An update on the biggest negotiation facing Marlins ownership. And outfield dilemma

A six-pack of Miami Marlins notes on a Monday:

▪ The most important negotiation for the Marlins this year — heck, for any year — remains unresolved, just as it has been for the past seven years.

Less than a month from the start of spring training, the Marlins still do not have a new television deal to replace the one that expired at the end of last season.

A source said negotiations between the Marlins and Sinclair (which owns Fox Sports Florida and Fox Sports Sun) are ongoing, with the sides in contact over the past week. I will be surprised if they do not eventually come to an agreement, but it’s not certain.

It reached the point in recent months that the Marlins began to explore other options simply to protect themselves, though the Marlins declined to discuss what any of those options might be.

But this is most important: The Marlins do not plan to keep their games off television. There will be a solution found to air the games, whether it’s with Fox or some other provider.

Two factors are working against the Marlins in their negotiations with Sinclair/Fox:

1) The pandemic has impacted everything, including budgets for television networks. One example of how that manifests itself in rights fees: According to The Athletic, ESPN will go from paying $700 million annually to $550 million annually in its new deal with MLB, which calls for fewer telecasts.

2) Sinclair is in the catbird’s seat in negotiations because it has no real competition in Florida. The shuttering of Comcast Sports Southeast in 2014 ostensibly removed any legitimate, widely-distributed competition for the Fox regionals in this region of the country.

The sides realistically need to reach a deal by mid-February for spring training games to be televised or by mid-March for the first week of regular season games to be carried.

As perspective, the Royals and Fox Sports Kansas City reached a new TV deal in mid-February last year, just in time to plan spring training broadcasts.

Ultimately, the Marlins likely will need to either accept whatever Sinclair offers (likely) or try some outside-the-box idea such as placing games on Youtube TV or Amazon or selling games to a local affiliate, which isn’t especially realistic.

The Marlins’ $20 million annual rights fee in their previous deal was the lowest in baseball. Whether the Marlins can snag triple that — or close to it — is questionable in this economy.

The Tampa Bay Rays had been receiving $30 million annually from Fox before striking a new deal in 2019. Rays owner Stuart Sternberg, in February 2019, said the deal actually was “well, well, well under” the $82 million annual average over 15 years that was reported by Sports Business Daily. But two sources with direct knowledge said the Rays’ deal actually is close to that $82 million when factoring in an equity component, despite Sternberg’s denials.

The Royals’ new TV deal — the most recent one struck by Sinclair — reportedly pays the team $50 million annually.

Market size is a significant factor for Sinclair in determining rights fees for teams, but far from the only one.

The Miami-Fort Lauderdale market is the 18th biggest, as far as number of TV households, per Nielsen’s 2021 market report. Tampa-St. Petersburg is 13th. Kansas City is 34th.

So the Marlins, in theory, should be getting far more than the Royals’ $50 million annual rights fee. But that Royals deal was struck before the pandemic, a factor that cannot be overlooked because COVID-19 is impacting baseball and television economics.

Both the Marlins previous ownership group and the current one had hoped a significant boost in TV revenue would allow the team to increase player payroll. Several years ago, previous ownership rejected a contract extension that a source said is higher than the current offer on the table from Fox/Sinclair.

Marlins ratings increased in several demographic groups last season. Among viewers 18-to-34, the Marlins topped all Sinclair RSN teams in year-over-year viewership growth at plus 1197 percent, from 2019 to 2020. Among viewers 65 or older, Marlins ratings jumped 32 percent in 2020, the biggest increase in the majors. But a source said the ratings will have little or no impact on negotiations.

Besides the economic issues caused by the pandemic, Sinclair is dealing with other problems, including a few carriage disagreements with satellite and streaming services. Fox Sports Florida and Fox Sports Sun do not have carriage deals with Dish Network or streaming services YouTube TV, Hulu and Sling; there are no ongoing negotiations with any of those four.

On the radio side, the Marlins have a deal for WINZ-940 to remain the team’s flagship station.

▪ The Marlins have had trade discussions with the Orioles about outfielder Anthony Santander, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Santader hit .261 with 11 homers and 32 RBI in 37 games and 165 plate appearances in 2020.

The switch-hitting Santader, 26, hit .261, with 20 homers and 59 RBI in 93 games for Baltimore in 2019. He’s under team control through 2024; he’s arbitration-eligible for the first time and likely will go a hearing. He’s looking for $2.475 million; Baltimore is offering $2.1 million.

The Marlins also have been linked to other outfielders, including free agent Yasiel Puig (former National GM and current Sirius XM/CBS HQ analyst Jim Bowden said Marlins, Yankees, Royals in the mix) and Boston’s Andrew Benintendi (as MLB Network’s Craig Mish originally reported).

▪ From a (non-pitching) player position standpoint, there’s a real conundrum for the Marlins about whether to give playing time to prospects to see if they can hit or acquire established veterans to increase their chances of winning in 2021.

If the Marlins acquire another quality veteran outfielder, their starting outfield likely would be three veterans: Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson and that acquired player. And that wouldn’t even include Garrett Cooper, who would warrant some at bats in right field on days Jesus Aguilar starts at first.

If the Marlins go in that direction, it would be admirable in the sense they’re trying to win.

But it also would delay determining something they must get a handle on in the next year: Can Monte Harrison or Jesus Sanchez hit well enough to be big-league starters, as everyone hopes?

If another starting outfielder is acquired, one option would be this: If Harrison and/or Sanchez hit well in the spring and early in the season, Dickerson — earning $9.5 million in the second year of a two-deal deal — could then be flipped for a pitcher or catcher or a pretty good prospect.

If there’s a designated hitter in the National League, that would help, because it would create more at-bats for Harrison and Sanchez, if they’re on the team, as well as for Cooper, of course. But MLB reporters Jon Heyman and Buster Olney reported Monday that the union has rejected MLB’s offer for a universal DH in exchange for the union agreeing to expanded playoffs. There could be further negotiations on those issues.

Outfielder Harold Ramirez and Magneuris Sierra also would warrant some playing time if they’re on the team and if Sierra continues the improvements made in 2020.

The Marlins have a bunch of young outfielders in their system who might have the capability to eventually to be big-league starters with Harrison, Sanchez, J.J. Bleday, Kameron Misner, Peyton Burdick and perhaps Connor Scott, Jerar Encarnacion and the Mesa brothers. (Lewis Brinson and Sierra look more like fourth or fifth outfielders if they stick.)

The challenge is deciding how many big-league at-bats to allocate to any of them — compared with veteran outfielders — at the point when the Marlins believe the prospects have done all they can at the minor league level. (And we’re not at that point, or close to that point, with any of those players except Harrison and - at some point in 2021 - Sanchez.)

The view here is that either position can be justified: A) Adding another veteran bat to try to be more competitive in the most difficult division in baseball or B) Going into 2021 saying “we need to see if Harrison and/or Sanchez can hit and they warrant an extended look in April and May,” with Cooper, Sierra, Ramirez and Brinson in reserve if Harrison and/or Sanchez don’t capitalize on the opportunity.

▪ A National League scout told me “Bleday is going to hit, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sooner than later. You watch the way the ball comes of the bat and it’s impressive.”

Some inside the Marlins believe he’s going to progress rapidly through the system.

▪ I continue to hear lots of positive feedback about new Marlins general manager Kim Ng. An official with another team who worked with her previously said “she’s brilliant, absorbs information quickly. Deals with people well. Very impressive person.”

▪ The signing of Anthony Bass gives the Marlins three relievers who held opponents to batting averages below .200 last season: Bass (.189), Yimi Garcia (.164) and James Hoyt (.173).

Batting average allowed in 2020 by the other veterans very likely to be a part of the Marlins bullpen: Adam Cimber (.289), Ross Detwiler (.253) and Richard Bleier (.250).