final decision about running for governor.

In the general election in the fall, Rose said that Republicans will have a solid shot at defeating Lamont.

“I know Lamont has gotten high marks with the pandemic, but he’s not as popular as he once was at the height of the pandemic,” Rose said.

Lamont downplayed Stefanowski’s entrance into the race as part of an election-year strategy to say that he’s focused on his job of running the state. He was asked how he would juggle the multiple tasks of overseeing the state, handling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and running a political campaign.

“I’m not going to juggle anything,” Lamont said. “I’m going to focus like a laser beam on the pandemic, focus on keeping our kids in school, focus on keeping our economy open. Look, it is a political season. People are going to get into the race. I think Bob has been running for the last five years, so nothing is going to change all that much. I’m going to focus on governing.”

Christopher Keating can be reached at ckeating@courant.com.