How the Bills can transcend Von Miller’s season-ending injury
When the Buffalo Bills signed veteran edge-rusher Von Miller to a six-year, $120 million contract with $45 million contract this offseason, it was seen by the organization as perhaps the final piece of the puzzle to get the Bills to their first Super Bowl since the 1993 season — and perhaps their first league title since 1965, when their league was the American Football League. Miller had already helped the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 50 with an MVP performance, and he helped the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LVI with a game that was MVP-worthy.
But if the Bills are to win their first Super Bowl, they’ll have to do it with Miller on the bench. On Wednesday, the team announced that Miller will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL — discovered during exploratory surgery to try and clean up issues the team hoped wouldn’t lead to this result.
“Very unfortunate situation for Von, obviously, and our team,” head coach Sean McDermott said. “We care for him obviously, like we would any player. We know how much this means to him in terms of playing and being with the team. So we look forward to getting him back, obviously off the field for the rest of the season and his leadership. And we’re certainly thinking about him as he recovers here.”
In his inaugural season with the Bills, Miller was on the field for 390 snaps, and off for 292. On passing downs, he was on the field for 278 snaps, and off for 184. Miller’s snaps came about equally on first to third down, so it wasn’t as if his new team was saving him for what are generally seen as obvious passing situations — although, when the Bills’ offense is humming, every down might be an obvious passing down for an opponent.
In any event, the on-off splits don’t indicate that this defense will fall apart without Miller. There’s always more to these splits than the presence or absence of the player in question, but with Miller on the field, the Bills have allowed an overall Offensive EPA of 0.02. Without him? -0.22. Their passing EPA allowed with Miller is 0.06, and -0.19 without him. Their rushing EPA allowed is -0.06 with him, and -0.26 without him. And they’re still the fourth-best defense overall by DVOA, with or without him.
The pass-rush splits are also interesting. The Bills have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 33.6% of their dropbacks with Miller on the field, and 33.7% without him. Their sack rate is 7.3% with him, and 6.0% without, and their total opponent blown block rate was 15.6% with him, and 15.4% without.
This is not to say that Miller wasn’t a great addition to this defense when healthy. He finishes his season leading the team in sacks (eight) and total pressures (45). But this isn’t the kind of thing that should take the Bills out of the Super Bowl equation.
As McDermott also said, “We care for Von in this case and we’ll miss him. But as I said last week when he was out, it’s a time and an opportunity for other guys to step up.”
Fortunately for the Bills, that stepping-up scenario looks far more feasible than one might imagine. When you look at this defense without Miller on the field, that becomes abundantly clear.
Stunting to the quarterback.
Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott, left, talks with defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier before an NFL football game against the Washington Football Team on Sept. 26, 2021, in Orchard Park, N.Y. Frazier is credited for providing the Bills a calm and reassuring voice even at the the most troubling times.(AP Photo/Adrian Kraus, File)
The Bills do not blitz heavily under McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier. That may surprise those who know McDermott’s history under legendary Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. McDermott went from quality control to linebackers coach under Johnson from 2002-2008, and replaced Johnson as the DC in 2009 following Johnson’s death due to melanoma. Johnson was one of the more creative blitz designers in NFL history, but the Bills as constructed lean more to Frazier’s history with the Colts, Vikings, and Buccaneers — you rely on your base four, get your linebackers involved, and dial up a few DB blitzes.
Through Week 13, the Bills have blitzed on 19.4% of their snaps, 10th-lowest in the league, and they have pressured opposing quarterbacks on 23.% of their snaps, 10th-best in the league. Where the Bills have succeeded without Miller this season, and they might want to ramp it up now, is with the use of line stunts. The Bills have used stunts to create pressure on 19 defensive snaps without Miller on the field this season, and seven of those stunts came against the Patriots in Week 13, when the Bills knew they wouldn’t have Miller at all.
None of those pressure stunts ended in sacks, but when Frazier called stunts against Mac Jones, Jones completed two of six passes for 13 yards, and a five-yard quarterback scramble.
One reason this works is that Frazier’s defense is so fundamentally sound from front to back. On this Jones incompletion to tight end Hunter Henry with 4:22 left in the first half, watch how linebacker Matt Milano came up to the front to give a blitz look. Milano was actually covering running back Rhamondre Stevenson in Buffalo’s Cover-6 match, and the stunt saw edge-rusher Greg Rousseau loop around defensive tackle Ed Oliver. Both center David Andrews and right guard Michael Onwenu had an eye on Milano, who broke late to the coverage, and that allowed Rousseau to crash in unobstructed. Henry was in the backfield and ran a late route after chipping, but slot cornerback Dane Jackson handed receiver Jakobi Meyers off to safety Jordan Poyer, and took Henry to the boundary.
The blitz as a side, not as a staple.
(Syndication: Detroit Free Press)
When we say that the Bills have not blitzed a lot this season, we are not kidding. And it’s not as if Miller’s absence affects this at all. With Miller off the field in 2022, Buffalo’s defense had blitzed… a total of 10 times. Two of those blitzes did come against the Patriots last week, and Jones completed both of his attempts against the blitz for 19 yards.
Aaron Rodgers also zinged the Bills for a 26-yard completion to receiver Romeo Doubs in Week 8. On this play, Edmunds blitzed from linebacker depth, and didn’t get home quickly enough to affect Rodgers’ throw. That left Johnson singled on Doubs in Cover-1, and while Johnson is a very good player, this was a less than optimal result.
This is a general statement, but the tape tells the story: The Bills have players who are better at spacing than they are at creating pressure from multiple levels. So, blitzing more without Miller isn’t a strategy they should — or will — employ.
Winning the one-on-ones.
(Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports)
Rousseau and fellow edge-rusher A.J. Epenesa have been the team’s most impactful pass disruptors with Miller off the field this season. Lawson has 13 total pressures to Epenesa’s 12, but Epenesa is one to watch with his four sacks with Miller on the sideline. Carlos “Boogie” Basham has also been an impact guy with 11 total pressures and two sacks.
So, there’s depth and production at the edge to mitigate the loss of Miller. Oliver, who has six total pressures and two sacks with Miller off the field, showed his power on this safety of Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff in Week 12. This was a straight four-man rush with no games — just Oliver trucking left guard Dan Skipper right into his own quarterback.
So, the Bills do have the depth and breadth along the line to hold things up without their most famous quarterback antagonist. Losing a player of Miller’s excellence and experience is far from ideal, but McDermott and Frazier — along with general manager Brandon Beane — have built this defensive line to transcend the loss of one player, no matter who that might be.
