Why is the US Postal Service's role in November's election under scrutiny?

The United States Postal Service has emerged as a central issue in November’s hotly contested election where Democrat Joe Biden is seeking to prevent Republican Donald Trump from winning a second term. Here is why:

Why is there so much attention around the USPS and America’s 2020 election?

Related: Obama denounces Trump bid to deter voters with attack on post office

An unprecedented number of Americans are expected to vote by mail this year because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Over the last few months, states across the US have seen record numbers of Americans request ballots and submit votes by mail in primary and other elections. Mail-in ballots may account for 50% of all of the votes cast this fall, according to an estimate by Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who closely tracks voter turnout. That would be a huge increase from 2016 and 2018, when about a quarter of votes came through the mail.

That surge means the USPS is going to play a much bigger role in facilitating an American presidential election than ever before. The agency will be responsible for transporting ballots between election officials and voters. Many states require ballots to arrive at election offices by the close of the polls on election day. Others allow ballot postmarked on or before election that arrive within a specified period. There’s concern over whether the USPS, which is already facing a severe financial crisis, will be able get ballots to voters and return them to election offices in time to have them counted.

So what exactly is Trump doing to the USPS?

Over the last few months there have been reports of severe mail delays across the US. In Philadelphia, for example, some residents told the Philadelphia Inquirer they had gone weeks without receiving mail. Concerns over those delays were heightened in early June when Louis DeJoy, a major Republican donor and Trump ally, took over as postmaster general, the top role at the USPS.

In July, the Washington Post and other news organizations reported the agency was banning overtime and instructing postal workers to leave the mail behind if it delayed them on their routes. There are also reports of the USPS removing mail sorting machines from facilities, which could lead to a further slowdown.

Critics suggest Trump and DeJoy are deliberately slowing the mail to make it more difficult to vote by mail. DeJoy has strongly denied any political interference. But on Thursday, Trump openly admitted he was blocking $25bn in proposed aid to the post office because he wanted to make it harder to vote by mail.

Why is Trump doing this?

The president is trailing Joe Biden in the polls and his focus on the USPS is widely seen as an attempt to sow chaos and to make it less likely people will have their votes counted in November. Vote-by-mail does not benefit one party over the other, but Trump has shown an instinctive belief that the fewer people who vote, the better his re-election chances will be.

One of the top reasons ballots go uncounted is because they arrive at election offices past the deadline to be counted. Minorities, young people, and first-time voters are all disproportionately more likely to have their votes rejected.

Will the USPS be able to survive Trump’s attacks for November?

The post office says it has the capacity to deliver ballots this fall and says it will do so. The agency has longstanding guidance that voters should put their ballots in the mail before election day in order to have the best chance of having them counted. But many states allow voters to request a ballot within the seven days before an election, something USPS warned many states in recent weeks could mean voters not having their ballots counted.

Does a mail-in vote have to be returned by the USPS?

Many election officials are exploring setting up official drop boxes around their jurisdictions so that voters can return their ballots without having to return them in the mail. But in Pennsylvania the Trump campaign sued to block the use of drop boxes for the election, baselessly saying they will facilitate fraud.

What can I do to help ensure there isn’t a USPS crisis in November?

Experts are encouraging Americans to submit their requests for their November ballots now so that postal officials are less overwhelmed later this year and there isn’t a crunch to get them back in time. Voters should also look up the deadline for requesting and submitting an absentee ballot so they can do so well in advance of November.