‘The Batman’ Is Set to Ignite the Box Office – Even Without Russia

Though Warner Bros.’ “The Batman” made Hollywood headlines as one of the films pulled from Russia in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine, that withdrawal isn’t expected to stop the DC blockbuster from becoming the biggest box office hit since “Spider-Man: No Way Home” nearly three months ago.

Robert Pattinson’s debut as Gotham City’s avenging crusader is an important film for Warner Bros., marking its return to releasing theatrically exclusive movies after all of the studio’s 2021 films were released simultaneously on HBO Max. It’s also the beginning of a much more blockbuster-intensive theatrical strategy for Warner as the studio will release just nine films this year, five of which are based on DC Comics.

And all tracking points to that slate getting off to a strong start, with opening weekend projections for “The Batman” starting at $115 million. That would put it alongside “No Way Home” as only the second film since the pandemic began to earn a domestic opening of over $100 million. Warner Bros. remains conservative with a $90 million studio projection.

While nobody is expecting “No Way Home”-level numbers from “The Batman,” comic book movies have consistently beaten pre-release numbers over the past year. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see “The Batman” similarly overperform and get closer to the $160 million range, which is where the last two “Batman” films — “The Dark Knight Rises” ($160 million in 2012) and “Batman v Superman — Dawn of Justice” ($166 million in 2016) — landed in their opening weekends.

Globally, “The Batman” is projected for a global launch of $225 million-plus, having already earned $1.7 million on opening day Tuesday in Korea to set a new post-shutdown record for Warner Bros. Special preview screenings on Imax were also held on Tuesday in the U.S. with $2 million grossed.

Even though Warner’s decision to pull out of Russia will put a small dent in overseas grosses and force the studio to eat some sunk costs in marketing in that country, the simultaneous launch of the film in almost all other markets should be enough to allow this $200 million tentpole to shrug it off. The only countries that won’t receive “The Batman” this weekend are Japan and China, which are set for release on March 11 and 18, respectively.

There are several other factors helping out “The Batman” this weekend, including rapidly declining COVID-19 infection rates worldwide and an increasing confidence in moviegoing that should allow the film to get support from moviegoers outside of the core demographic of 18-35 males. Critics’ reviews are also strong with an 85% Rotten Tomatoes score and rabid social media praise from early fan preview screenings, which should secure strong word of mouth even with the film’s nearly three-hour runtime.

And looking ahead, “The Batman” will be the only big game in town as no other major blockbusters are set for release in March, giving the film four weekends to dominate theaters before Sony’s “Morbius” is released on April 1. While that should give Warner Bros. plenty of time to leg out at the box office, the lack of additional support from studios is likely a reason why AMC Theaters announced that it would roll out dynamic pricing for blockbusters, with opening weekend tickets for “The Batman” being sold at a higher price as the chain tries to maximize revenue from the year’s biggest tentpoles.