New York Republicans see hope in Trump’s latest abortion stance

NEW YORK — Donald Trump’s latest position on abortion is giving GOP House candidates running in New York’s swing districts some political cover — or so they hope.

The former president’s declaration this week that abortion laws should remain under the control of states instead of the federal government handed battleground GOP candidates a chance to defuse the wedge issue — especially in predominantly Democratic states where voters broadly support abortion rights.

“I care about the difficult choice women have to make, said I would reject a national abortion ban and kept my word,” Hudson Valley Rep. Marc Molinaro said.

“I have been very consistent on this issue: I oppose a federal ban,” said Rep. Mike Lawler, another vulnerable GOP first-term lawmaker from the Hudson Valley.

“I remain firm in my opposition to any proposed nationwide abortion ban,” Long Island Rep. Anthony D’Esposito said.

Each is facing a tough challenge in November, when Democrats are hoping to win back control over the House of Representatives by yoking their opponents to what have proven to be unpopular abortion restrictions.

The presumptive GOP nominee’s stance on one of the defining issues of the presidential race — coupled with his vow not to sign a nationwide abortion ban — offers down-ballot Republican candidates an opportunity to strengthen their argument that the electoral outcome won’t upend state-level protections. It's a marked shift from the 15-week federal ban Trump had floated, a policy that would have radically altered abortion access in blue states like New York. In 14 interviews, GOP candidates and staffers expressed more confidence in their chances of neutralizing the contentious issue, while Democrats described plans to stay on the offensive.

This is the impact of Trump’s abortion move in a Democratic state where Republicans turned out surprise wins two years ago. And it stands in contrast to the panicked mood in battleground states across the nation, where Republicans fear continued electoral losses around this issue.

New York is expected to play a key role in determining which party controls the House next year, with six seats considered in play in the narrowly divided chamber. And abortion will likely loom large in New York: Though strong state-level measures already safeguard access to abortion, Democrats have been wielding the threat of losing them to rally their voters.

House Republican candidates and first-term lawmakers, meanwhile, have been trying to push back on those arguments here, and Trump’s announcement this week could ungird those claims by GOP candidates.

Republican Alison Esposito, who is challenging first-term Hudson Valley Democrat Pat Ryan, has sought to temper concerns about potential federal action to restrict abortion under Republican rule.

“[Abortion policy is] not going to change in New York, it’s not going to change with this election,” she said.

And Trump’s comments this week bolstered her own position, she added.

“I don’t think Trump saying that gives me anything more than I had yesterday,” Esposito said. “Abortion was not on the ballot.”

Democratic candidates nevertheless won’t change their plan to campaign heavily on their support for abortion rights — an effective strategy across the country since Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court in 2022. That will especially be the case in New York, where voters will consider a proposed amendment to the state constitution that would enshrine a broad array of rights, including access to abortion.

Their campaigns also argue Trump is inherently untrustworthy and would still support a national ban if there is a political upside. They point to Trump’s Supreme Court appointments who were pivotal in the Dobbs decision, which the former president has touted as one of his signature accomplishments.

“This is their legacy and they own it,” Democratic House candidate Laura Gillen, who is challenging D’Esposito, said.

Trump’s campaign did not respond to messages seeking comment.

Since the overturning of Roe, state lawmakers and Gov. Kathy Hochul have made it easier to access abortion services, including for people living in states where stricter measures have been put in place since the Supreme Court’s decision.

But abortion will remain a nationalized issue for Democratic House candidates in New York, and Trump’s comments this week won’t dramatically alter their plan to warn voters that abortion rights remain under threat here, their campaigns said.

“The American people can see through his BS,” Ryan said. “There should be no doubt: Reproductive freedom is at stake in every single state, and I will fight like hell to protect it.”

“Nobody believes that the guy who is running around celebrating overturning Roe v. Wade will veto a national abortion ban,” Democratic House candidate Josh Riley said.

John Mannion, a state senator running for the Syracuse-area House seat held by first-term Republican Brandon Williams, will continue to raise the specter of a national ban as he campaigns.

“The voters who are talking to me and the people in my state Senate district and the congressional district I’m running in are not fooled by the messaging that’s come from the former president,” Mannion said.

Williams’ campaign declined to comment.

Democrats vehemently disagree that Trump’s comments this week provide their GOP opponents with a political remedy.

“Donald Trump has not given Mike Lawler cover, because Donald Trump’s record of supporting and being instrumental in the overturning of Roe v. Wade is Mike Lawler’s record,” Democrat Mondaire Jones said.

As if to underscore the political peril facing Republicans, Trump on Wednesday knocked an Arizona court ruling that effectively banned abortion in the state with the sole exception of the life of the patient being in danger.

Republicans in New York and elsewhere have sought to sidestep the abortion debate by focusing on inflation and border security — two issues that public polling has shown have consistently resonated with voters as top-level concerns.

Democrats this fall will try to boost turnout in New York with a proposed amendment to the state constitution that would guarantee the right to an abortion if approved by voters. The campaign to get the amendment approved is expected to cost $20 million.

Some Republicans caution that Trump’s statement won’t necessarily persuade moderate voters who support abortion rights.

“Trump’s stance takes some energy out of the issue in places like New York,” said GOP consultant Dave Catalfamo, who advises Molinaro.

But he acknowledged some Republicans have been “uncomfortable” discussing abortion publicly and added, “Democrats are going to spend an awful lot of money making them more uncomfortable.”

Mia McCarthy contributed to this report.