Zelensky faces impossible task ahead of meetings in Washington

The fate of billions in assistance for Ukraine remains in limbo Monday morning even as President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to make a crucial pitch to senators and House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday.

Zelensky’s visit to Washington – his third since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 – is unlikely to shift a now cemented dynamic in Washington that Republicans, even those that back additional funding for Ukraine, aren’t willing to do more unless Democrats and the White House concede on major policy changes on the US southern border.

It’s a complicated moment for the White House, which has made the case again and again that Zelensky and his country are at a critical inflection point in their fight for Democracy. And yet, President Joe Biden’s administration may not be able to deliver the resources it has promised if a domestic, decades-long fight over immigration doesn’t rapidly yield a breakthrough soon.

Bottom Line: It’s more likely than not that Congress leaves at the end of this week without having passed additional aid, without a breakthrough on border policy and without a clear roadmap of how to ensure the funding passes in the thorny months ahead when a showdown over government spending, an impeachment inquiry and the presidential election are in full swing.

How much money is actually left?

As CNN reported last week, there is just about $2 billion still available in the eyes of the administration the US can send out. There is $4.8 billion left in the presidential drawdown authority, but that funding is used to send existing US stockpiles to Ukraine and the US only has about $1 billion left to replenish those stockpiles. There is then about $1 billion left in intelligence and defense surveillance funds.

What to watch

Zelensky’s crucial meetings on Capitol Hill with Senators: Senators are well aware of the dynamics on the battlefield, Ukraine’s dire needs and the implications of congressional inaction could have on the long-term outlook of Democracy in Europe and around the world. It was the topic of a classified briefing last week and an issue that leaders on both sides don’t deny. Republicans like Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, GOP Whip John Thune and other leaders like Sen. John Cornyn of Texas talk about it all of the time, but that has done little to impact their view that border security has to be part of any package for additional aid. Does that shift, soften or change? Not likely. Does it shift Democrats view of what they’d be willing to give on the border? We’ll see.

The speaker and Zelensky: Perhaps the most crucial meeting Tuesday will be the one between Johnson, the newly-minted speaker, and Zelensky. The last time Zelensky came to Washington, Kevin McCarthy was in the speaker position. Sensitive to the conservative backlash he could face for appearing too cozy with Zelensky, McCarthy avoided a photo opportunity in the hall and instead of escorting Zelensky to a meeting, Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries did it. It was just a few weeks later, McCarthy lost his job all together. The speaker might be new, but the internal dynamics within the GOP conference remain unchanged.

“America has sent enough money to Ukraine. We should tell Zelensky to seek peace,” Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida tweeted Sunday.

Johnson has signaled that he is supportive of more aid to Ukraine, but has also made it clear to Senate leaders that the price for putting it on the House floor will be steep. Does a meeting with Zelensky, change the underlying dynamics of the moment? Unlikely. Johnson can’t put a bill on the floor without strong border security and even then he still could lose dozens of GOP votes. But this is still a major opportunity for Zelensky to build a relationship with a speaker who still has some grace within his conference and who will ultimately determine in the months ahead – more than any other figure in Washington – whether Ukraine gets the US aid it believes is so crucial to its survival as a country.

State of border talks

Senate negotiators continued talking over the weekend, but if you caught the leads on Sunday shows you know, there were no major breakthroughs. Aides tell CNN that the there was no major progress over the weekend.

“We are still in the room trying to deal with Republican demands,” Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut said on NBC. “We’re not going to put Donald Trump’s immigration policies into statute. It would be bad for the country.”

Sen. James Lankford, the top Republican negotiator said a lot of progress had been made, but it’s time to be able to finish this and make a decision and do what we can do to be able to help the nation.

The lack of “aha” moment here tells you everything you need to know about the timeline for a deal. It was always incredibly unlikely lawmakers would stay in Washington to pass a supplemental, but if negotiators aren’t even on the cusp of a deal, if they aren’t in the final phase of negotiations, it’s all but guaranteed lawmakers will head home by the end of the week barring any last-minute push by leadership to keep them here to force that progress.

The things still on the table at this point are, sources tell CNN, too conservative for Democrats to agree to. CNN reported Friday the sticking points that remained and the new list of GOP demands that included among other things, a massive crackdown on how the administration uses parole and a new national expulsion authority that was similar to Covid-era restriction that allowed border patrol to swiftly turn around migrants at the US- Mexico border. Republicans are also trying to insert a policy that would bar someone from seeking asylum in the US if they passed through a “safe third country” where they could have applied for asylum.

US trip finalized on Friday, White House official says

Zelensky’s last-minute trip to Washington came together late last week with the details of the trip being finalized Friday, a White House official said, as further aid for the war-torn country remains stalled on Capitol Hill.

Talk of the trip arose mid-week as the Ukrainian president was preparing to travel to Argentina for the inauguration of President Javier Milei over the weekend. US and Ukrainian officials agreed to move forward with the visit to Washington since Zelensky would already be in the same hemisphere, giving the White House a chance to show commitment to Ukraine and speak to why that support should continue, the official said.

“He was eager to come to the United States, and we’re glad to have him at this critical moment,” the official said. “Who is a better advocate for his country than President Zelensky?”

This story has been updated with additional developments.

CNN’s Arlette Saenz contributed to this report.

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