3 keys to victory as Cowboys, Giants reignite rivalry

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After a terrible showing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the injury loss of quarterback Dak Prescott, the Dallas Cowboys were left for dead by both media and fans. Then Cooper Rush outplayed Joe Burrow statistically, the defense held another top QB to one touchdown and under 20 points, and Maher hit two 50 plus yard kicks to sneak out a victory.

The New York Giants came into the season with the same feeling Dallas had going into Week 2. The QB isn’t good enough, the running back hasn’t been able to carry the load like a top-five pick should, the offensive line isn’t reliable, and the receiving corps is questionable. With all those issues the Giants have still managed to go 2-0.

It is easy to downplay those wins because they came against the now 0-2 Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers, but the Giants have the league leader in rushing and have held their opponents to 5-for-23 on third-down conversions. New head coach Brian Daboll has his team believing and winning games and that is a huge key to winning in the NFL. What are the key matchups to winning this Monday night contest though?

Stopping the opposing running attack

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Saquon Barkley gouged the top run defense of 2021, the Tennessee Titans, for 9.1 yards per carry in Week 1. He amassed 164 yards on less than 20 carries and that opened up a very efficient pass game for Daniel Jones. That combination allowed New York to wear down Tennessee and go on a game-winning drive of 12 plays for 73 yards, and over four minutes.

The Carolina Panthers saw this game plan from New York and were able to slow it down. While Barkley stayed as the top rusher in the NFL, the Giants fell from the top rushing attack in the league to fifth after Week 2. Barkley rushed three more times, but Carolina held them to almost 100 less yards.

The Panthers and Titans have allowed both more total yards rushing and yards per carry than Dallas has, and the Cowboys have yet to give up a rushing TD. If the Cowboys can make Barkley an inefficient rusher and put the game on the arm of Jones, then they are on the path to victory.

On the other side of the coin the Cowboys front office spent the off-season telling the world they’d be relying on Ezekiel Elliott, but through two weeks the team is 22nd in rushing yards, and barley averages four yards per carry. Elliott has 105 rushing yards, averaging only 12.5 carries a game. That definitely wasn’t the plan going into the season. Elliott does run really well against the Giants historically though, just last season he combined for 162 yards, on 37 carries and two TDs. If there ever was a game for Elliott to break out, this could be it.

Pollard hasn’t started out this season as a top five efficiency rusher like he was all of last year. Only averaging 25 yards rushing a game and 3.4 yards per carry. Pollard did hit a 60-yard play, but it was considered a pass reception. With Cooper Rush at QB, the offense needs Pollard’s playmaking ability even more to help put points on the board.

This contest’s questionable offensive lines and unproven quarterbacks are a recipe for a run-first game on both sides.

Which QB makes less mistakes

This game is set up for the Cowboys to take over through creating turnovers, which they’ve only done once after leading the NFL in 2021. Cornerback Trevon Diggs was the league leader with 11 interceptions, the team had 26 in total, added eight fumble recoveries, and scored five times. With Prescott out the defense could need to set the offense up to score, or even get a touchdown themselves.

The Giants could be the perfect team for Dallas to take advantage of here. Jones has played 51 games in his career and has 51 turnovers. Many quarterbacks throw picks, and he has 30 of those, but it is the mix of the pass rush combined with Jones’ 21 lost fumbles that should get Quinn excited to take over this game.

Rush avoided disaster multiple times last week because a Cincinnati defender couldn’t haul in a possible interception. In Baltimore, Martindale had two top-10 takeaway rankings in his four years as defensive coordinator of the Ravens. His attacking style mixed with inexperience everywhere except running back could be a game changer for the 2-0 Giants.

The team that wins the turnover battle wins the football game 70% of the time.

Downfield passing game

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88)

So far this season both the Giants and Cowboys have had very conservative game plans for their offenses. The Giants have the top rusher in the league, but the passing game has been anemic. Jones is 23rd in the NFL at only 6.6 yards per pass, Rush is at 6.8. In their win versus the Carolina Panthers New York averaged 3.7 yards per play. That was less than what Dallas produced in their loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The receiver talent seems to be there with Kenny Golladay, who averaged over 16 yards per catch before coming to the Giants and Darius Slayton had over 15 yards per catch in two seasons in New York as well. The big plays simply haven’t been there. The team has run 128 offensive plays & only four have been for 20+yards. That is the lowest in the NFL.

Dallas is sixth in the NFL in yards allowed per pass, leaning on an elite pass rush to help eliminate deep pass plays by not giving offenses time to push the ball down field. The Giants will need to find a way to get big plays passing in order to put more points on the board than the 20 they are averaging so far this season.

Last season Dallas had the top offense in scoring and yards, but the team has changed significantly and the big plays are far from a sure thing. Even with Prescott, the bigger plays aren’t guaranteed due to the lack of weapons and unproven offensive line. Gone are Amari Cooper, Cedric Wilson, and Blake Jarwin to stretch the field. Dalton Schultz looks doubtful to play with an injury, and the OL has a rookie left tackle, left guard, and the center and right tackle are far from elite. Cooper Rush being the starting QB over Prescott only highlights those other issues. Even if Jason Peters and Michael Gallup play, their effectiveness is a huge unknown.

The Giants defense can be had though if the Cowboys can execute. Besides Adoree’ Jackson, the cornerback room is bad in New York, and the defense gives up plenty of big pass plays. 24% of completions against the Giants defense have gone for over 20 yards, that leads the league. Dallas might need to try and hit big plays with their star receiver CeeDee Lamb, or speedsters like Simi Fehoko and KaVontae Turpin. With points at a premium the ability to hit a couple long pass plays could be the key to victory Monday Night.

You can find Mike Crum on Twitter @cdpiglet or at Youtube on the Across the Cowboys Podcast.

Story originally appeared on Cowboys Wire