3 things to know about the Georgia governor's race: Kemp's Trump problem. Abrams needs mojo

This is a political analysis piece by Savannah Morning News Deputy Editor Adam Van Brimmer.

As rematches go, Kemp vs. Abrams promises to be epic.

In Kemp, Georgia Republicans have a sitting governor whose success in steering the state's economy through the COVID-19 pandemic propelled him to a win in Tuesday's GOP primary despite repeated attacks from former President Donald Trump.

In Abrams, Georgia Democrats have a candidate with a national profile and the gravitas to raise tens of millions of dollars — or more — in order for her party to win the governor's mansion for the first time in two decades.

Kemp and Abrams advanced to the Nov. 8 general election with primary wins Tuesday. Kemp turned what many thought would be a close race with former Sen. David Perdue into a rout, with Perdue conceding just minutes after sunset and only a fraction of the vote counted. Kemp topped 70% of the vote in a five-way race.

U.S. Senate race: 3 things to know about Georgia U.S. Senate race: Celebrity brands, big money and turnout

Election 2022: Trump is backing 7 Georgia GOP primary challengers. Will his influence swing the election?

'He's not Jesus': Trump picked sides in the Georgia governor's race. His candidate is struggling.

Election 2022: Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin campaigns for Perdue in Savannah ahead of Georgia primary

As for Abrams, she ran unopposed, her mere presence clearing the field of challengers prior to election qualifying in March.

The November showdown will test the influence of both candidates, who were relatively little known at the start of the 2018 election cycle. Kemp was the secretary of state heading into that race and was the underdog in the Republican primary. Abrams was the former Georgia House minority leader known best for her voter registration efforts.

Now, the two will meet in perhaps the highest-profile governor's race in the country. Here's what you need to know.

Can Kemp unite the GOP?

Kemp did what many thought impossible in the Republican primary — he bucked Trump without losing broad support from Georgia's conservatives.

The former president launched a vendetta against Kemp following the 2020 election after Kemp certified results that showed Joe Biden had won the state by approximately 12,000 votes. Kemp then rebuffed Trump's calls to convene a special session of the Georgia General Assembly to nominate an alternative — and Trump-favoring — set of electors to the Electoral College.

Kemp cited the limits of his constitutional authority as governor in declining Trump's request.

Trump responded by recruiting Perdue to run against Kemp. As pre-primary polls showed Perdue trailing Kemp by a significant margin, Trump stepped up his anti-Kemp rhetoric, suggesting that his supports won't turn out to vote for Kemp in November.

Open Letter: Georgia governor hopeful Perdue's run is a crusade against 'rule of law'

Kemp's ability to win over the Trump loyalists and Perdue voters will be vital against Abrams. He won the 2018 race with 50.22% of the vote, barely avoiding a runoff and defeating her by a mere 55,000 votes. He'll need the base to pull off a repeat.

Perdue has already thrown his support behind Kemp, doing so during his primary concession speech. Trump's endorsement may be harder to come by — Trump's ire runs so deep the former president said last year he'd back Abrams over Kemp.

"Having her, I think, might be better than having your existing governor, if you want to know what I think," Trump said during a September 2021 rally in Perry. "Stacey, would you like to take his place? It's OK with me."

Can Abrams find her election year mojo?

Abrams lost the 2018 race to Kemp, but she leveraged that close call — and her political persona — into national notoriety.

She built her base of support through the New Georgia Project, a nonprofit she helped start in 2014 geared toward voter registration. She proved her prowess in the 2018 Democratic primary, drubbing well-respected challenger Stacey Evans.

Election 2022: Abrams is running unopposed in the Democratic primary. How that's impacting her campaign

Meanwhile, Kemp was locked in a primary battle against then-Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle. The race went to a runoff, and Kemp marketed himself as the more conservative candidate, making controversial TV ads that addressed gun rights and a crackdown on illegal immigration.

Kemp's rhetoric further energized Democrats, and Abrams finished with the second most votes in Georgia governor's race history — right behind Kemp's winning total.

Abrams' appeal led to speculation she'd run for federal office in 2020, either as a vice presidential candidate or for a U.S. Senate seat. She did neither, instead campaigning on behalf of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and U.S. Senate hopefuls Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock. All three won.

Abrams was presumed to be running for governor from the moment she decided to sit out of 2020, yet she didn't enter the race until last December. Her presence cleared the field, and with multiple Democratic candidates running for several statewide down-ballot contests, she did little campaigning on behalf of others leading into the primary.

With the Kemp-Perdue race commanding much of the public's attention, the energy around Abrams has been uncharacteristically low. A pre-primary rally in Savannah attracted a small crowd that left supporters voicing concerns about engagement.

However, several political science pros have projected an uptick in enthusiasm for Abrams heading into the fall, especially now that the rematch with Kemp is official.

How will abortion issue, health care play into race?

Among Kemp's signature legislative victories in his first term was passage of the "fetal heartbeat" abortion law, which would prohibit most abortions at around six weeks. A federal judge has barred the legislation from being enacted until after the Supreme Court rules on a Mississippi law that would similarly limit abortions.

That decision is expected in June, and a draft opinion leaked last month suggested the high court would overturn Roe v. Wade, essentially removing federal protection of abortion rights.

If the Roe ruling is repealed, the Georgia law would likely go into effect. Abrams has vowed to dismantle the restrictions should she become governor.

"We should be organizing ourselves to defend our people — to defend women and their rights to an abortion,” Abrams told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution last month.

Abortion is potentially a rallying call for both candidates: Kemp can appeal to anti-abortion voters by pledging to protect the fetal heartbeat law while Abrams works to energize the pro-choice crowd.

Abortion isn't the only health care-related issue sure to be central campaign themes for the candidates. Georgia's maternal mortality rate and mental health services are ranked among the lowest in the nation, and while Kemp and his Republican allies have passed legislation in recent years to address those shortcomings, Abrams is already attacking Kemp on the issues.

She called Georgia the "worst state in the country to live" at a primary campaign stop, citing maternal mortality and mental health. Those issues dovetail with her commitment to expanding Medicaid, something Georgia's Republican lawmakers have resisted under Kemp and his predecessor, Nathan Deal.

Georgia is one of 12 states that hasn't expanded Medicaid.

This article originally appeared on Savannah Morning News: Brian Kemp, Stacey Abrams rematch of 2018 Georgia governor election