What Biden said — and what he meant

President Joe Biden’s State of the Union speech Tuesday night came on the cusp of his expected reelection launch — and months removed from a better-than-expected midterm election for Democrats.

Yet Biden’s address featured little gloating or political chest thumping. The contrasts he drew with Republicans were mild compared to the things he said on the stump last fall. Bipartisanship and unity were the overt themes of the night.

But listen closely to Biden’s 73-minute speech, and there were hints that he’s gearing up for a year of difficult investigations and the rough and tumble politics of the coming campaign.

Here’s a guide to what Biden said — and what he actually meant:

The McCarthy Greeting

What he said: I start tonight by congratulating the members of the 118th Congress and the new Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy. Mr. Speaker, I look forward to working together.

What he meant: This is going to be a long two years.

Decoding: Biden genuinely believes in compromising with Republicans to get things done. But he knows that the new House GOP majority will be focused, perhaps above all else, on inflicting political pain on him and weakening his case for reelection with myriad investigations. An irascible conservative wing with immense power over the new speaker makes the chances for serious legislating slim to none.

Me vs. Trump

What he said: Two years ago our economy was reeling. As I stand here tonight, we have created a record 12 million new jobs — more jobs created in two years than any president has ever created in four years. Two years ago, Covid had shut down our businesses, closed our schools, and robbed us of so much. Today, Covid no longer controls our lives. And two years ago, our democracy faced its greatest threat since the Civil War. Today, though bruised, our democracy remains unbowed and unbroken.

What he meant: You all remember 2020? Does anyone seriously want to go back to Trump?

Decoding: Biden offered a self-progress report on the big crises he vowed to address. But at the outset of a potential rematch with Trump, he’s also reminding the country of the chaos and, ultimately, violence of his predecessor’s tenure.

With polls this week showing Biden’s post-midterm bump fading, and one even showing Trump leading a hypothetical rematch, you can understand why the president would want the country to evaluate his presidency in terms of the situation he inherited and the progress that’s been made on the pandemic, unemployment and election integrity.

Blame for inflation

What he said: Inflation has been a global problem because the pandemic disrupted our supply chains and Putin’s unfair and brutal war that disrupted energy as well as food supplies, blocking all that grain in Ukraine. But we’re better positioned than any country on Earth. We have more to do, but here at home, inflation is coming down.

What he meant: Why can’t more of you appreciate the strength of this economy?! Don’t you see all this job growth? Can’t you see that higher prices aren’t my fault?

Decoding: This isn’t the first time Biden has argued that the main causes of inflation are largely beyond his control. But he has little choice but to use this once-a-year platform to hammer it again — given the disconnect between strong economic metrics and the public’s frustration that everything costs more now than it did a couple years ago.

Abortion politics

What he said: The vice president and I are doing everything we can to protect access to reproductive health care and safeguard patient privacy. But already, more than a dozen states are enforcing extreme abortion bans. Make no mistake; if Congress passes a national abortion ban, I will veto it.

What he meant: I know Congress isn’t going to send this bill to my desk. But please, Republicans, go ahead and take a shot.

Decoding: Enough Republicans have expressed their support for a federal abortion ban that Biden can reasonably set this up as a hypothetical. If only for the purposes of clarifying again which party is united in its support of reproductive freedom and which is responsible for the Supreme Court majority that struck down Roe v. Wade last summer and talking about going further.

After Democrats avoided the sweeping midterm defeat most presidents’ parties have historically suffered, in large part thanks to the backlash from women incensed by the Court’s reversal on abortion, Biden wanting to beat this drum loudly should come as no surprise.

The debt ceiling staring contest

What he said: In the last two years, my administration cut the deficit by more than $1.7 trillion — the largest deficit reduction in American history. Under the previous administration, America’s deficit went up four years in a row. Because of those record deficits, no president added more to the national debt in any four years than my predecessor. Nearly 25% of the entire national debt, a debt that took 200 years to accumulate, was added by that administration alone. How did Congress respond to all that debt? They lifted the debt ceiling three times without preconditions or crisis. They paid America’s bills to prevent economic disaster for our country. Tonight, I’m asking this Congress to follow suit.

What he meant: Y'all want to talk about spending? Let’s talk about spending.

Decoding: Okay, this doesn’t need much translation. Biden’s decision to question Republicans’ return to conditioning any increase of the nation’s debt ceiling on spending cuts, something it never did when Trump was in the White House, makes clear that he feels good about the cards he holds at the moment. And that he’s happy to remind the country what’s at stake and to up the pressure on the GOP.

But as Biden challenged the GOP, shouts arose in the chamber. The television cutaways showed GOP lawmakers shaking their heads. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), draped in a white fur-collared coat, stood up and shouted something back at the president.

Prior to the speech, Biden aides hinted they wouldn’t be upset if some far-right Republicans made a scene during the speech. It’s quite likely, given the response Biden drew, that this part of the speech was written to bait someone like Greene into providing the contrast the White House wanted between the president and the MAGA Republicans he didn’t explicitly call out.

Infrastructure hypocrisy

What he said: I sincerely thank my Republican friends who voted for the [bipartisan infrastructure] law. And to my Republican friends who voted against it but still ask to fund projects in their districts, don’t worry. I promised to be the president for all Americans. We’ll fund your projects. And I’ll see you at the ground-breaking.

What he meant: No way I was going to let you all get away with voting against this bill and then taking credit for the projects and new jobs in your districts.

Decoding: Biden and top aides plan to focus a lot of attention this year on the real world effects of laws they’ve passed, including the $1.2 trillion infrastructure overhaul that’s now taking the shape of bridge repairs, lead pipe removals and the construction of new charging stations for electric vehicles.

And while Biden will always note that the law passed with bipartisan support, he’s intent on calling out Republicans who voted against it but are now benefiting. In a speech where he largely laid off attacking “MAGA Republicans,” something McCarthy specifically requested, this gentle ribbing served as a friendly reminder that Biden will continue to draw sharp contrasts with the Republicans who aren’t interested in bipartisan cooperation.

A recalibration on policing

What he said: I know most cops are good. decent people. They risk their lives every time they put on that shield. But what happened to Tyre in Memphis happens too often. We have to do better.

What he meant: I’m taking the “tough on crime” thing down a notch.

Decoding: A year ago with the midterms looming in the distance, Biden was emphatic in trying to make clear that he and Democrats weren’t looking to weaken law enforcement, bellowing his vow to “FUND THE POLICE.” There was no such call this year. And Biden’s remarks here reflect a recalibration on this subject.

With the the parents of Tyre Nichols in the balcony, Biden called on Congress to act on a police reform plan to better train officers and hold them to higher standards. There was still a line about providing “more resources” for law enforcement but it was delivered quickly and without the same rhetorical emphasis that characterized last year’s address.