August Case-Shiller Results and September Forecast: No Signs of Cooling
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 5.7% year-over-year in August (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 4.8% in July.
Annual growth was up from July in the smaller 20-city index (to 5.2%, from 4.1%) and 10-city index (to 4.7% from 3.5%).
Phoenix (+9.9%), Seattle (+8.5%), and San Diego (+7.6%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.
The remarkable surge in home prices continued into August as prices showed no signs of cooling down heading into the fall.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 5.7% year-over-year in August. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 4.7% and 5.2% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was faster in August than in July in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10- and 20-city indices were each up 0.5%, and the national index was up 1% from June.
Zillow Forecast, Released 9/30/20 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, | Historical Median Absolute Error* | |
|---|---|---|---|
10-City Composite, | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
10-City Composite, | 3.9% | 4.7% | 0.2% |
20-City Composite, | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
20-City Composite, | 4.5% | 5.2% | 0.1% |
U.S. National | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
U.S. National | 5.3% | 5.7% | 0.1% |
*Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
By some measures, home prices are rising at a faster pace than they ever have – an incredible feat considering the market is rising from an already elevated level. The supply of for-sale homes, already extremely tight, has only become more constrained in recent months, and historically low mortgage rates continue to encourage many buyers to enter the market. This heightened competition for the few homes on the market has placed consistent, firm pressure on home prices for months now, and there are few signs that this will relent any time soon. While the path of the overall economy is likely to be most directly dictated by coronavirus-related and political developments in the coming months, recent trends suggest that the housing market – which has basically withstood every pandemic-related challenge to this point – will continue its strong momentum in the months to come.
Annual growth in September as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, November 24.
Index | Actual August | Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller Sept. Indices |
|---|---|---|
10-City Composite, | 1.1% | 0.7% |
10-City Composite, | 4.7% | 5.7% |
20-City Composite, | 1.1% | 0.7% |
20-City Composite, | 5.2% | 6.2% |
U.S. National | 1.1% | 0.8% |
U.S. National | 5.7% | 6.6% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
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