Here’s why Mecklenburg’s Cotham, Leake risk losing ‘staying power’ in Democratic primary

A pair of veteran Mecklenburg County commissioners are watching institutional support shift toward their challengers this election cycle — putting them at risk of a rare upset.

Five candidates, including three incumbents, are running for three at-large Democratic nominations on the Board of Commissioners in the March 5 primary. But some influential groups have sided with one of the challengers, Yvette Townsend-Ingram, over one of the incumbents, Pat Cotham.

Cotham, who was the top vote-getter in the last at-large race, is the mother of state Rep. Tricia Cotham, who angered many in the Democratic establishment when she switched parties in 2023. The elder Cotham also faces her own questions about her political preferences.

At the district-level, Charles Osborne picked up notable endorsements and donations in his quest to unseat longtime District 2 Commissioner Vilma Leake. Leake first won her seat in 2008 and served 11 years on the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Board of Education before that. She has also faced criticism for off-color remarks on topics including education.

“This election is going to come down to challenging the staying power, once again, of the incumbents,” political strategist Bryan Holladay said.

The winner in District 2’s primary will face Republican Angela White Edwards in November’s general election, and the top three finishers in the at-large primary will win seats because there’s no competition from other parties.

Who’s winning endorsement races?

Pat Cotham and Leake missed out on endorsements this election cycle from the influential Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg. The group instead backed Osborne in the District 2 race and Townsend-Ingram in the at-large race alongside incumbents Leigh Altman and Arthur Griffin.

Mecklenburg Democrats’ African American Caucus also endorsed Townsend-Ingram, Altman and Griffin over Pat Cotham. The group did not announce endorsements in district races.

Another branch of the county’s Democratic Party, the LGBTQ+ Democrats of Mecklenburg County, put Townsend-Ingram and Osborne higher than Pat Cotham and Leake in their candidate rankings. Townsend-Ingram was one of six commission candidates, and the only challenger, to receive the group’s highest ranking of “excellent,” which results in public support on social media and at the polls.

Osborne received the second-highest ranking, “sufficient.” Pat Cotham and Leake were ranked “insufficient” this election cycle.

“In addition to evaluating candidates’ responses to our questionnaires, we scrutinize their voting records, policy initiatives and community engagement. It’s important to note that while we looked at the full history of comments, we weighed your most recent term and work heavily,” said caucus President Laurel Grauer at an event announcing the endorsements.

Townsend-Ingram said she “can’t even put into words” what the support of an influential political group like the LGBTQ+ Dems could mean for her campaign.

“This has been a hard journey,” she said.

Pat Cotham said she aims to be authentic when filling out surveys for groups that give endorsements and that she has a strong base of support among other groups that don’t make formal endorsements.

“I just do my job,” she said. “I don’t sit around and worry about endorsements.”

Will Tricia Cotham hurt mother’s election chances?

Holladay noted resentment against Tricia Cotham among Democrats could decrease support for her mother.

“It’s not surprising that Tricia Cotham’s move to the Republican Party is creating squabbles with inside the Democratic Party. And so I think you’re seeing the ripple effects of that situation with Pat,” he said.

Asked whether she thinks her daughter’s decision is affecting her campaign, Cotham said she’s learned across years of races that support ebbs and flows.

“I’ve been through a lot of elections, and I’ve always found it to be up and down,” she said.

It’s not just the Cotham name: A 2022 opinion piece published by Queen City Nerve from then-CMS Board member Jennifer De La Jara was headlined “Pat Cotham Is a Republican and It’s Time Democrats Admit It.”

“We must also acknowledge that there are also subcategories of Democrats who do the work of the Republican Party while keeping a ‘D’ beside their name. Nationally, I would place Joe Manchin in this subcategory. Here in Mecklenburg County, we have our own version of this type of Democrat; her name is Pat Cotham,” De La Jara wrote.

Commissioner Cotham told the Observer after her daughter’s party switch that she’s seen both the Democratic and Republican parties become more “toxic and vicious” toward each other.

“That wasn’t the Democratic Party that (Tricia) was involved in when she was younger,” she said. “It’s not the Democratic Party I grew up in.”

Vilma Leake’s District 2 chances

In the District 2 race, Leake said she “didn’t go after any endorsements.”

“I want them to see the work I’ve already done,” she said of her campaign’s approach to this election. Leake added that she has no thoughts on Osborne picking up endorsements in his run against her.

“Good for him,” she said.

Holladay said longtime incumbents such as Leake can make interesting opponents for challengers because varied public opinion can build up over time.

“People have lots of opinions for you, positive and negative,” he said.

Leake’s tenure in public office has included controversial moments. She was admonished in 2022 for saying in response to an update on student achievement in CMS that local parents “ought to take out a warrant and have every educator arrested and put in jail for not seeing that their children are not given a quality education, college ready.”

Earlier that year, she was accused of repeatedly calling a judge to discuss a sensitive Juvenile Court case involving a constituent, drawing a letter from a state attorney asking her to stop.

Who’s raising more money?

On the fundraising front, Osborne has reported a couple of notable donations: $250 each from sitting commissioners George Dunlap and Laura Meier.

Dunlap, who represents District 3 and chairs the county commission, told The Charlotte Observer he is a longtime friend of Osborne’s father and has known Osborne since he was a child.

“That is what you do for someone you respect,” he said of his decision to donate to Osborne’s campaign. “It was meant to show support for his campaign.”

Meier said she was moved to support Osborne because she thinks “it’s time for a change in District 2.”

“I think it just is self explanatory that I support him … I think he would do a phenomenal job. He’s young and sharp, and he wants to work for the people of District 2. And I trust that he will,” said Meier, who represents District 5.

Asked about her colleagues donating to her opponent, Leake told the Observer “it’s their money, and they can do what they want with it.”

Here’s how their campaigns stack up:

▪ Leake reported $4,546.28 in donations in her latest campaign finance report, which covered the start of 2024 through mid-February. Her report listed $5,413.63 in expenses and $3,543.38 in cash on hand at the end of the filing period.

▪ In his most recent report available, Osborne reported $9,019.74 in donations and $3,394 in expenses, leaving his campaign with $7,481.11 in cash on hand in mid-February.

▪ In the at-large race, Pat Cotham trailed fellow incumbents Altman and Griffin in cash on hand at the end of the latest filing period, with $3,197.44 cash on hand to their $15,042.69 and $9,047.96, respectively.

▪ Townsend-Ingram’s first quarter report was not publicly available as of Wednesday afternoon, but her campaign reported $1,413.60 in cash on hand at the end of the previous filing period, which ended Dec. 31.

Will Cotham, Leake lose on Election Day?

Holladay said that while “there’s definitely a lot of inside baseball” in this election, he sees Pat Cotham’s and Leake’s challengers as potentially “formidable.”

“This is where you see these endorsements begin to matter to a degree because people want to educate themselves on down-ballot races,” he said.

Still, he added, it remains difficult to unseat a long-standing representative.

“Typically in Charlotte, we really like our incumbents. And so it is always surprising when you see in a local election an incumbent lose,” he said.

Both Pat Cotham and Leake told the Observer their final message to voters ahead of the primary is to turn out and vote.

“I feel great. I just pray that my people will get to the polls,” Leake said.

What to know about Mecklenburg County Commission primary

A total of nine candidates are running for county commission in the Democratic primary. There are no Republican primaries in 2024 for county commission.

District 1 Commissioner Elaine Powell, Meier and District 6 Commissioner Susan Rodriguez-McDowell are unopposed in the Democratic primary but will face Republican challengers in November’s general election. Vice Chairman Mark Jerrell, who represents District 4, is unopposed in the Democratic primary and general election.

Early voting for the primaries began Feb. 15 and runs through March 1, with 22 early voting sites spread throughout the county. Primary Election Day is March 5, and polling places will be open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.

Registered Democrats and unaffiliated voters who did not vote in another political party’s primary are eligible to vote in the Democratic primary.

General Election Day is Nov. 5.

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