Women’s NCAA Tournament predictions: Can anyone stop South Carolina?

Predicting the 2024 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament:

Final Four

No. 1 seed South Carolina. The Gamecocks appear to be the best team in the country, but they did last year, as well, before falling short against Iowa in the national semifinals. And though anything can happen in March, it feels inevitable that Dawn Staley will lead her team to a fourth straight Final Four appearance. South Carolina features key veterans Te-Hina Paopao and Kamilla Cardoso on a roster packed with defense-forward playmakers. The only undefeated team in Division I college basketball holds opponents to just 56.31 points per game, and sits atop the NET rankings after seven (impressive) ranked wins.

No. 2 seed Stanford. Tara VanDerveer has done it again. After last season, the Cardinal lost several key pieces to graduation, the WNBA draft and the transfer portal. But Stanford is back like it never left, fresh off its Pac-12 regular season title and led by one of the nation’s best duos in Kiki Iriafen and projected lottery pick Cameron Brink. All season, the Pac-12 consistently showed itself as one of — if not the — most cutthroat conferences in the sport, and the Cardinal escaped with a league record of 15-3. Stanford had an early exit (relatively speaking) last season when it was upset by Ole Miss in the round of 32, and the Cardinal probably won’t let that happen again.

No. 2 seed UCLA. Ranked as high as the No. 2 team in the nation this season, the Bruins finished their brutal Pac-12 schedule with a league record of 13-5. But when head coach Cori Close and graduate students Charisma Osborne and Cam Brown have the Bruins locked in for 40 minutes, they’re nearly unbeatable. Close likes to hang her hat on selfless play, which has resulted in a deep roster. After a disappointing double-overtime loss to rival USC in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals, UCLA will be looking for revenge. Which is necessary, with the gauntlet that is the Albany 2 Region.

No. 2 seed Ohio State. The Buckeyes were perfect in 2024, until back-to-back losses to Iowa (in the final game of the regular season) and Maryland (in the Big Ten Tournament) gave them more rest before the NCAA Tournament than many anticipated. The regular season Big Ten champions are probably hunting for redemption, and another deep run in the Big Dance after last season’s Elite Eight. The Buckeyes are defined by their defensive intensity, and are led by four double-figure scorers in Jacy Sheldon (18.0), Cotie McMahon (14.1), Taylor Thierry (11.4) and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Celeste Taylor (10.2).

National champion

South Carolina over UCLA. If you’re going to point out any weakness in the Gamecocks’ armor, it’s the “inexperience” surrounding its few upperclassman leaders. Staley has made mention all season about this roster’s calmness, and how that helps lift South Carolina in high-pressure moments. And, after watching that in action for more than 30 games this season, it’s hard to pick against the Gamecocks. UCLA stands — what appears to be — its best chance at a title since the AIAW days (when the Bruins won it all in 1978) and, truthfully, has everything it needs to take the title. Like South Carolina, the Bruins’ future is bright, with several of UCLA’s stars being only sophomores, but the team has struggled to overcome scoring runs from the stiffest of Pac-12 competition. Though those lessons could prove to be the difference when it’s all said and done, this one is South Carolina’s to lose.

From the Bluegrass to the Big Dance

No. 6 seed Louisville. For the second year in a row, Louisville is the lone commonwealth representative in the NCAA Tournament. There’s plenty of talk about a potential second-round matchup between the Cardinals and former floor general Hailey Van Lith if things go chalk in Baton Rouge, but Jeff Walz knows better than to look ahead, especially in March. The decorated coach has led Louisville to four Final Fours in 17 seasons, and he certainly has his eyes set on another deep run. Will he make one? Maybe so.

The Cardinals drew one of the less favorable first-round matchups in No. 11 Middle Tennessee State, a high-endurance, defensive-minded roster that took down Tennessee in nonconference play. Louisville’s biggest struggle this year? Holding on to the ball. It’s been an issue all season. The Cardinals average 15.5 turnovers per game, just over MTSU’s average number of turnovers forced per game. These teams played last season, too; the Blue Raiders beat the Cardinals by double digits but, through both the portal and graduation, these rosters do look different. Louisville is deeper than MTSU, but it may not be as disciplined.

Upset specials

Anything can happen in March, and that only gets more true year after year as we continue to see more and more parity in the sport. Feeling risky? Here are a few upset selections, from the safest bet to the tallest task.

▪ No. 9 Michigan State will edge No. 8 North Carolina

▪ No. 11 Auburn/Arizona will defeat No. 6 Syracuse

▪ No. 11 Middle Tennessee State will beat No. 6 Louisville

▪ No. 12 South Dakota State will upset No. 5 Utah

Bracket breakdown

1. Quest for the final 1 seed. With undefeated South Carolina assumed to be the top-overall seed and Iowa locked and loaded with its Big Ten Tournament title, there were two No. 1 seeds up for grabs heading into Sunday night’s Pac-12 Tournament championship game. Stanford, the regular season conference champion, had done enough to secure a No. 1 seed, but another trophy would’ve made it a done deal. Instead, Southern Cal upset the Cardinal — giving the Trojans enough juice to remain on that top line. The following Tuesday, Texas, which needed to prove itself one last time to the committee, defeated tournament team Iowa State in convincing fashion to hoist the Big 12 trophy; and that proved to be just enough to surpass the Cardinal for the last remaining No. 1 seed.

2. Ivy League triumphs. The committee surprised many by leaving out bubble teams like Miami (Fla.) and Mississippi State in lieu of the Columbia Lions, who fell short in the league’s conference tournament championship to co-Ivy League champion Princeton. Though Columbia has to face off against Vanderbilt in what will probably be the toughest First Four game, the Lions’ inclusion in the field marks the first time they’ve ever made the NCAA Tournament, and the first time since 2016 that the conference will send two teams to the Big Dance.

3. Two record-breaking scorers. Both Iowa’s Caitlin Clark and Syracuse’s Dyaisha Fair have delivered in their final seasons of college basketball.

Clark became the all-time leading scorer in NCAA Division I women’s basketball against Michigan on Feb. 15, surpassing previous record holder Kelsey Plum. Clark went on to surpass both Antoine Davis and Pete Maravich to claim the all-time scoring record against Ohio State on March 3. She enters Saturday’s game against the winner of Holy Cross and UT Martin with 3,771 career points.

Fair is also climbing the all-time women’s scoring list. Against Pittsburgh on Feb. 25, the graduate guard passed Brittney Griner to claim sole ownership of the No. 5 spot, and No. 7 all-time regardless of gender. Fair has 3,351 career points entering Saturday’s first-round matchup against the winner of Arizona and Auburn.

4. First rodeos. Columbia isn’t the only team to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history.

▪ No. 15 seed California Baptist punched its ticket with a comeback victory over Stephen F. Austin in the WAC Tournament championship. For their feat, the Lancers were rewarded with No. 2 UCLA on Saturday night.

▪ No. 16 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi claimed the Southland Conference’s auto-bid with a big win over Lamar in the championship game. The Islanders will face No. 1 Southern Cal on Saturday afternoon.

▪ No. 16 Presbyterian, which transitioned to Division I in 2007, earned its first appearance in the D-I NCAA Tournament by defeating Radford to be the Big South’s qualifier. The Blue Hose will battle fellow 16-seed Sacred Heart in one of Wednesday’s First Four matchups.

5. AD déjà vu. Funnily enough, the men’s field mirrors the women’s in just one first-round matchup — Nebraska and Texas A&M will battle it out in both tournaments. These opening draws arrived soon after former Nebraska athletic director Trev Alberts departed Lincoln for the same job at Texas A&M. Alberts shared his reaction in a pair of social media posts, first congratulating Nebraska men’s basketball coach Fred Hoiberg and women’s basketball coach Amy Williams: “Well this will be fun … (grinning face with sweat emoji) Congratulations Coach Hoiberg and Coach Williams!” Alberts then issued a similar message to Texas A&M women’s basketball coach Joni Taylor and men’s basketball coach Buzz Williams: “You can’t make this up! Congratulations to Coach Taylor and Coach Williams.”