5 things about Austin's weather worth worrying over in October

Roberto Villalpando, Austin American-Statesman
·5 min read

Austin's blistering summer finally ended in September, a month that saw an end to the triple-digit temperatures that have roasted the city since late May. Typically, we look forward to October bringing waves of storm-producing cold fronts that sometimes lead to flash flooding — yet also replenish critical water sources.

But the dryness that has baked backyards and fueled frequent wildfires across the state in the past several months is likely to continue through the fall, according to the latest seasonal outlook from the National Weather Service. Here are five things about Austin's weather that are worth worrying about in October:

1. It's nicer outside, but we really need rain.

September's rainfall was Austin's 11th-lowest total on record, according to National Weather Service climate data. The 0.47 of an inch recorded at Camp Mabry, site of the city's main weather station, fell far short of the 30-year normal monthly rainfall of 3.45 inches for September.

For the year, Austin has logged only 18.32 inches of rainfall, nearly 9 inches below normal at this point on the calendar.

October normally generates, based on a 30-year average, about 3.91 inches of rain for Austin, but the forecast won't include any moisture for at least the next seven days.

In its drought report issued Saturday, the National Weather Service declared that "drought remains entrenched across much of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains, and will expand this fall."

Among the weather service's key findings:

  • Reservoirs and aquifers "still have a lot of room for recovery."

  • Warmer than normal conditions remain likely, with La Niña expected to persist through winter.

  • Fire weather (dry air, high winds) is expected to become more common this fall.

  • Ranchers and farmers "should prepare for potential drought impacts through winter."

The drought report also documented shortfalls in well levels in the Edwards Aquifer, an underground layer of porous, water-bearing rock sitting beneath Central Texas.

The Bexar Index Well J-17, at the time of the report, had a 10-day average well level of 632 feet, about 31.5 feet lower than the historical average for October. On Monday, the J-17 well was at 631.6 feet, the Edwards Aquifer Authority reported.

More:Why a strong La Niña this fall could mean bad news for Austin and Texas drought

2. Drought is worsening again.

Data released Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor, a joint effort of the National Drought Mitigation Center, the U.S. Agriculture Department and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, show that about 85% of Texas is experiencing drought, an increase from 78.8% of the state last week.

Some of the most severe levels of drought remain centered in the Hill Country southwest of Austin and the San Antonio metro area. Drought monitor data indicate that at least 9.8 million Texans live in drought-stricken areas and that 2022 to date is the state's 11th-driest year in the past 128 years.

Exceptional drought — the worst level on the drought monitor's scale and typified by crop loss and extreme sensitivity to fire danger — rose from 0.6% of Texas last week to about 1.1%. Exceptional drought encompassed about 53.7% of Hays County and about 81.7% of Comal County.

According to the crop and weather report from Texas A&M AgriLife released Tuesday, crop producers in the agricultural district that includes the Austin metro area and the Hill Country "were busy preparing for winter wheat and oat planting where adequate subsoil was available."

"Pasture and rangeland conditions were still declining," the report warned. "Livestock and wildlife were in good condition, but supplemental feeding continued."

3. You don't need extreme heat for fire danger

With Austin's 68 days of triple-digit temperatures this year receding into the record books, October typically means the arrival of cooler weather. Forecasters warn that wildfires don't need heat as much as they rely on dry air and high winds — both of which remain potent this fall.

The Texas A&M Forest Service uses the Keetch-Byram Drought Index to gauge potential wildfire threats in Texas counties. The index ranges from zero, representing a soil saturated with moisture, to 800, which means completely dry soil. Much of the Austin metro area — including Travis, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties — is in the 601 to 700 range, while Williamson County is in the 501 to 600 range.

The most recent wildfire in Central Texas, the Mesquite Blossom fire in eastern Hays County, as of Monday was 95% contained after having burned 39.6 acres, according to the forest service.

Of Texas' 254 counties, 99 have an outdoor burn ban in place, including Travis, Hays and Caldwell counties.

4. La Niña is not going away.

Thanks to La Niña, the cooling of the tropical waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, chances are stronger that Central Texas will see drought expand this fall, weather experts say.

Last year's La Niña autumn was Austin's sixth-warmest fall season. This year, La Niña already has contributed to Austin's second-hottest spring on record and the city's second-hottest summer ever.

La Niña is expected to persist into winter, with a 91% chance of lasting to November before decreasing to a 54% chance from January to March, according to the latest forecast from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center,

5. October is off to a dry start.

The weather service's extended forecast for Austin calls for plenty of daytime sunshine with clear skies at night.

  • Tuesday: Mostly sunny with a high of 91. Mostly clear skies at night with a low around 61.

  • Wednesday: Sunshine with a high of 90. Then mostly clear skies at night with a low around 62.

  • Thursday: Mostly sunny with a high of 92. Partly cloudy skies at night with a low around 65.

  • Friday: Partly sunny with a high of 90. At night, mostly cloudy skies will help keep temperatures above a balmy 67 degrees.

  • Saturday: Partly sunny skies with a high of 86 degrees. More clouds appear at night with a low of 62.

  • Sunday: Mostly sunny skies with a high temperature of 84 degrees.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: 5 things about Austin's weather worth worrying over in October