These 5 hot housing markets are expected to crash first — do you live in one of these fast-growing cities?
Home prices have soared over the past decade thanks to an acute shortage of available homes, years of ultra-low mortgage rates and sky-rocketing demand for homes fueled by the economic recovery after the Great Recession and the lockdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic.
That’s left home prices much higher than they should be in the long term — but homeowners in certain hot markets shouldn’t count on that to last much longer.
If a recession hits next year, as many predict it will, Moody Analytics’s chief economist told Fortune that he expects home values in “significantly overpriced” markets to tumble by as much as 15% to 20%.
And according to the results of a survey from Consumer Affairs, if you call one of these five cities home, you might want to prepare for your home’s value to take a tumble in the year ahead. In fact, for some of these municipalities, the correction has already begun.
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Austin, Texas
According to Consumer Affairs’ poll, of the 50 most populated cities in the country, 33% of survey respondents believe Austin will be the first American market to crash.
The median home price on listings in Austin for October was $625,000 at $353 per square foot, up 11.6% year over year. But homes had been selling at nearly double that amount, with the median home sale price at $1.3 million at one point, with properties being picked up after a median 41 days on the market.
Prices have already softened since July, when the median home price was $650,000, or $364 per square foot.
If home values continue to decline to a full 15% from the summer’s numbers, that would lower the median listing price to $552,500 — a drop of $97,500.
Atlanta
Atlanta takes the runner-up prize for the most likely city to see a housing crash, with 26% of respondents expecting its prices to fall shortly.
In October, the median listing home price in Atlanta was $426,900 at $263 per square foot, up 5.5% year-over-year. The median home sold price was $425,000, with homes selling after a median of 50 days on the market.
Atlanta is already seeing some modest declines in home values. July’s median listing home price in Atlanta was $435,000 at $267 per square foot. And homes were selling after a median of 40 days on the market — 10 days less than in October.
A full 15% drop in home prices from back in July would lower the median listing price to $369,750 — a drop of $65,250.
Bakersfield, California
Nearly a quarter of survey respondents are preparing for a tumble in housing prices in Bakersfield.
The median listing home price in Bakersfield in October was $384,500 at $217 per square foot, up 14.8% year-over-year. The median home sold price was $370,000, with homes selling after a median 59 days on the market.
While home values — or the value of the homes up for sale — have increased slightly from July, when the median listing home price was $380,000, their value per square foot has dropped from $221 per square foot. And homes are staying on the market longer, with the median number up 13 days from 46 back in July.
A 15% decline from July’s numbers would lower the median listing price to $323,000 — a drop of $57,000.
Los Angeles
Coming in at number four, 23% of those polled believe Los Angeles is the city most likely to see housing prices drop.
As of October, the median listing home price in Los Angeles was $999,000 at $649 per square foot, up 5.2% year-over-year. The median home sold price was $915,000, with homes selling after a median 62 days on the market.
Prices have decreased slightly since July, down from a median listing price of $1 million at $654 per square foot. But the drops can especially be seen in the median sale prices in L.A. — down from $948,000 in the summer. And homes are lingering on the market for nearly two weeks longer, compared to 49 days in July.
If prices drop as much as 15% from the summer’s numbers, that would lower the median listing price to $850,000 — a decrease of $150,000.
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Tied for fourth place with Los Angeles, 23% of survey respondents predict housing prices in Albuquerque will see a significant correction.
As of October, the median listing home price in Albuquerque was $330,000 at $187 per square foot, up 10.6% year-over-year. And homes stayed on the market for a median 57 days.
Albuquerque’s real estate market has also softened a bit since July, when the median listing home price there was $332,500 at $188 per square foot. Homes were selling above listing prices at the time, with a median sale price of $358,892, with homes selling after a median 51 days on the market.
A 15% drop in home prices would lower the median listing price to $282,625, a drop of $49,875.
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This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
