2023 Oscars heat index: Ke Huy Quan and Avatar: The Way of Water make waves
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Who's up and who's down among the 2023 Oscars contenders?
With the fall festival circuit behind us, the whispers of awards greatness have echoed from the peaks of Telluride, through the canals of Venice, and over the border into Toronto. Major players already staked their claim on prime real estate in the awards conversation — but who has the potential to go the distance, and who is all talk as the hunt continues through the end of the calendar year?
Read on to find out which films and performances are making waves in the awards race in our Oscars heat index — before Jimmy Kimmel returns to host the 95th telecast in March — below.
20th Century Studios/ A24 'Avatar: The Way of Water' and Ke Huy Quan become top Oscars contenders.
Dec. 7: The rise of Ke Huy Quan and the critical rush of Water
Who's up:
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once — What once seemed like a far-off fantasy for an actor who hasn't been in a major Hollywood production in 36 years is inching closer to reality, as the Goonies and Indiana Jones star earned major precursor prizes from the Gotham Awards and the New York Film Critics Circle. Though the group's choices don't always cross over with the Academy's, they're often a crucial indicator of strong tides to come. With the film around him generating huge Best Picture heat (and for Michelle Yeoh's leading performance), it's safe to say Quan is no longer simply going along for the ride, but comfortably riding in his own lane.
PICTURE, DIRECTOR: James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water — Many were skeptical about the Titanic helmer's ability to recapture the magic (and audience interest) of his 2009 blockbuster Avatar, but initial reactions from the first showings of The Way of Water are uniformly enthusiastic in their praise for the big-budget follow-up. Not only was it hailed as a "visual masterpiece" enroute to domination in the tech categories, but some also called it "bigger, better & more emotional" than the first film — which earned Picture and Directing nods at the 2010 ceremony. Now, its upcoming Oscars haul could amplify, too.
On the horizon:
The National Board of Review announces its annual year-end winners on Thursday
Critics among the LAFCA will deem the best performances and films of the year on Sunday, providing another opportunity for Best Actor and Actress leaders Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Cate Blanchett (Tár), who triumphed with the NYFCC, to add more prizes to their growing hauls.
The Golden Globes will unveil its 2023 nominations. But, following months of controversy regarding racial exclusion among its membership (which the Hollywood Foreign Press Association says it has corrected), will the group be able to reclaim its once-gilded spot at the forefront of the awards conversation?
Marvel / Universal 'Black Panther: Wakanda Forever' and 'The Fabelmans' rise as major contenders in the 2023 Oscars race.
Nov. 16: Black Panther wins for Wakanda as Colin Farrell and The Fabelmans hit their stride
Who's up:
PICTURE: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Ryan Coogler's sequel to Marvel's Best Picture-nominated 2018 blockbuster needed to post huge numbers to solidify its standing in the Oscar race, and with $181 million in domestic sales over its initial three-day run (atop of stellar reviews), it is — like its predecessor — officially too big for Oscar voters to ignore. Expect technical (and potential above-the-line recognition) from the Academy as the film continues pacing to become one of the top-earning projects of the year through December.
PICTURE: The Fabelmans — Joining Black Panther as a box office success story is Steven Spielberg's pseudo-autobiographical drama about his formative years as a filmmaker. Like the Marvel juggernaut, Fabelmans averaged just over $40,000 per theater on just four specialty screens since Friday. That's a healthy start indicating a potential slow-burning hit that should keep the film afloat as it expands and generates even more critical and industry support in the weeks ahead.
ACTOR: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin — Farrell is quickly rising as a front-running contender to receive his first-ever Best Actor nomination, after scoring the Palm Springs International Film Festival's Desert Palm Achievement Award. The PSIFF regularly honors eventual Oscar nominees at its annual gala, including recent Academy Awards players like Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog), Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick… Boom!), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Kristen Stewart (Spencer), and Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers).
Who's... well, we're not quite sure?
PICTURE: Babylon — Social media reactions for Damien Chazelle's highly anticipated Hollywood epic ran the gamut, from accusations of being "monstrous in its thudding insistence on shoving the viewer's face in the muck and claiming it's something novel or moving" to "extravagant, decadent and all together delightfully delicious" visuals tied together by "phenomenal filmmaking." EW writer Lauren Huff deemed the film as not "for everyone," though she still praised it for being an "absolute spectacle of filmmaking." Polarized reception can be good for a campaign out of the gate, especially if the project in question is as daring as Babylon appears to be. Provoking impassioned praise from enthusiastic supporters can work wonders on the circuit, out of the view of critical journalists. It's important to distinguish Hollywood from those who cover Hollywood; critics and filmmakers don't have the same instincts (Green Book winning Best Picture, anyone?), so it's far too soon to peg an aesthetically boundary-pushing, industry-centric tale as unfit for… well… awards from the industry.
Nov. 8: The rise of Till star Danielle Deadwyler and the curious case of The Whale
A24 / Orion Pictures Danielle Deadwyler and 'Everything Everywhere All at Once' rise in the Oscars race.
Who's up:
ACTRESS: Danielle Deadwyler, Till — Best Actress is perhaps the most exciting acting play of the season, with Cate Blanchett (Tár), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once), and more jockeying for the top spot. While Blanchett has the edge as Tár continues attracting strong crowds at the prestige box office, Till actress Deadwyler has ridden the awards machine on the strengths of her work versus baked-in name recognition. With Metacritic and Rotten Tomatoes scores standing at 78 and 98, respectively, affection in the industry is high for the Whoopi Goldberg-produced project (it doesn't hurt to have an Academy board member on your side) and Deadwyler's fact-based portrayal of a real-life civil rights activist fighting for justice for her murdered son, Emmett Till, speaks to politics of the contemporary moment, too. It's the kind of rousing, inspirational performance that appeals to cross-demographic parties, from general SAG voters who just got their union cards to esteemed critics voting for the New York Film Critics Circle awards.
PICTURE, ACTRESS: Everything Everywhere All at Once, Michelle Yeoh — Everything was everywhere (all at once, seemingly out of nowhere) following its unpredictable box office run this spring, when the dark horse title garnered strong word-of-mouth to become specialty distributor A24's highest-grossing movie with $102 million in global ticket sales. Unlike The Whale (more on that later), the film ticked upward on goodwill from audiences and critics carrying it through the summer, hibernating a bit while other contenders did the perennial rise-and-fall dance through the fall festivals. Now, the path is clear for A24 to ramp up interest in the movie once again, as it's one of the best-reviewed titles of the year with strong critical and audience affection bolstering acting bids for stars Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan.
Who's down:
PICTURE, ACTOR: The Whale, Brendan Fraser — There's no concrete recipe for concocting a surefire Oscar contender, but The Whale (featuring Fraser's first leading role in a major production in years) nailed down a formula that, on paper, seemingly pointed to the star's comeback vehicle being a locked contender through the season. The film might've peaked too high, too hard, and too early, however, after an enthusiastic reception on the fall festival circuit. In recent weeks, director Darren Aronofsky took a few hits in the media after his controversial quotes about searching for actors to play the lead role of a 600-pound man dying from obesity. The awards race, like American politics, is a game of strategy and campaigning, and a meteoric rise at the top of the race can put a target on a respective contender's back. It's too early to tell whether blowback for the film's more sensitive elements exists in a social media vacuum, or if it'll translate to general audiences as well, as the movie doesn't open until Dec. 9.
PICTURE: Armageddon Time — Things looked promising for celebrated filmmaker James Gray's directorial follow-up to 2019's ambitious space epic Ad Astra, given the project's beloved cast (Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins) and prime positioning at Cannes at the top of the season. Its rollout since then, however, has been a muted affair. While not quite an apocalyptic start, ticket sales over the movie's first weekend in wide release were less than stellar, with the film averaging a mere $788 per screen at 1,006 North American theaters. Audience interest might not be where it needs to be for the movie to make a significant commercial impact, but the strength of its stars' performances — coupled with strong critical reviews — will keep Armageddon from outright doomsday on the trail so far.
On the horizon:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever aims to dominate the box office — and potentially replicate the Oscars and SAG Awards success of its predecessor — when it releases on Nov. 11.
The Film Independent Spirit Awards will unveil their 2022 nominees on Nov. 22.
Sept. 20: Steven Spielberg towers at TIFF, Harry Styles' My Policeman tumbles
Searchlight / Universal / Sony / Amazon Prime 2023 Oscars Heat Index: Tracking the top awards contenders of the year.
Who's up:
PICTURE, DIRECTOR: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans — The TIFF People's Choice Award is inarguably one of the most important prizes a contender can win on the fall festival circuit. In the last 10 years, all 10 of the award's recipients have gone on to either win (Green Book, Nomadland, 12 Years a Slave) or be nominated in the Academy's Best Picture category. And Spielberg's new film is the latest TIFF victor with its sights set on Oscars glory. The filmmaker's auto-biographical drama has been hailed as a deeply personal, introspective gaze into one of the most celebrated minds in Hollywood history, and the industry's long-standing penchant for movies about moviemaking only builds a stronger case for the film's run through the season ahead.
ACTOR: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin — Though winning Best Actor at Venice doesn't clear a direct path to the Oscars (only four Venice Volpi Cup winners have gone on to win or be nominated for Best Actor by the Academy across the last 22 years), it certainly doesn't hurt, especially when early passion culminates around a long-overdue heavyweight like Farrell. The actor's performance in his reunion picture with In Bruges collaborators Brendan Gleeson and Martin McDonagh generated glowing reactions at Venice and TIFF, meaning Farrell could be the exception to the rule when it comes to tracking Venice's crossover with the Academy.
ACTRESS: Viola Davis, The Woman King — Reviews following the film's TIFF premiere indicated that director Gina Prince-Bythewood's historical epic The Woman King might be a solid Hollywood action spectacle versus a heavy-hitting awards contender. Still, critics praised Davis' performance, and the film's No. 1 weekend debut in North American theaters signified her as a business-driving force. While the movie might not tick all the above-the-line boxes, Davis' power is undeniable both on screen and at the box office, and her peers shouldn't ignore those achievements this year.
Who's down:
PICTURE, ACTOR: Harry Styles, My Policeman — It's not impossible (see: 2011's Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close), but films that bag mostly negative reviews out of the gate are typically dead in the water when it comes to snatching above-the-line recognition from the Academy. Director Michael Grandage's soapy historical love story about repressed gay lovers currently stands at 42 percent on Rotten Tomatoes based on 26 reviews filed on the fall festival trail, and its Metacritic rating sits at a concerning 48 percent. Styles' sexually explicit scenes will have social media buzzing, but that won't be enough to spark passion in awards voters.
PICTURE, ACTOR, SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Hugh Jackman and Laura Dern, The Son — Florian Zeller's directorial follow-up to his universally praised, Oscar-winning masterwork The Father earned select scathing reactions following its world premiere in Venice, and the sentiment carried through to Toronto, where responses ranged from heralding the film's "tragic power" to downright vicious attacks on the film's "manipulative" narrative. Playing ex-spouses co-parenting an emotionally vulnerable teen, Jackman and Dern's performances fared best with critics, but with the film hitting the scene early with a polarized profile, there's little hope that this successor will follow in its cinematic forefather's footsteps.
On the horizon:
The 60th New York Film Festival runs from Sept. 30 through Oct. 16, and stands to continue the momentum built at other festivals by titles like White Noise, Armageddon Time, Corsage, Decision to Leave, Tár, Triangle of Sadness, Bones and All, and Women Talking. Two world premieres could shake up the race: #MeToo origin story She Said (starring Carey Mulligan) and Chinonye Chukwu's Emmett Till biopic, which could launch Danielle Deadwyler (playing Emmett's mother) into the Best Actress conversation.
All eyes will also be on Billy Eichner's gay rom-com Bros to do big numbers at the box office when it debuts on Sept. 30. If the film can maintain a healthy presence in theaters, the critically celebrated love story's chances at earning a Best Original Screenplay nomination should increase, just as they did for Bridesmaids and The Big Sick in 2011 and 2017, respectively.
Sept. 7: Brendan Fraser, Cate Blanchett build buzz out of Telluride and Venice
EW See what's up and what's down in the 2023 Oscars race.
Who's up:
ACTOR: Brendan Fraser, The Whale — Standing ovations are standard procedure at film festivals, but the one Fraser received at the Venice premiere for his new, transformative drama overwhelmed the one-time blockbuster star. Visibly shaken and reluctant to stand for the crowd at first, the actor appeared to be shocked that he'd earned such praise. He's long been open about his difficult journey through Hollywood, but he should get used to the glowing affection for his career resurgence in The Whale, which sees him playing a man affected by life-threatening obesity who attempts to reconnect with his estranged daughter (Sadie Sink). Fraser already has the "comeback" and "overdue" narratives in place — plus what is, by all accounts, a genuinely great performance — on his side, but the emotional kick from his charm and humility so far on the press circuit ahead will be the real key to securing Oscar attention this year.
ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett, Tár — Across-the-board adoration for the two-time winner's turn as an impassioned German orchestra conductor crescendoed through Venice like a rolling wave of thunder. Time will tell if she can strike Oscar gold for the third time, but in a Best Actress race that has yet to take concrete form, the odds are singing in Blanchett's favor.
ACTOR, ACTRESS: Timothée Chalamet and Taylor Russell, Bones and All — Chalamet's long-awaited reunion with Luca Guadagnino appears to be another winning match for the Call Me by Your Name duo, as the reactions to the cannibal love story out of Venice praised the striking performances from both the Dune actor and Russell, his leading lady.
PICTURE: Cannes holdovers — James Gray's 1980s-set ensemble piece Armageddon Time and Hirokazu Kore-eda's Broker sustained their momentum from Cannes to equally positive reactions in Telluride, so expect both to continue their winning streak as the year progresses. The next stop for Armageddon is the New York Film Festival, while Broker will aim to dazzle critics at TIFF.
Who's down:
PICTURE: Don't Worry Darling — Reported tension on set? Casting chaos? Alleged spitting at the Venice premiere!? Regardless of the truth behind the numerous dramas that bubbled up in recent weeks over Olivia Wilde's directorial follow-up to Booksmart, it's clear that interest in the project has moved beyond its narrative scope or aesthetic qualities. Marred by memes and gossip about supposed dust-ups during production, chatter for the film now centers squarely on the personalities involved (Miss Flo, Harry Styles) instead of the film itself (initial reviews also didn't help). When your prestige project is predicated by tabloid trash fires, it's maybe time to do a little worrying, darling.
PICTURE: Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths — A prominent lie awards pundits told themselves? That Birdman and The Revenant helmer Alejandro González Iñárritu's latest feature was a shoo-in based on the filmmaker's name (and Oscar-verified past) alone. Reviews out of Venice and Telluride for the ambitious project about a journalist who goes on an epic journey through an existential crisis have been lukewarm at best, and dismissive at worst. That's definitely not the kind of buzz you want building in your corner at this early stage.
On the horizon:
The end-of-year festival schedule rolls on, with the New York Film Festival running from Sept. 30 through Oct. 16, followed by the AFI Fest kicking off on Nov. 2.
Other contenders appear to be biding their time, as the promotional tour for Damien Chazelle's Hollywood epic Babylon — which hasn't screened at a major festival — only just began on Sept. 7 with a stream of first-look images showing off stars Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie. David O. Russell's Amsterdam (with an ensemble that includes Robbie, Christian Bale, John David Washington, Chris Rock, Anya Taylor-Joy, Robert De Niro, and Taylor Swift) is also quietly building toward its Oct. 7 release date without much fanfare and, you guessed it, no festival screenings just yet.
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