Why Russia is trying to blame Ukraine for Crocus City Hall attack: expert opinion

Russia may resort to escalating the intensity of the war
Russia may resort to escalating the intensity of the war
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Russia wants to prove Ukraine's involvement in the terrorist attack in Krasnogorsk, seeking to use it as a pretext for escalating the war and repressions in Russia itself, political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko told NV in an interview published on March 24.

The risk of escalation of the war after the terrorist attack in the suburbs of Moscow is very high, and this indicates, if not direct, then indirect involvement of Russian special services in this act, Fesenko said.

Read also: Moscow mass shooters claimed to be Tajik nationals and ISIS fighters

The Kremlin wants to use this terrorist attack against Ukraine, claiming that it took part in the preparation of the massacre in Crocus City Hall. In this way, the enemy seeks to discredit Ukraine in the eyes of the international community, to ensure that the supply of weapons to Kyiv is stopped, or that partners set strict limits for Ukraine regarding strikes on Russian territory, the political analyst adds.

"And finally, what is feared both in Ukraine and abroad is that Russia can use this terrorist attack and the alleged involvement of Ukraine as a pretext for further escalation of the war," said Fesenko.

"If the version is promoted that Ukraine is the alleged instigator of this terrorist attack, although the perpetrators, as we see, are different, it can be used as a pretext for a new mobilization in Russia and further intensification of the war against Ukraine," the expert said.

"Now, according to classical estimates, there is a war of medium intensity," Fesenko stated.

Read also: ISIS behind Crocus City Hall shooting in Moscow - ISW

"According to various estimates, about half a million Russians are fighting in Ukraine. Or maybe a million are fighting. And while the war is currently focused on the eastern and southern fronts, further escalation could mean, among other things, a new attempt by Russia to attack us from the north."

"There is such a risk, too," said the political scientist.

"I would not say that they have already used everything to the maximum. So, unfortunately, Russia still has the capabilities, reserves, and resources to escalate the war."

The enemy may also resort to toughening the repressive regime in Russia itself and imposing even stricter restrictions, for example, in the information sphere.

"With a very high probability, this will be used to increase repression in Russia itself," Fesenko said.

"It happened during the Chechen war. Propagandists will also use this to pump up support for the government. But the main risk, of course, is the risk of escalation of the war. I think that now, through various channels, both Americans and Europeans are warning Putin to refrain from doing so."

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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine