Why the Missouri Tigers seem poised to stick with basketball coach Dennis Gates

Dennis Gates isn’t hiding, but he is choosing to look forward.

“You know, the season hasn’t gone how I’ve personally wanted it to go,” the University of Missouri men’s basketball coach said Monday. “But the season’s not over. It’s a new season.”

Gates was talking about the win-or-go-home SEC Tournament, which MU enters as the No. 14 seed. The Tigers face 11th-seeded Georgia on Wednesday evening in Nashville.

But what about when the postseason ends? All regular-season clues point toward an early curtain call for the Tigers in Tennessee — so what happens after that?

A bad season — so bad that it tied a century-old record — has changed the equation somewhat. Yes, Gates led the Tigers to a thrilling 2022-23 season and some historic recruiting wins. He was even rewarded with an extended contract for his efforts.

But MU’s 0-18 mark in conference play this year is cause to at least consider questions about the overall direction of the program, and its coach.

Here are three reasons, even amid a historically bleak campaign, that Missouri is likely to stick with Gates as its coach beyond this season:

Missouri basketball coach Dennis Gates’ buyout

On March 10, 2023, Dennis Gates was awarded a contract extension shortly after defeating Tennessee in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals.

As of Monday, March 11, 2024, after an 0-18 SEC campaign and with the Tigers preparing for a first-round game in the conference tournament, Dennis Gates’ buyout stands at approximately $21.5 million.

Gates is currently signed through the 2028-29 season. He is due to earn $4 million this year, with annual increases of $100,000 through the end of his deal, which maxes out at $4.5 million in 2028-29.

In the event Gates is fired without cause, Missouri owes him the remaining value of his contract. If that’s the route MU chooses to go once this season ends, that buyout would amount to $20 million.

Of course, that isn’t an impenetrable safety net. Colleges around the nation have shown an increased willingness to trigger exorbitant buyouts.

But just one year after extending Gates, this is likely to be the one of the main discussions for an athletic department that’s also still looking for an athletic director to succeed Desireé Reed-Francois.

Mizzou recruiting at all-time high

While Missouri’s present looked grim as the Tigers’ losing streak hit 18 games, the future looked several shades brighter.

Four-star shooting guard and MU signee Annor Boateng was the championship MVP as Little Rock Central won the Arkansas Class 6A title. Four-star small forward and Missouri signee Marcus Allen had seven points and eight rebounds as Miami Norland won the Florida Class 5A high school state championship.

Under Gates, recruiting is at an all-time high for Missouri basketball.

Mizzou currently boasts the country’s No. 4-ranked recruiting class for the 2024-25 season, according to 247Sports’ composite rankings. Only Duke, Kentucky and Rutgers rank higher. In the Class of 2025, the Tigers secured the commitment of five-star Toltan point guard Aaron Rowe — 247Sports’ 25th-ranked player nationally in his class.

That’s as good for MU as it’s been in the era of recruiting rankings.

In addition to Boateng and Allen in the Class of 2024, Missouri will add four-star centers Peyton Marshall and Trent Burns and three-star point guard T.O. Barrett. All five are ranked among the top 150 prospects in the country, per 247Sports’ rankings.

Gates will, in all likelihood, get a chance to work with his top-ranked signees. They’ll join current freshmen Anthony Robinson II, Trent Pierce and Jordan Butler in Columbia as Gates’ roster begins to fit his vision.

Success on the recruiting trail is one of the reasons that football coach Eli Drinkwitz’s job security never came under any serious scrutiny despite the fact MU finished .500 or worse for three straight seasons. The Tigers, and Drinkwitz’s consistently top 25-ranked signing classes, went 11-2 and won the Cotton Bowl this past season.

MU hoops was soaring not so long ago

Dennis Gates has shown what it looks like when it’s working — and recently.

His year one turnaround in Columbia defied all preseason expectations. Gates’ Tigers went 25-10, reached their first SEC Tournament semifinal and won an NCAA Tournament game for the first time in a decade.

Kobe Brown was developed into a first-round NBA Draft pick. D’Moi Hodge, similarly, advanced under Gates’ tutelage and signed a two-way contract to the league.

The Tigers had been picked to finish 11th in the conference in 2022-23 — Gates’ first season in Columbia. His contract extension helped stave off potential poachers.

Now, year three is likely pivotal to Gates’ future, or at the very least in shaping popular opinion among the Missouri fanbase. The Tigers’ incoming talent will need to hit the ground running. The transfer portal, which opens Sunday and remains open until May 1, will be vital in filling out next season’s roster.

If 2023-24 truly was a freak occurrence caused by an unfortunate amalgamation of roster turnover, portal misses and injury woes, that’ll begin to show in November.

The Star has partnered with the Columbia Daily Tribune for coverage of Missouri Tigers athletics.