3 candidates are chasing Ken Paxton for Texas AG. Can he survive his legal troubles?

George P. Bush, Rochelle Garza and Joe Jaworski all have a common obstacle: Ken Paxton.

Despite the embattled attorney general’s legal troubles, he has proven himself a formidable opponent with many experts predicting Paxton will advance out of the runoff as the Republican nominee for the general election.

Bush, who serves as Texas land commissioner, hopes to oust him in this month’s runoff. Garza, a civil rights attorney and Jaworski, a former Galveston mayor, hope to do the same in November as the Democratic nominee.

The three candidates have been on the campaign trail for months trying to convince voters they’re a better pick than Paxton. But polling shows Republican voters haven’t abandoned Paxton even though he’s among the more vulnerable incumbents seeking reelection, said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin.

“I think he’s not bulletproof, but I think at this point he’s fortunate in his opposition,” Henson said.

A decision will be made May 24. Early voting starts Monday.

Paxton won 43% of votes in the March primary, followed by Bush’s 23%. Garza was the top vote-getter in the Democratic primary with 43% of votes. After a narrow victory over civil rights attorney Lee Merrit, Jaworski got the second spot with 20%.

Ken Paxton’s chances

Paxton has been indicted for securities fraud since 2015, after being elected as attorney general in 2014. It’s also come to light that he’s being investigated by the FBI for allegedly using his office to aid a political donor.

Paxton’s opponents haven’t shied away from criticizing Paxton for his legal issues, but they may not matter much at the polls.

Sixty-three percent of Republicans said they view Paxton favorably, according to an April poll by the Texas Politics Project at UT-Austin. Eighty-two percent of those polled — Republicans and Democrats alike — said they were only somewhat familiar with Paxton’s legal troubles or they knew little or nothing about them.

“The less voters know about that, the better off he is, but there are also a good number of voters in the Republican primary who don’t care very much at all about that,” said Cal Jillson, a SMU political science professor.

What’s more important is that voters view Paxton as a fighter against Democrats, the Biden administration and Washington.

“So many Republicans are willing to look past legal problems including indictments if they think that candidate is a fighter for conservative values or at least Republican values,” Jillson said.

Democrats have considered a primary with Paxton in it their best shot of winning a statewide race, Jillson said.

“They think that the courts, the FBI, subsequent indictments might drop him and a Democrat squeak by,” Jillson said.

That’s possible, but he cautioned that Paxton’s legal troubles have stretched out for years. His state case has not gone to trial and the FBI investigation hasn’t lead to an indictment, Jillson said.

“So unless that happens, I think he wins,” Jillson said. “If that does happen, we get a fascinating study of whether even an FBI inquiry or indictment could dissuade the Republican primary electorate from voting for their candidate.”

Paxton’s campaign did not return emails seeking comment.

George P. Bush battles Paxton, his last name

Running in the primary’s first round versus the runoff is “night and day,” Bush told the Star-Telegram.

Earlier in the primary, before Bush ousted former Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and congressman Louie Gohmert, the three candidates were sparring with each other as they fought for a place in the runoff with Paxton.

This time around, it’s like “running against a ghost,” Bush said, noting the two have yet to debate.

Bush think’s people will see him on the campaign trail and see he’s working hard to make his case to voters. But Jillson noted that when candidates are ahead, they’re trying to defend against mistakes, which make debates “a mixed bag at best and a potential to stumble at worst.”

To compete with Paxton, Bush has leaned into top Republican priorities on the campaign trail, the most prominent of which is securing the Texas-Mexico border. He’s even called for a declaration of an “invasion” on the border, criticizing the Biden administration’s border policy.

“Texas has been left with no choice, we must assert our sovereignty and immediately declare an invasion of our state under the U.S. constitution,” he said in an April 28 statement.

Bush proposes sending state attorneys to border communities to help process criminal charges for things like trespassing and said he’d challenge Biden on Trump-era immigration policies Biden has tried to reverse.

But Bush has more than just Paxton to contend with. His last name has given him some trouble on the campaign trail as Paxton tries to paint him as an establishment candidate.

Bush — the son of former Florida governor Jeb Bush and grandson of former President George H.W. Bush — makes a point to distinguish himself from his family, including by touting his endorsement of Trump in 2016 and 2020.

“I will never run away from being a member of my amazing family that has contributed so much to the state of Texas and to our great country,” Bush said. “But the state of Texas and people in the conservative movement know that I am my own man.”

Democrats vie for November ballot spot

Asked what distinguishes her from her opponent, Garza points to legal experience and electability, referencing the 43% of votes she received in the five-person primary. She has practiced immigration, family, criminal defense and constitutional law. She faced Paxton and the Trump administration in a case involving a pregnant 17-year-old immigrant who was denied access to an abortion while in detention.

“That kind of experience, that understanding is going to be critical in this office, and it will allow me to focus on uplifting Texas families and addressing all of the issues that are really impacting us,” Garza said.

Jaworski, in an interview with the Star-Telegram, said he thinks that in the March primary voters wanting to support a woman helped boost Garza into the first place spot. Jaworski also noted that he was “largely unable to get a message out” and that some voters weren’t familiar with the candidates.

This time around, as voters consider two candidates instead of five, Jaworski thinks the vote will be more intentional, and he wants votes to be based on experience.

“We ought not to think about gender,” he said. “We ought to not think about race. We ought to think about the content of the proposals, and who’s got the spirit necessary to mend the broken government.”

Garza, a new mom, stressed the importance of having a candidate representative of voters, especially as women face the possibility of losing abortion access in a state where it’s already restricted.

“This is about representation,” Garza said. “The voters have said that they want to see a qualified, woman of color represent them in this office.”

Jaworkski also pointed to experience as what sets him apart in the race. Jaworski said he has more than 30 years of experience as a lawyer, has served on the Galveston City Council and as the city’s mayor and now works as a mediator.

“I’ve had a lot of opportunity to be tested and to be studied,” he said.

Jaworski thinks he can appeal to moderate voters who do not support Paxton.

“Moderate Republicans who supported Bush and Guzman are certainly not going to vote for Paxton just because he’s got an R by his name,” he said. “But even better, they may do something they’ve never done, and that is vote for the lesser of two evils — I say that facetiously — Joe Jaworski.”

What other statewide races are on the runoff ballot?

Five other statewide races have primaries on May 24. They are:

• Lieutenant Governor: Democrats Michelle Beckley, who represents the Carrollton area in the Texas House, and Mike Collier, who ran for the same seat in 2018, are vying for a place on the November ballot to challenge Republican incumbent Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.

• Land Commissioner: With Bush running for attorney general, the Texas land commissioner seat is open. There are runoffs in the Republican and Democratic primaries. Jay Kleberg, the former associate director of the Texas Parks and Wildlife Foundation, and Sandragrace Martinez, a counselor and mental health policy advocate, are in the Democratic runoff. State Sen. Dawn Buckingham of Lakeway and Tim Westley are in the Republican runoff.

• Comptroller: Democrats Janet Dudding, an accountant, and Angel Luis Vega, a strategist and author, are in a runoff for Texas Comptroller. The winner will face Republican incumbent Glenn Hegar in the general election.

• Railroad Commissioner: Incumbent Wayne Christian and oil and gas attorney Sarah Stogner are in the Republican runoff.