Why I'm not picking SEC's Nico Iamaleava or Carson Beck to win Heisman Trophy | Toppmeyer

Most of the Heisman Trophy frontrunners are SEC quarterbacks.

Of the players with top-eight odds to win college football's top award, six are names you'll recognize from the SEC: Carson Beck (Georgia) is the odds-on favorite, followed by Quinn Ewers (Texas). Also in the top eight are Nico Iamaleava (Tennessee,) Jalen Milroe (Alabama), Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) and Garrett Nussmeier (LSU).

And if someone handed me $100 and told me I had to bet on the Heisman winner, I wouldn't wager on any of those SEC guys. I'd back Dillon Gabriel. Oregon's quarterback joins Ohio State quarterback Will Howard as the only players with top-eight odds not from the SEC.

Why do I lean Gabriel? It's not that I think those SEC quarterbacks will have bad seasons. In fact, I could see either Beck or Ewers starring for the team that wins the national championship. The other four SEC quarterbacks on the list also should have good seasons for teams in playoff contention.

So, why Gabriel? He's got four factors going for him.

∎ He'll have great stats.

∎ Oregon should have team success.

∎ He'll have a good narrative.

∎ He can attract votes from a broad region.

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Let's unpack this:

Stats: Oregon's offense positions quarterbacks to succeed. Last year, Bo Nix led the nation in passing touchdowns and ranked second in passing yards. Gabriel will have the ability and opportunity to post similar numbers – and he'll do so in the brighter spotlight of the Big Ten after Nix played in the Pac-12.

Team success: Team success influences this individual award. You're not going to win the Heisman nowadays playing for a 7-5 team. In the expanded playoff era, I think it will be difficult to win the Heisman without being on a playoff qualifier. The Ducks are armed to make the playoffs and even contend for a national championship. They'll play showcase games against Ohio State and Michigan. That offers Gabriel a big stage to impress voters.

Narrative: Having a good story helps a candidate. Gabriel's got the narrative. The Ducks are a strong candidate to reach the Big Ten Championship game and qualify for the playoff in their Big Ten debut. That makes for a good Heisman campaign. Plus, Gabriel is something of a poster child for the modern quarterback. A sixth-year senior, he's playing for his third program. Voters already should be plenty familiar with Gabriel after he helped Oklahoma upset Texas last season.

Big voting bloc: Gabriel previously played at UCF and OU. Now he's onto his third time zone. He's got broad name recognition, and that will only grow this season. The Big Ten extends from coast to coast, exposing Gabriel to voters from Los Angeles to Maryland. While the SEC stars split votes on Southern ballots, Gabriel can gobble up votes from everywhere from California to Michigan to Ohio to New York.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer. Also, check out his podcast, SEC Football Unfiltered.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Heisman Trophy odds: Pick Dillon Gabriel over Carson Beck, Nico Iamaleava