2020 AFC South Preview
Yahoo Sports’ Senior NFL Writer Frank Schwab gives an in-depth breakdown of the division. Including team-by-team roster changes, key points of the schedule, and his over/under picks for season win totals.
Video Transcript
FRANK SCHWAB: The reigning AFC South champions traded away one of their best players this offseason. And combine that with a few other moves in the division, and are we looking at a big change at the top of the AFC South?
We're gonna start in Indianapolis with the Colts, who really transformed their team this offseason. When you look at the roster, obviously they added quarterback Philip Rivers, but that wasn't the only big move they made. They traded for DeForest Buckner from the San Francisco 49ers.
And then they didn't have a first round pick, but they did make up for it I thought in the second round by getting Michael Pittman, the receiver out of USC. Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor. This is a Colts offenses that's totally transformed. New playmakers and a new quarterback leading the way.
With the Colts schedule, there's a key four-game stretch from weeks nine through 12 that are gonna make or break their season. It starts with the Baltimore Ravens, one of the best teams in football. Then they play the Tennessee Titans, who they're gonna be battling for the division with. The Green Bay Packers come to Indianapolis after that, a really tough game for them. And then they play the Titans again. Those four games are really gonna determine how good the Colts are this season.
The Colts over under at BetMGM is 8 and 1/2 games, and I'll take the over. Because I think now they have some stability at quarterback. They've added some playmakers on both sides of the ball. I really, really like this Colts team. I think they're gonna win the division, and I think they're gonna go over that 8 and 1/2 wins.
Next, we move on to Nashville and the Tennessee Titans, and their offseason approach was basically to run it back. And how can you blame them after the way they finished last year? Made the AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Had the tough loss there.
But they have to feel like they're a team on the rise. They resigned Ryan Tannehill. They gave the franchise tag to Derrick Henry. This is mostly the same Tennessee Titans team hoping to take the next step to the Super Bowl.
In the schedule, there's a key three-game stretch. It's huge for them. Again, the games against the Colts are right in the middle of that. Weeks 10 through 12, they play the Colts, then they play at the Ravens, and then they play at the Colts. If they can go even 2 and 1 in that stretch, the Tennessee Titans could be looking to get right back into the playoffs.
When I look at their over-under at BetMGM, it's also 8 and 1/2, and I'll take the over for them too. I really like the way this team finished last year. I don't think Ryan Tannehill is a fluke. I think he just was rejuvenated getting out of Miami. If Derrick Henry stays healthy, the running game will lead the way. And I do like the Titans to go over 8 and 1/2 wins.
Next, we'll move on to maybe the most controversial team of the offseason, and that's Bill O'Brien's Houston Texans. The roster is gonna look a lot different. We know the big move. They traded DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona for running back David Johnson, a move that set the NFL world on fire. The Texans tried to replace Hopkins by signing Randall Cobb, trading for Brandin Cooks. It's not gonna be the same offense, but at least they do have some weapons still for Deshaun Watson.
In their schedule, they start off with maybe the toughest two games back to back in the NFL. Week one they play at Kansas City, the defending champions. Chiefs will obviously be fired up for that game. And then in week two, they get the Baltimore Ravens. Maybe getting the top two teams in the NFL. The Houston Texans are looking at an 0 and 2 start.
Houston Texans over-under at BetMGM is 7 and 1/2, and I'm gonna have to go under. I do like Deshaun Watson a lot, but there's so much noise with this team. They kind of outperformed their metrics last year to win the division. I just don't see them recapturing that. And I think the loss of Hopkins is huge for them, so I'm leaning with the under with the Houston Texans at 7 and 1/2.
And finishing up the AFC South is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are in full rebuild mode. Maybe this is the team tanking for Trevor Lawrence. Traded Calais Campbell, traded Nick Foles, already traded cornerback Jalen Ramsey last season. And it's not gonna be an easy year in Jacksonville.
When it comes are Jaguars schedule, we're gonna learn right away if they can be contenders in the AFC South. They host the Indianapolis Colts, then travel to play the Tennessee Titans. If the Jaguars could win both of those games, or even one of them, they might go in with a little bit more momentum than everybody thinks they can have as they rebuild.
The over-under at BetMGM this year is five wins, and I just don't think the Jaguars can even get to that. They're giving Gardner Minshew every chance to be the quarterback of the future. But if he doesn't work out and they go 2 and 14, 3 and 13, maybe they're in position for a number one pick and the Clemson quarterback everybody wants to draft.
If you want to get in on the action, go to betmgm.com/yahoo and sign up today. New users get a 100% match up to $1,000 for first-time deposits. To recap the AFC South, I do have the Indianapolis Colts winning the division. I think Philip Rivers does make a big difference there, and they've added a lot of key pieces.
Right after that, the Tennessee Titans. I think this is a very good team that will be in playoff contention. Houston's gonna take a little bit of a step down. They're in third place. And the Jacksonville Jaguars will be in dead last this season.