Alex Grinch’s reputation as a defensive coordinator didn’t change in 2022, and that’s the problem
You are reading this story, which means you have just seen the title for the story: “Alex Grinch’s reputation as a defensive coordinator didn’t change in 2022.”
This leads us into an obvious, central question: Just what exactly was Alex Grinch’s reputation as a defensive coordinator?
Answering that question requires digging into his past, especially at Oklahoma, where he spent three full seasons alongside Lincoln Riley and produced seasons which were not that different from this one at USC.
You have to understand Alex Grinch’s history in order to understand his 2022 season. The real question is whether all of this means he deserves to coach this defense in 2023.
Let’s dive into this complicated conversation:
PARADOX
Grinch’s situation is complicated, but that complex situation exists against the backdrop of a very simple reality: His defenses generally aren’t particularly strong. This USC defense was weak, much as the 2019 and 2021 Oklahoma defenses were weak. In 2020, Oklahoma’s defense noticeably improved, but in three of the four Alex Grinch-Lincoln Riley seasons we have seen (2019-2022), the body of work looks very much the same.
You might reasonably ask: Why is this a complicated conversation when the results are so obvious with Alex Grinch?
CLEANING UP MESSES
Alex Grinch was hired to clean up the mess Mike Stoops left behind as Oklahoma’s defensive coordinator in 2018. Oklahoma’s defense was so atrocious that the Sooners — more than anything else — just needed damage control.
Alex Grinch provided that.
The nuance is that the bar was so low that even moderate improvement — while helping Oklahoma make the College Football Playoff in 2019 — didn’t make OU’s defense special. It merely made OU’s defense “good enough to get by” with the Sooner offense carrying most of the workload, much as Caleb Williams and the USC offense carried the load for most of the 2022 season.
Grinch cleaned up the mess left behind by Todd Orlando and Donte Williams last year — enough to win 11 games, but certainly not to the extent that the USC defense was legitimately good. (The Oregon State and Washington State games were the two times this year when the defense was legitimately good. Otherwise, it wasn’t.)
ONE CLEAR FAILURE
Though Alex Grinch and Lincoln Riley have worked together for the past four seasons, only one season has involved a true and complete failure on Grinch’s part: the 2021 Oklahoma season.
Get more on that 2021 season in our full Riley Files collection here at Trojans Wire.
Simply stated, 2021 was supposed to be a year when Alex Grinch had all the tools and resources at his disposal, all the ingredients needed to field an elite defense heading into the season … and he failed.
That’s only one season in which Alex Grinch was unambiguously bad at his job.
ALEX GRINCH WASN'T BAD THIS SEASON
But wait, USC’s defense was bad this year, right?
It was bad from October 15 — the first Utah game — through the Cal game on November 5. It was bad for large portions of the UCLA game and the second half of the Notre Dame game. It was bad in the final three quarters of this second Utah game.
In the first six games of the season, it was decent and — against Oregon State and Washington State — legitimately good.
Over 13 games, the 2022 USC defense was mediocre, which — compared to preseason expectations and fears — was better than Trojan fans and a lot of national analysts were predicting.
SIMPLE TRUTH
Let’s all remind ourselves that if USC’s defense doesn’t stand on its head in Corvallis, the Trojans don’t make the Pac-12 Championship Game.
SIMPLE TRUTH NO. 2
Let’s all remember that USC allowed just 14 points to Washington State in Week 6. The defense was as responsible as the offense was — maybe more — for winning that game.
If we accept that statement, USC’s defense won two games this year. That’s two more games than most people expected.
NUANCE
Yes, the defense was lousy for almost all of the second half of the season, but as a 13-game body of work, Alex Grinch did not underperform.
He underperformed in the final seven games of the 13 on this slate, but not all 13. He greatly overperformed in the first six games of the year.
CENTRAL REALITY
Alex Grinch is a decent, competent defensive coordinator: not great (and not even close to being great), but not terrible. Working under Lincoln Riley, he takes defenses which could be total dumpster fires and makes them semi-respectable. That’s not a dazzling verdict or a sparkling recommendation, but it does mean he improves bad situations to “not as bad.”
That’s what he does. He takes something bad and makes it slightly — not extremely — better.
YEAR 1 WAS NEVER GOING TO RESOLVE THE ALEX GRINCH QUESTION
This brings us to the heart of the conversation with Alex Grinch: He was never going to have the talent or depth to win big this year. USC needs to give him talent and depth for 2023.
If this same 2022 season plays out next year, Alex Grinch will need to be fired or encouraged to “seek new opportunities.” Right now, as things stand, 2023 is a referendum on Alex Grinch if he is allowed to coach the USC defense next season.
DOES ALEX GRINCH DESERVE TO COACH AT USC IN 2023?
In the sense that we need to see a coach work under a better set of circumstances — with more time to adjust and collect the resources he needs to succeed — yes, Grinch deserves this opportunity. He certainly hasn’t disqualified himself. If you’re looking at this situation through that lens, Grinch deserves a chance, so that we can see, once and for all, if he can make significant improvements to a Lincoln Riley defense.
COUNTERPOINT
If Riley or Mike Bohn can find an elite defensive coordinator on the market, such as Jim Leonhard — who is a free agent after being left at the altar by Wisconsin — the Trojans should take the opportunity.
FULL CIRCLE
Alex Grinch is not a bad coordinator, but he also isn’t elite. That is a simple conclusion to arrive at in the midst of a complicated conversation.
USC and Riley should not feel they “owe” Grinch another season if they can hire an elite defensive coordinator. It’s not a criticism of Grinch so much as it’s a reflection of simply hiring the best possible man for the job. Why wouldn’t any organization hire the best possible man for the job instead of settling for someone not as good?
It doesn’t mean Grinch is bad at his job; he isn’t. We have established that. It merely means other guys can do the job better.
THE TENSION POINT FOR 2023
Is USC content to give Alex Grinch one more chance, or will it seek a better defensive coordinator? That’s the open question. We’ll see what happens.
