Take 2 movie bloggers make picks for delayed Oscars ceremony

Apr. 21—The pandemic fundamentally altered the 2020 movie season. Instead of seeing award-worthy fare in theaters, we grabbed our remotes and streamed them at home.

The 93rd Academy Awards on Sunday, April 25, prove the show must go on. Let's look at which movies are most likely to bring home Oscars this year.

Best picture

* "The Father"

* "Judas and the Black Messiah"

* "Mank"

* "Minari"

* "Nomadland"

* "Promising Young Woman"

* "Sound of Metal"

* "The Trial of the Chicago 7"

"Nomadland" rolls into the Oscars with best picture honors at the Golden Globe Awards, British Academy Film Awards and Producers Guild Awards. Last year, "1917" carried that same momentum into the Oscars and lost to "Parasite," so the race isn't over yet.

If you watch

What: The 93rd Academy Awards

When: Sunday, April 25, 8 p.m.

Where: ABC

More online: Joe Baress and Rebecca Kivak make their picks for additional Oscar categories.

Twitter: Follow Joe (@dukemich) and Rebecca (@TTRebeccaKivak) for updates during the Oscar ceremony.

Still, "Nomadland" has no clear No. 1 challenger in its rearview mirror, and it was one of the most realistic films of the year. "Sound of Metal" gives audiences an emotionally resonant and unique experience that makes it one of the best films of the extended movie season. However, not even a flat tire can stop "Nomadland" from reaching the stage at the end of the night.

Should win: "Sound of Metal"

Will win: "Nomadland"

— JOE BARESS

Best director

* Thomas Vinterberg, "Another Round"

* David Fincher, "Mank"

* Lee Isaac Chung, "Minari"

* Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"

* Emerald Fennell, "Promising Young Woman"

In a breakthrough for female directors, this year marks the first time two women have been nominated. Expect the firsts to continue when Chloé Zhao becomes the first woman of color to take home the award for best picture favorite "Nomadland" — and just the second woman to claim the honor in Oscars history.

Zhao is the undisputed frontrunner, picking up trophies at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice Awards, Directors Guild Awards and BAFTAs. She effortlessly blended fiction and nonfiction, eliciting great performances from a cast of veteran and nonprofessional actors.

David Fincher earned his third nomination, and Emerald Fennell made a splash with her bold directorial debut. But no one has come close to standing in Zhao's way of making history.

Should win/will win: Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"

— REBECCA KIVAK

Best actor

* Riz Ahmed, "Sound of Metal"

* Chadwick Boseman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

* Anthony Hopkins, "The Father"

* Gary Oldman, "Mank"

* Steven Yeun, "Minari"

Riz Ahmed had a breakout performance in "Sound of Metal," and Anthony Hopkins gained some momentum with his BAFTA win earlier this month. However, the late, great Chadwick Boseman gave the best performance of his career in his final role in "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom." His effort made his death that much more crushing, as cancer robbed audiences of many more great performances from him. After Boseman's Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild wins, he will rightfully become the first actor to win an Oscar posthumously since Heath Ledger in 2009 ("The Dark Knight").

Should win/will win: Chadwick Boseman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

— JOE BARESS

Best actress

* Viola Davis, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

* Andra Day, "The United States vs. Billie Holiday"

* Vanessa Kirby, "Pieces of a Woman"

* Frances McDormand, "Nomadland"

* Carey Mulligan, "Promising Young Woman"

This is the wild card race of the night. Viola Davis, Andra Day, Frances McDormand and Carey Mulligan split the honor across this year's major awards. Day earned notice with her Golden Globes win, but the battle may come down to two previous Oscar winners.

Davis' powerhouse performance received a much-needed boost from her Screen Actors Guild victory. However, the actress may be doomed by the omission of "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom" from the best picture race.

Enter Academy favorite Frances McDormand, who reveals a softer side in "Nomadland." The film is a frontrunner for best picture and has swept the awards circuit. This bodes well for McDormand's shot at a third Oscar.

Should win: Viola Davis, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"

Will win: Frances McDormand, "Nomadland"

— REBECCA KIVAK

Best supporting actress

* Maria Bakalova, "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm"

* Glenn Close, "Hillbilly Elegy"

* Olivia Colman, "The Father"

* Amanda Seyfried, "Mank"

* Yuh-Jung Youn, "Minari"

While Amanda Seyfried took her career to another level in "Mank" and Oscar winner Olivia Colman continued to impress alongside Anthony Hopkins in "The Father," Maria Bakalova's accomplishments in "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" proved most shocking. She went from a no-namer to someone audiences will see for years to come after her performance in the comedic satire. She brought life, heart and comedy to a film that stars Sacha Baron Cohen as an absurd character created 15 years ago.

Bakalova impacted her film more than anybody in this strong category, but Yuh-Jung Youn injected life and heart into "Minari." After SAG and BAFTA victories, Youn will keep the momentum.

Should win: Maria Bakalova, "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm"

Will win: Yuh-Jung Youn, "Minari"

— JOE BARESS

Best supporting actor

* Sacha Baron Cohen, "The Trial of the Chicago 7"

* Daniel Kaluuya, "Judas and the Black Messiah"

* Leslie Odom Jr., "One Night in Miami ..."

* Paul Raci, "Sound of Metal"

* LaKeith Stanfield, "Judas and the Black Messiah"

"Borat" mastermind Sacha Baron Cohen showed he can tackle drama in "The Trial of the Chicago 7." LaKeith Stanfield inexplicably wound up in the supporting category when his role in "Judas and the Black Messiah" ostensibly is the lead.

But this is Daniel Kaluuya's award to lose. The two-time Oscar nominee ran away with nearly every honor this awards season for his stirring performance as Black Panther chairman Fred Hampton. Expect Kaluuya's winning streak to continue tonight.

Should win/will win: Daniel Kaluuya, "Judas and the Black Messiah"

— REBECCA KIVAK

Best original screenplay

* Will Berson and Shaka King, "Judas and the Black Messiah"

* Lee Isaac Chung, "Minari"

* Emerald Fennell, "Promising Young Woman"

* Darius and Abraham Marder, "Sound of Metal"

* Aaron Sorkin, "The Trial of the Chicago 7"

Emerald Fennell's script for "Promising Young Woman" has the most momentum after Writers Guild of America and BAFTA wins, but this category remains wide open. Fennell's writing lacks, and "Promising Young Woman" is the worst best picture nominee. Darius and Abraham Marder's "Sound of Metal" screenplay elevated the film with unique storytelling. Aaron Sorkin won a Golden Globe for his "Chicago 7" script, and if he wins his second Oscar here, that film could upset "Nomadland" for best picture.

Should win: Darius and Abraham Marder, "Sound of Metal"

Will win: Aaron Sorkin, "The Trial of the Chicago 7"

— JOE BARESS

Best adapted screenplay

* Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman, Lee Kern and Nina Pedrad, "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm"

* Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, "The Father"

* Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"

* Kemp Powers, "One Night in Miami ..."

* Ramin Bahrani, "The White Tiger"

With its nine credited writers, the hilarious and timely "Borat Subsequent Moviefilm" took home the Writers Guild award, which buoyed its Oscar chances. In "The Father," Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller translated Zeller's stage play into a moving portrayal of dementia on the big screen and won the BAFTA for it.

However, it's hard to go against momentum, and "Nomadland" has plenty of it. Zhao received four of the film's six Oscar nominations (see also adapted screenplay, picture, director and film editing). With the number of accolades the film has collected, the ball should roll in Zhao's favor.

Should win/will win: Chloé Zhao, "Nomadland"

— REBECCA KIVAK

Best animated feature

* "Onward"

* "Over the Moon"

* "A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon"

* "Soul"

* "Wolfwalkers"

"Soul" deserved consideration for a best picture nomination and overmatches every film in this category. With incredible animation, voice work and music, the Pixar film gave audiences an emotionally powerful story with plenty of heart. It will become the fourth Pixar film to win this category in the last six years.

Should win/will win: "Soul"

— JOE BARESS

Best sound

* "Greyhound"

* "Mank"

* "News of the World"

* "Soul"

* "Sound of Metal"

This is the first year the Oscars combined the previous categories of sound mixing and sound editing. The award traditionally goes to a war film, which puts the World War II drama "Greyhound" in good position.

But "Sound of Metal" will remix the category. The immersive drama about a heavy-metal drummer losing his hearing beautifully shifts between sound and silence. In an ironic twist, a film that embraces the use of silence will triumph.

Should win/will win: "Sound of Metal"

— REBECCA KIVAK

Best original score

* "Da 5 Bloods"

* "Mank"

* "Minari"

* "News of the World"

* "Soul"

As great as the scores are in this category, Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross will earn their second Oscar ("The Social Network" was their first). They'll have two shots at it with "Mank" and "Soul." Reznor and Ross went outside their comfort zone to capture the time period in "Mank." The "Soul" score is more up their alley and slightly better, as they collaborated with Jon Batiste's jazz compositions and arrangements to create phenomenal music that fit perfectly with the film. "Epiphany" proved to be one of the most beautiful pieces of the year and complemented a pivotal scene in "Soul." The score already earned Golden Globe and BAFTA victories.

Should win/will win: "Soul"

— JOE BARESS

Best visual effects

* "Love and Monsters"

* "The Midnight Sky"

* "Mulan"

* "The One and Only Ivan"

* "Tenet"

The groundbreaking "Tenet" featured special effects never before seen on film. Christopher Nolan's technical marvel relied mostly on practical effects, using frontward and backward action simultaneously. Buildings explode and reconstruct in frame. The mind-blowing feat delivered the extended 2020 movie season's most audacious visuals.

Whether you spell it backward or forward, "Tenet" set a new bar for special effects.

Should win/will win: "Tenet"

— REBECCA KIVAK

Contact the writers: jbaress@timesshamrock.com; 570-348-9100, ext.9125; rkivak@timesshamrock.com; 570-348-9100, ext. 5126