10 Best College Football Predictions Against The Spread Week 6

pete fiutak

Sat, Oct 8, 2022, 2:54 AM·13 min read

10 best predictions for the big Saturday of college football. What games appear to be the best bets and best picks for the Week 6 games?

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Results So Far: 36-24-1

We got the bad week out of the way.

It was bound to happen, and hopefully those of you who know how this rolls timed the fade right.

Everything went weird going 3-7, but now comes the bounceback.

No messing around with anything funky. No point totals – although under on the Duke-Georgia Tech 55 might be a meatball right down the middle of the plate. No gimmicks. Ten picks against the spread, ten winn…

Here’s the problem starting last week and going forward. It’s easier to find the disparities with 88 games and all the massive spreads fueled by too much guessing in the market.

Now the games are more even in an Any Given Saturday sort of way with conference play going, there are only 55 to choose from, and …

Whinin’ ain’t winnin’. Let’s do this.

Here we go with the 10 best college football predictions against the spread starring with …

Click on each game for the preview

10. Texas A&M at Alabama

LINE Alabama -24.5
ATS PICK Texas A&M

I will never, ever, ever fault you for taking Alabama at home giving away points no matter how many they are.

I know this is a revenge game after losing last year, and I know the tiff between the coaches will matter, and I’m aware that it’s quite possible the Bama defense goes off and pitches a perfect game.

Is Bryce Young ready to go, and if so, what kind of shape is his shoulder in? I’m actually fine with the number even if he does play and is fine.

Alabama destroyed Utah State, ULM, and Vanderbilt. Texas? Way too close. Arkansas? The fourth quarter was devastating, but it got dicey 45 minutes in.

Alabama still has to prove it can be amazing for four quarters against someone good. Of course it can, but I’ll take the chance that A&M will bring something to this, too.

This is the most talented defense Alabama has faced so far. A&M might have lost to Mississippi State 42-24 last week, but it gave up a pick six and a kick six along the way. That D should be able to keep the Tide from going off.

Again, though, not fighting you if you see something completely different, and that also goes for this …

9. Auburn at Georgia

LINE Georgia -29.5
ATS PICK Georgia

I know, I steered you terribly wrong last week believing Georgia would be Georgia again against a mediocre Missouri. That didn’t work out so well.

Georgia is back at home, somehow this is Auburn’s first road game of the season, and then there’s the scoring.

Auburn doesn’t really do that.

If you have a hard time getting to 17 points a home against Missouri, and you only score 24 against San Jose State, what are you going to do against a jacked up Georgia team at 3:30 on a Saturday afternoon on CBS?

Why did Georgia struggle over the last two weeks? No turnovers over the first three games, five in the last two. Auburn isn’t going to get the takeaways needed.

8. Oregon State at Stanford

LINE Oregon State -7
ATS PICK Stanford

Warning, this the last stop before the train hits all favorites the rest of the way.

After a crazy start to the season and a wild Week 5, I’m buying into the idea that the favorites are about to settle in. I’ll bite on the Cardinal, though.

Oregon State gets a whole lot of love for pushing USC to the brink, but it’s been forgotten that it had to work a bit to get by Boise State and somehow got out alive against Fresno State. And then last week it all fell apart in the loss to Utah.

Another theme for this week that’s starting to show a pattern: turnovers. Oregon State has given away eight in the last two games with no takeaways.

Stanford is back at home for the first time in a few weeks, but it’s a touchdown underdog after going 1-3 with the lone win coming against Colgate. Yeah, and those other three games?

USC, at Washington, at Oregon.

Turnovers have been a problem, but the passing game has been solid, and this week even with the loss of leading rusher EJ Smith, the ground attack will be fine.

Think about Stanford winning outright, by the way.

College Football Expert Picks, Predictions: Week 6

7. Washington at Arizona State

LINE Washington -13.5
ATS PICK Washington

At this point in the season I like to have a few more variables to go off of. Washington has only played one road game, and it wasn’t quite itself against UCLA.

Granted, the Bruins were brilliant in the 40-32 win, but the Huskies started to kick it all in in the second half. It was too late, but it was a moment that showed they really might be that good and got caught in tough road game against a solid unbeaten team.

Arizona State covered against USC, and the defense has been relatively okay despite giving up close to 34 points per game over the last four losses. However, Oklahoma State, Utah, and USC all beat the Sun Devils by more than 14 points.

The Huskies should throw and throw some more on the way to an easy win.

6. Virginia Tech at Pitt

LINE Pitt -14.5
ATS PICK Pitt

The Pitt loss to Georgia Tech was strange.

The Panthers threw the ball well, but the defense had a rough day against the run, it didn’t come up with any takeaways, and Georgia Tech forced three turnovers in the 26-21 win.

Virginia Tech should be the cure to that.

The Hokies can’t score – you and a few friends could score more than ten against North Carolina – they can’t run the ball, and the defense doesn’t come up with anything big with just two takeaways in the last four games.

Pitt should rebound from last week without a problem.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 5: Nevada at Colorado State

5. Nevada at Colorado State

LINE Nevada -3.5
ATS PICK Nevada

You’re totally forgiven if you want nothing to do with this.

It’s a Friday night game, and things don’t tend to follow form when it comes to weeknight games when everyone’s schedules and rhythms are off.

And then there’s the Jay Norvell factor. He’s the former Nevada coach whose team was strong last year, but he left for a better all-around deal at Colorado State.

If you took out those first two funky elements this would be easy – Nevada should roll.

This isn’t the Wolf Pack team of last year, and it’s on a rough three-game losing streak, but losing at Iowa in a horrendous storm and at Air Force isn’t a big deal. Losing to Incarnate Word wasn’t great, but that was a wild shootout with a slew of mistakes and crazy twists.

It’s not like losing at home to Sacramento State 41-10.

Colorado State lost to Michigan and Washington State on the road, but it also lost at home to Middle Tennessee by 15 and got rocked by the Hornets of Sacramento State.

Nevada can run and Colorado State can’t, Colorado State will turn the ball over and Nevada doesn’t, and …

The program is going to be jacked to beat its former coach.

Staying in the Mountain West.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against the Spread No. 4: Air Force at Utah State

4. Air Force at Utah State

LINE Air Force -10.5
ATS PICK Air Force

I was all in thinking BYU was going to body-slam Utah State last Friday night.

It didn’t, it was a fight, and what should’ve been a blowout was a 38-26 Utah State loss. Maybe that means Utah State is getting stronger in the second month of the season. Maybe it showed that the defense is about to step up and give Air Force a run.

After all, the Falcons are 4-0 at home, and 0-1 on the lone trip away to Wyoming.

Nah.

Utah State has been solid against the run over the last few games, but Air Force has taken things to a whole other level. Am I concerned about the 13-10 win over Navy? Not really – option game recognizes option game.

Am I worried that Wyoming stuffed the offense in the 17-14 win? Not really – Air Force was missing a few parts and that was a weeknight game.

10.5 is a lot, though, to give away on the road, but 1) the Utah State 35-7 loss to Weber State was just a few weeks ago and it’s still ugly, 2) Air Force has a way of bouncing back after a weak performance with something great, and 3) turnovers.

Utah State is a turnover machine, giving it away 15 times this year with 13 of them coming in the last three games. It also doesn’t help that the D hasn’t generated a takeaway in the last two weeks.

Air Force isn’t forcing takeaways, but it also isn’t giving them up. There were two fumbles, but those were the only two giveaways over the last three weeks.

And then there’s the time of possession battle. Set the over/under on the time Air Force has the ball at about 39:50.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 3 Florida State at NC State

3. Florida State at NC State

LINE NC State -3.5
ATS PICK NC State

If I miss this that means I need to clear the cache, reboot the system, and try seeing things differently.

Without thinking about the spread – or guessing what it was actually going to be – I came away from the game preview thinking NC State would win by double-digits, but the spread is just 3.5.

I’m not saying I see something everyone else doesn’t – again, there’s some life tweaking that might need to be done – but I have three problems with this.

First, I have the unshakeable belief that if LSU had a warm-up Week 0 game, it beats Florida State in Week 1. Most of the mistakes in the 24-23 loss were opening day jitters and things that needed a live scrimmage to get past.

Second, the 31-21 FSU loss to Wake Forest last week was a problem mainly because the running game didn’t rock. It struggled to run against LSU, and that was almost a loss, It ran for a season-low 112 yards against the Demon Deacons, and lost.

NC State has hardly been perfect, but it’s stuffing the run and that includes keeping Clemson from going off last week in the 30-20 Tiger win.

And finally, NC State won’t turn the ball over enough to matter. Florida State came up with seven takeaways against LSU, Louisville, and Boston College, and none against Wake Forest.

As is you’d give away three from the home team. The extra hook is fine considering NC State will probably win the turnover battle, the running game will start working again, and the defense will be terrific.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 2 Wisconsin at Northwestern

2. Wisconsin at Northwestern

LINE Wisconsin -10
ATS PICK Wisconsin

I’m steering into the skid assuming everything will settle in once it all stops.

I am well aware at the nightmare that Northwestern occasionally is for Wisconsin. I am very well away that any turnover issues for the Badgers becomes doom against Pat Fitzgerald’s program.

And I’m very, very well aware at the turmoil inside the Wisconsin program.

The easiest calls this year came after coaches got fired. Nebraska, Georgia Tech, Arizona State, they all didn’t suddenly get better after getting rid of their respective head men, and all of them got rolled right after.

No one around Wisconsin is happy about Paul Chryst getting fired. It was a shocker, but so was the abysmal performance against Illinois with two net rushing yards in a 34-10 loss.

But Northwestern is awful.

Granted, Wisconsin hasn’t showed a whole lot of punch so far outside of the 66-7 annihilation of poor New Mexico State, but Northwestern’s defensive front is getting worn as a hat. That’s about to continue.

More than that, the turnover battle should work on the other side. The Wildcats are giving it away in bunches – 12 turnovers in the last four games – and with defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard taking over for now, this become a pride game for that D.

Forget the Ohio State loss – Ohio State is at a whole other level. The Badger defense actually hasn’t been bad. It was solid against Illinois, find in the loss to Washington State, and now it needs some help from the other side.

If Northwestern plays like it has over the last four games, Wisconsin will pound away and keep pounding some more.

If that doesn’t happen and this doesn’t work, then the Badger program really is messed up and we’ll all act accordingly.

I think the opposite happens.

NEXT: College Football Pick Against The Spread No. 1 Duke at Georgia Tech

1. Duke at Georgia Tech

LINE Duke -3.5
ATS PICK Duke

I CAN NOT BELIEVE I’m going this hard on the Duke freaking Blue Devils.

I couldn’t find any real reason to like them going into the season, I assumed they’d be the worst team in the ACC by a mile, and I was really, really wrong.

New head coach Mike Elko has done wonders right away in a 4-1 start, and it mostly comes down to one key thing: mistakes.

Duke doesn’t make them.

The concern here is the schedule so far. There’s no reason to start fitting Duke to ACC Championship rings quite yet after beating Temple, Northwestern, North Carolina A&T, and Virginia. but it won all four games by double digits, the lone loss was a 35-27 fight at Kansas, and …

Again, mistakes. Duke has only turned the ball over twice so far in five games, it doesn’t get hit with penalties, and the team is 4-0 when coming up with multiple takeaways.

And then there’s Georgia Tech. It came up with a shocking 26-21 win at Pitt last week as interim head man Brent Key is trying to open up the offense more and looking to make more big things happen. It worked with three takeaways – and a +3 turnover margin – getting the job done.

The only other win was against Western Carolina when the D generated four turnovers.

It might seem thin, but I’m buying into the turnover thing. Duke needs to lose the mistake battle by a mile, and it won’t.

It’ll be balanced offensively, the passing game will move the chains, and 3.5 isn’t enough to worry about if you think the road team will win outright.