5 keys to Packers beating 49ers in divisional round

Matt LaFleur’s Green Bay Packers are in a familiar position entering the postseason: a home game at Lambeau Field in the divisional round. For the third straight season, the Packers will face an NFC West opponent in Green Bay to open the playoffs. LaFleur’s team beat the Seattle Seahawks in 2019 and the Los Angeles Rams in 2020 to advance to the NFC title game. A win over the San Francisco 49ers on Saturday night will secure a third-straight trip to the conference championship game.

Can the Packers do what’s necessary to take down Kyle Shanahan’s team?

Legendary Packers coach Vince Lombardi once said the game boils down to two things: “Blocking and tackling.” And this famous quote should reverberate in the cold on Saturday night at Lambeau Field.

Here are five keys to beating the 49ers and advancing to the NFC title game:

Tackle, tackle, tackle

(AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

The Packers finished the 2021 regular season as the second-best tackling team in football, at least in terms of tackling grades at Pro Football Focus. The improvement has been stark; the Packers went from missing 132 tackles in 18 total games last season to just 93 in 17 so far this season. Green Bay’s ability to get ball-carriers on the ground consistently creates a terrific matchup against the 49ers, a team that bases much of its offensive production around gaining yards after the catch in the passing game and beating second-level defenders to cutback lanes in the run game. Tackling has to be a top priority on Saturday night. Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk combined to gain over 1,500 yards after the catch, and consider this: Samuel led the entire NFL in yards per catch (18.2) despite averaging a depth of target of just 8.4 yards, while Jimmy Garoppolo averaged 8.5 yards per attempt (a great number) despite an average depth of target of just 7.7 yards. The 49ers are going to throw short and let playmakers go to work, so the Packers need all 11 on defense to tackle well. If they do, the 49ers probably won’t score enough points to win the game. It might be that simple.

Take advantage of the takeaway opportunities

(AP Photo/Tony Avelar)

Takeaways are a key to winning every week. Creating opportunity is one thing, and taking advantage is another. Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers are going to provide opportunities; Garaoppolo had 14 total turnovers and 25 turnover worthy plays during the regular season, and his interception late in the game last weekend nearly cost the 49ers a win. Over his last three games, including the playoffs, Garoppolo served up eight different turnover worthy plays, possibly due to an injured thumb on his throwing hand. He’s also dealing with a shoulder issue this week. Grip on the ball and accuracy are both potential problems this week, especially in the cold. The Packers must take advantage when opportunities are provided, which means no dropped picks. Dropping interceptions already cost the Packers a win once already this season (at Minnesota), and every member of the starting secondary has at least one drop. Picking off Garoppolo a few times has to be one of the easiest and most obvious paths to victory for the Packers on Saturday night.

Don't lose the line of scrimmage

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The Packers don’t even need to “win” the line of scrimmage. The offensive and defensive lines just can’t decisively lose the line of scrimmage. It’s difficult to envision the 49ers winning the football game without consistently pressuring Aaron Rodgers with four pass-rushers and gashing the Packers in the run game. There have been times throughout the season that the Packers appeared overmatched at the line of scrimmage but either scored a draw or a decisive victory up front, including during the Week 3 win in San Francisco. This time around, the Packers could have David Bakhtiari and three other preferred starters available along the offensive line, and the defensive front is as healthy – with the return of Za’Darius Smith and Whitney Mercilus – as it’s been all season. Keep in mind, the 49ers produced 27 quarterback hits on Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott and rushed for over 300 total yards over the last two games, both road wins. The checklist here is relatively straightforward: Let Rodgers play from clean pockets and keep the 49ers from controlling the game with the run. Much easier said (or written, in this case) than done, but still pivotal.

No special teams implosions

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The Packers’ 32nd-ranked special teams group actually did an admirable job of getting things turned around over the last few games of the regular season, but the third phase must be considered a ticking time bomb until proven otherwise. Handle with care, especially in do-or-die playoff games. The Packers must avoid a familiar letdown on special teams, whether it’s a big coverage error, a missed field goal, a poor punt or a turnover on a return. Back in Week 3, the Packers let the 49ers back in the game after a long kickoff return before the half sparked the comeback. And this team flirted with disaster in at least three or four other games due to special teams blunders. The saddest possible outcome to Saturday night is probably a full-scale special teams disaster finally coming back to bite the Packers in an elimination game.

Run defense has to show up

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Save the most obvious one for last. The Packers run defense can’t get overwhelmed. A dangerous convergence is approaching: the Packers regressed and were not effective against the run over the final two months of the season, while the 49ers run game exploded with rookie Elijah Mitchell and receiver Deebo Samuel (in a running back role) handling the workload over the last 10 games. Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel are among the best in the game at designing the run game and exploiting weaknesses up front. If the Packers aren’t physical and decisive on Saturday night, there’s going to be trouble. But if the run defense shows up, the Packers will reduce or eliminate the best chance for the 49ers to pull off the upset.

This key really combines many of the others. The Packers must handle their business at the line of scrimmage, contain on the edges and tackle well in the box and in space. If they do, they’ll win the early downs and force Jimmy Garoppolo into obvious passing situations, which gives the Packers an opportunity to pressure him into the mistakes he’s so prone to making.

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