Why sky is not (totally) falling and why Dolphins’ rebuild cannot yet be deemed a failure

Monday felt like a punch to the gut, like being on the wrong end of a jarring hit from Christian Wilkins or a punishing pancake block from Robert Hunt and then watching the Brinks Truck drive around to the side entrance to pick up both of them before you even know what hit you.

Select any devastating word that starts with D to describe how the Dolphins’ defense was decimated the past two weeks: Depressing, distressing, demoralizing.

But here’s what it was not, at least in our view: a referendum on the rebuild. Nor was it the close of the Dolphins’ window to compete for something meaningful.

Here’s why: Buffalo has moved on from a bunch of good players in recent days; the Jets showed last year that they’re probably not nearly good enough even with a healthy Aaron Rodgers; and the Patriots are immersed in a rebuild. So the AFC East remains for the taking every bit as much as it did a few weeks ago.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins still have six very good players on offense (Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane and Terron Armstead), capable offensive line starters in Aaron Brewer and Austin Jackson, a tight end (Jonnu Smith) who led all NFL players at his position in average yards after contact the past three years and a reliable tight end tag-team partner in Durham Smythe.

On defense, they still have high-end players in Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb (both coming off injuries), an elite cornerback in Jalen Ramsey, a safety with Pro Bowl skills in Jevon Holland, a reliable, productive tackle in Zach Sieler and two high-energy, tackle machines at inside linebacker in David Long Jr. and Jordyn Brooks, who’s likely an upgrade over Jerome Baker.

They also have, at the moment, $63 million in 2025 cap space and the likelihood of having five draft picks in the first three rounds of that April 2025 Draft — their own first-, second- and third-round choices and potential third-round compensatory picks for losing Wilkins and Hunt.

While extensions for Tagovailoa and potential extensions for Waddle, Phillips and Holland will consume a large chunk of that $63 million, remember that the second year on Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts’ new deal had a $21.7 million cap hit. So Year 2 of a proposed Tagovailoa deal shouldn’t be cap-crippling.

And more than the current $63 million in 2025 space can be created; keep in mind that not a single player on the team is currently owed any guaranteed money past 2024, per overthecap.com. (We await the details on the Brooks contract.)

And more cap space can be saved by cutting players or extending Tyreek Hill at that time.

(For example, Miami chops off $2 million in 2025 space by replacing Jake Bailey with a rookie punter in a year.)

So Miami will have flexibility to add talent next spring, more so than this offseason.

And because there’s decent depth at cornerback, safety and defensive tackle in this free agent class, the Dolphins should be able to find competent replacements for Wilkins and Howard.

Remember: Solid starters likely will become available in post-draft cuts, and Miami will be in ideal position to sign most anyone they like, because the $18.5 million in cap space from the release of Xavien Howard becomes available after June 1.

As much as Wilkins and Hunt will be missed, keep this in mind: The combined 2025 cap numbers for Wilkins (with the Raiders) and Hunt (with the Panthers) are $56 million. That would have left Miami with practically no cap space next offseason, with Tagovailoa, Phillips, Waddle and Holland not even accounted for on their books for 2025.

So losing homegrown talent was painful but probably unavoidable if you want to retain the current core.

Now let’s be clear on two things:

1). I don’t agree with declining to match Minnesota’s two-year, $20 million offer for Andrew Van Ginkel and instead signing aging Shaq Barrett. Van Ginkel is three years younger and was the better player in every measurable metric last season.

2). I would have gambled on Wilkins by placing the $20.9 million non-exclusive franchise tag on him; an interested team would have had to give Miami a pair of first-round picks to sign Wilkins if the Dolphins didn’t match the offer. That might have had the best potential result for Miami, but it also could have left the Dolphins in a bigger cap crunch this offseason. So I understand why the Dolphins bypassed that option.

The key will be finding one or two skilled defensive tackles who can provide stout run defense alongside Sieler and the inside linebackers; Miami allowed just 3.8 yards per carry last season, which tied for third in the league.

If the Dolphins can replace Wilkins with effective, reasonably-priced run stuffers, they can easily survive his loss.

Let’s not overstate the personnel losses in totality. Xavien Howard, while still effective, was no longer the All-Pro cornerback of yesteryear, and injuries were an issue the past two seasons.

Baker was replaced by a somewhat better player in Brooks.

Former Pro Bowl safety Jordan Poyer is a skilled and pedigreed replacement for DeShon Elliott (who remains unsigned) and Denver-bound Brandon Jones.

And no guard is going to have a dramatic impact on wins and losses, and that takes nothing away from Hunt, the Dolphins’ best day two offensive line draft selection this century.

Let’s be real about this, too: Even with Wilkins, Hunt, Baker and Howard, there was no indication that this team — as currently composed -- was good enough to beat the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs.

So if you were going to judge this rebuild by whether they make a Super Bowl, then the blame lies primarily with not finding a generational quarterback. But don’t get me started on how they mishandled the 2019 tank.

Disappointment over this week’s handful of key departures is justified, but to say this proves the rebuild has failed (two years into the “win now” era) feels premature and melodramatic, because so many key Dolphins are still in their prime — from Hill to Chubb to Phillips to the Long/Brooks inside linebacker tandem to Tagovailoa.

Let’s see how general manager Chris Grier fills the roster’s deficiencies over the next five months and what the Dolphins can do when their draft war chest is replenished in 13 months and when more cap flexibility arrives next March.

If we’re in this same position in 25 months, without a division title or playoff win, then it would be an appropriate time for grand pronouncements of failure. If they unravel and have a losing record next season, they’ll deserve blame.

It’s difficult to ask for patience from the only NFL fan base that hasn’t experienced a playoff win in 23 years. But the fact they were a playoff team the past two years should buy them a bit more time to see this process through.

For now, take them at what they are - a playoff contender facing temporary cap challenges but with a solid enough core to remain a good, relevant and entertaining team for several years, provided they make mostly right decisions in free agency and the draft.

And if they don’t make enough right decisions in the next year or two, then judging this Dolphins ‘rebuild’ through a harsh prism will be thoroughly justified.