Alex Grinch retained by Lincoln Riley: a reasonable, fair move which could become a total disaster
A lot of USC fans wished, in their hearts, that Lincoln Riley — maybe with some prodding from Mike Bohn — would have fired Alex Grinch, and that the Trojans would have made a run at Jim Leonhard. We certainly wrote about it and encouraged that line of thought, but it didn’t happen.
Grinch was officially retained as USC’s defensive coordinator on Tuesday, a very unpopular move which will increase anxiety among the fan base and drive national conversation throughout the next eight months, heading into the 2023 season.
There’s a lot to unpack about this move. It’s understandable why Lincoln Riley would do this, and it’s understandable why both fans and critics think Riley is nuts for doing this. Let’s look at the various dimensions of this significant story:
FIRST POINT
Southern California head coach Lincoln Riley, left, talks with defensive coordinator Alex Grinch during an NCAA college football practice Thursday, March 24, 2022, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
No one should be surprised by this. You can be angry. You can disapprove. You never should have thought this was an unlikely scenario. It was always the probable outcome, though the Cotton Bowl did introduce genuine uncertainty into the equation, if only for a little while.
WHY THIS WAS EXPECTED
NORMAN, OK – APRIL 24: Head coach Lincoln Riley of the Oklahoma Sooners talks with defensive coordinator Alex Grinch before their spring game at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on April 24, 2021 in Norman, Oklahoma. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
Lincoln Riley knew he put Alex Grinch on the spot when he made the abrupt move to go to USC in November of 2021. Grinch could have chosen to go elsewhere, but he didn’t have a lot of time to think about his move. USC could be viewed as an opportunity — Riley certainly thought of it that way — but Grinch still had to make an abrupt move he wasn’t planning on. Riley was the prime mover, Grinch the follower.
Riley would not have inconvenienced Grinch if he wasn’t willing to give him a second season no matter what. That reality always worked against the idea that Riley would fire Grinch following Year 1 at USC.
BIG TEN FACTOR
B1G letters sit on Monument Circle before the NCAA Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis, Tuesday, March 10, 2020.
The fact that USC changes conferences in 2024, moving to the Big Ten, probably worked in favor of retaining Grinch. USC gets one more year in which to fully evaluate Grinch before playing in the Big Ten. If Grinch improves, he establishes himself as a guy who is ready to compete in USC’s new conference. If not, someone with Big Ten expertise can be hired as the Trojans’ 2024 defensive coordinator.
EVERYONE AGREES ON THIS
Jan 2, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Tulane Green Wave tight end Alex Bauman (87) catches the game winning touchdown while defended by USC Trojans defensive back Jaylin Smith (19) in the fourth quarter in the 2023 Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Even if you can’t stand Alex Grinch, you can admit that USC didn’t have enough defensive talent or depth. Adding talent and depth in the portal and on the recruiting trail matters most. If USC doesn’t do that, the coach or coordinator doesn’t matter.
THE KEY QUESTION
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 03: Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch on the sidelines during a 66-14 Trojans win over the Rice Owls at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on September 03, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
Is Alex Grinch keeping top defensive recruits and portal prospects away from USC? Surely Riley and Mike Bohn would have had a serious conversation about that point if they felt there was something to it. If Grinch was deterring prospects from coming to USC, that would have been the end of the line for him. Clearly, Riley and Bohn think that’s not happening … but that means they need to grab several more high-end defensive players, particularly on the D-line and in the secondary.
THE LOGIC BEHIND KEEPING GRINCH
Sep 11, 2021; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Clay Helton and Stanford Cardinal head coach David Shaw shake hands after a game at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
One year ago, USC coaches had to evaluate players based on Clay Helton’s final (2021) season. This year, they’re evaluating players based on Alex Grinch’s first USC season. This conceptually makes various evaluation and teaching processes simpler, quicker, and more conducive to improvement. Continuity and cohesion can lead to more rapid transformations on defense.
THE FLIP SIDE
Apr 12, 2019; Norman, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners cornerbacks coach Roy Manning (left) and defensive coordinator Alex Grinch (right) watch a play during the spring football game at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
If continuity in Year 2 is supposed to make everything flow better, that comes with an expectation: Develop players better. Player development did not occur for most of the defense in Year 1 under Alex Grinch. That piece of the puzzle has to be significantly better in 2023, if Grinch is going to save his job and mend his reputation.
GRINCH QUESTIONS
Oklahoma defensive coordinator Alex Grinch before a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Iowa State Cyclones at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 20, 2021.
USC got a lot of takeaways on defense this season, but it couldn’t tackle well. If the Trojans get 10 fewer takeaways in 2023 but miss 80 percent fewer tackles, that’s a trade worth making. Grinch needs to teach less for the takeaway and more for the sure tackle. He can’t evade the tough questions on defense.
KOREY FOREMAN'S IMPORTANCE, PART 1
USC Trojans defensive lineman Korey Foreman kneels in the end zone before playing the San Jose State Spartans during an NCAA football game on Saturday, Sept 4, 2021, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/John McCoy)
Korey Foreman is such an important player for the USC defense in 2023 for several reasons. The most obvious one is that he needs to become a productive player, not a bust.
FOREMAN, PART II
Sep 18, 2021; Pullman, Washington, USA; USC Trojans defensive lineman Korey Foreman (0) against the Washington State Cougars in the second half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. The Trojans won 45-14. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Foreman is also important because he was recruited by Donte Williams under Clay Helton. The new regime kept him. Foreman being a success would validate both Williams and Grinch. Williams’ value as a recruiter would be enhanced, and Grinch’s reputation as a player developer would improve.
FOREMAN, PART III
Nov 11, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans defensive end Korey Foreman (0) reacts after bringing down Colorado Buffaloes running back Alex Fontenot (8) during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Foreman was hurt for portions of the 2022 season. It’s not easy to know how much his lack of high-end production was due to health or deficient coaching or just not being as good as many expected. If it turns out that health is the only thing holding him back, a healthy Foreman should be able to make a big difference in 2023, which would immediately give Grinch a lot more margin for error.
IMPROVEMENT AND REGRESSION
Southern California head coach Lincoln Riley, left, talks with defensive coordinator Alex Grinch during an NCAA college football practice Thursday, March 24, 2022, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
USC played well on defense against Oregon State and Washington State, but then fell off a cliff against Utah, Arizona, and Cal. The regression in the second half of the season is in many ways the most concerning aspect of Grinch’s 2022 season. USC has to maintain a steady upward trajectory in 2023.
STRENGTH TRAINING
Apr 5, 2012; Los Angeles, CA, USA; General view of a Southern California Trojans logo at John McKay Center. The facility will house meeting rooms, coaches offices, an indoor football field and a locker room, along with an academic center, weight room, athletic training room and state-of-the-art digital media production facility for the 21 athletic teams. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports
Eric Gentry was overpowered against Utah in the Pac-12 Championship Game. USC was physically outworked by Tulane. Was strength training deficient in Year 1, or was it more a case of guys having to get used to a new system and needing a second offseason to round into form? Regardless of the answer, USC’s strength training program needs to produce stronger defensive players. That part of the operation can’t be ignored this year.
