2020 and your money: 5 surprising trends in a tumultuous year for Americans and their finances
A year ago, not many people saw a devastating pandemic headed our way. But when it arrived, who could have predicted some of the ways people reacted with their jobs, investments and spending?
The past year has been unusual not just from a public-health standpoint, but in terms of personal money behaviors and economics. Many of the typical financial patterns that you’d expect to see in a recession year just didn’t pan out.
Some examples:
The economy bounced back remarkably fast
Recessions usually last 12 to 18 months or longer, as happened during the Great Recession of 2007-09. It doesn't necessarily have to be this way, especially when a slump is self-induced rather than caused by housing overbuilding or other signs of excess. The COVID-19 downturn that started in February and possibly ended several months later could go down among the shortest on record.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, which defines the start and end of recessions months in hindsight, hasn't yet concluded that the 2020 slump is over. But with unemployment dropping, economic output rising and the stock market clearly anticipating better times ahead, the recession appears to be over. The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines should hasten the end.
"This broad economic recovery will not change the fact that the pandemic has left many individuals impoverished and many small businesses closed forever," said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds, in a late-December commentary. However, he said, "The U.S. economy will recover as it always does."
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The stock slump ended quickly, too
The stock market spends most of its time meandering higher. Bull markets on average last more than twice as long as bear downdrafts. This year’s plunge of 34% in February and March wasn’t atypical in magnitude – only a bit less severe than the average 42% drop. But this latest downward phase ended in five weeks, and that was unusual.
Investors this time really looked past the chasm – job losses and rising infection tallies, among them – to focus on what ultimately drives stock prices: corporate profits.
"The overall earnings picture started improving in early July as big parts of the U.S. economy ... started coming out of the pandemic-driven lockdown,” wrote Sheraz Mian, research director at Zacks Investment Research in a December update. Soon-to-be-released numbers for the fourth quarter will be better than the third-quarter tallies, which were better than the second-quarter results, which marked the cyclical bottom, he said.
The profit picture should continue to improve in 2021 as more people get vaccinated and lockdown measures ease, Mian added.
Home buyers ignored the bad news
Maybe it's memories of the Great Recession, when falling home prices not only coincided with but contributed to a serious economic contraction. Whatever the case, the housing market has fared remarkably well in a tough year.
Buying a home is the biggest investment most Americans make, and all the pandemic uncertainty out there should have given buyers reason for pause. But that hasn't happened, with sales through November up 26% over the past 12 months and the median price of $310,800 up nearly 15%, reported the National Association of Realtors.
Ultralow interest rates, which make mortgages more affordable, help to explain this trend. Also, supplies are tight, and plenty of people working from home have decided to invest in their dwellings, now that they're spending so much time there. Besides, many of the individuals who can afford homes – middle- and upper-income professionals –haven't been hurt as much by the pandemic compared to low-income workers.
Still, you just don't expect to see these kind of housing numbers in a recession year.
"Given the COVID-19 pandemic, it's amazing that the housing sector is outperforming expectations," said Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist.
Americans lived within their means
A tough economic year required belt-tightening, but many people, surprisingly, have gotten their finances in better shape.
Consumer credit-card balances have fallen to a record-low 4.5% of disposable income, the American Bankers Association reported. Also, bank deposits have surged, loan delinquencies have remained modest and personal and business bankruptcies are way down – roughly 40% below last year's level, reports the American Bankruptcy Institute.
Granted, consumer finances have been propped up by stimulus checks and other relief measures (such as new rules that provide easier, penalty-free access to retirement funds). Nor have there been as many things on which to splurge – foreign vacations, restaurant meals, sporting events or even movie tickets.
Still, these and other statistics suggest that Americans can live within their means when necessary.
"We can pay debts down – we just don’t want to," observed Howard Dvorkin, chairman of Debt.com.
Work was transformed overnight
Maybe the most remarkable employment trend of 2020 – even more than the steep job losses suffered earlier in the year – has been the overnight surge in work from home.
From a small proportion of workers at the start of the year, more than 80% had transitioned out of office settings, at least part time, by April, according to a Gallup survey. That has since eased to around 60%, but flexible work is here to stay.
Many employees like it, and executives are more accepting of it, with productivity remaining the same or better and the recruiting and retention of workers often better.
All this wasn't conceivable little more than a decade or so ago, before the widescale availability of laptop computers, cellphones, broad Wi-Fi capabilities and video conferencing. Employee skills have kept pace.
“COVID-19 has opened employers’ eyes to their workers adaptability,” according to a report by workforce-consultancy Mercer. “For the most part, this experiment, though forced, has been a surprising success.”
Much of this shift will be permanent, Mercer predicted, with one in three employers now expecting at least half of their staffs to work remotely after the pandemic abates.
Reach Wiles at russ.wiles@arizonarepublic.com.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Your Money in 2020: 5 trend surprises amid the coronavirus pandemic
