Why the good news about the plummeting murder rate is actually bad news

EJ Montini, Arizona Republic
·3 min read
1

I have good news and I have bad news.

First, the bad news, which is … good news does not matter.

A reporter learns fairly early in a career that readers and viewers almost always say that want more “good news” stories.

But they’re lying. Not on purpose, of course.

People who say they’d like more “good news” stories genuinely mean it. It’s just that they pay a LOT more attention to the bad stuff.

It’s natural, I suppose.

Why we ignore good news, even on crime

There were fewer scenes like this in Phoenix and 100 other cities last year. And the trend is continuing.
There were fewer scenes like this in Phoenix and 100 other cities last year. And the trend is continuing.

During an election year it becomes even more difficult to present good news, because one side will herald anything good as its accomplishment and the other side will call it a political stunt or a ploy or “fake news,” even if it’s very real.

Because of this, good news in an election year gets even less attention than it does at other times. Still, I’ll give it a try.

Just this week, the Wall Street Journal, working with crime statistics gathered by the FBI wrote about how, nationwide, homicides dropped roughly 20% in more than 100 U.S. cities in 2023, and that steep downward trend is continuing in 2024.

Good news, right?

Arizona pays crime victims: But not nearly enough

The Journal’s article also said the decrease in Phoenix was 38%.

How great is that?

The reasons for the drop in homicides are difficult to pin down because there are many factors.

But politics is involved, which means that the people currently in office will say their policies are a big reason, while people out of office will say the positive trend is a result of policies they put into place earlier and are now reaping rewards.

Republicans, Democrats don't want this out

It gets even dicier than that given the current political situation.

Republicans are on the ropes over support for a brutally arcane abortion policy in Arizona, and they also are trying to distract from the criminal trial of Donald Trump.

Politically, for them, it would have been helpful if the statistics has been just the opposite. If homicides had gone up, it would have been a useful tool for bashing Democrats in order to take some of the heat off Trump.

Democrats, on the other hand, could use the positive stats to bolster policies fostered by the current administration, but they’re being fairly quiet about them because they really want to keep the spotlight on the abortion issue and Trump’s trial.

So, the fact that homicides are way down isn’t getting a whole lot of attention.

Which is sad. Because this is good news.

At the very least it is evidence that even in our divided nation, where we are constantly at cross purposes, at least we are not murdering one another … as much.

Would it kill us to relax and be happy about that?

(Although, if if did kill us the story would get a lot more coverage.)

Reach Montini at ed.montini@arizonarepublic.com.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Murder rate is plunging. But that good news is really bad news