Where the ‘uncommitted’ protest vote could jolt Biden

The “uncommitted” protest vote against President Joe Biden is gaining steam.

But it’s also running out of opportunities.

Tuesday’s primary in Washington state could be the last strong chance for voters to signal their opposition to Biden’s policies in the Middle East after a surge in “uncommitted” votes last week led to its highest vote shares of the 2024 Democratic primary: 19 percent in Minnesota and 29 percent in Hawaii. Washington’s liberal voters could well deliver another eye-popping figure.

After that, however, the chances for “uncommitted” voters to send a message to Biden and the Democratic Party are few and far between.

Of the remaining presidential nominating contests after this week, only about 10 of them offer an “uncommitted” or similar ballot line option — and none is in a state with either a sizable Muslim or Arab American population like Minnesota or Michigan or a large bloc of very liberal voters, like Washington state. Instead, they’re in states like Kansas, Missouri and Connecticut — where Democrats aren’t as progressive or are generally friendlier to the establishment.

Democratic voters in states without “uncommitted” will still have some ways to mark their discontent. They can vote for other candidates such as self-help author Marianne Williamson. And they can choose to stay home and not participate in the primary altogether.

But neither low turnout nor voting for Williamson would be as public and clear a rebuke as the “uncommitted” votes so far. Here’s what to watch over the rest of the calendar, and where the protest vote could leave a mark as Biden hopes to unite the party for a difficult rematch with former President Donald Trump.

March 12: Washington state

Of the three states holding presidential primaries on Tuesday — Georgia, Mississippi and Washington state — Washington is the only one with an “uncommitted” option.

The ingredients are there for a strong “uncommitted” vote. Its voters are demonstrably the most liberal of the upcoming states. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) received 37 percent of the vote there in the 2020 Democratic primary, just one percentage point less than Biden. Sanders only earned a larger percentage of the vote in just three states with government-run primaries in 2020: Vermont (51 percent), Idaho (42 percent) and Colorado (37 percent).

Washington voters also have a history of deviating from the establishment. They’ve gone for third-party or independent candidates by an average of 6.9 percent over the past two general elections — just six states have a greater percentage.

If a strong "uncommitted" vote materializes, it likely won’t just be in the city of Seattle, but also in places like Whitman County in Eastern Washington, which is home to Washington State University and was Sanders’ second-best county in the 2020 primary.

But we may not know how big the tally will be right away. Washington state runs all-mail elections that take about a week to count — only about half the vote had been tallied at the end of election night in 2022 — and organizers say they expect the “uncommitted” vote to grow after Tuesday. But that would run counter to recent elections in Washington, which have actually trended a little redder as more ballots were tallied, a reversal of the “blue shift” that had existed previously.

“Uncommitted” is also an option in the Democrats Abroad primary — a contest for U.S. citizens living outside of the United States who are registered with the Democratic Party — but results won’t be made public until March 25.

March 19: Kansas

Kansas has a “none of the names shown” option on the ballot next Tuesday, but the state’s Democratic electorate is a lot more moderate and less diverse than the places in which “uncommitted” has fared well so far. So activists in other states are searching for other ways to register Democratic voters’ disapproval of Biden’s support for Israel.

In Arizona, the national Vote for Ceasefire campaign is urging voters to choose Williamson, who suspended her campaign after Nevada but recently reactivated it. Williamson, who has advocated for creating a peace department in her current and previous campaigns, has called for a cease-fire in the Middle East.

It’s not clear whether voters inclined to protest Biden's Israel stance will follow organizers’ lead and vote for Williamson, who is one of a half-dozen other Democrats on the Arizona ballot. Organizers pointed to last week’s primary in Virginia, where Williamson received 8 percent of the vote, though it’s not clear how much of that was motivated by this particular issue.

Other states voting on March 19 are Florida, Illinois and Ohio. But Florida doesn’t have a Democratic primary after the party put only Biden on the ballot, and Williamson isn’t even on the ballot in Ohio.

March 23: Missouri

Missouri’s primary next week is run by the state party, and many are expecting lower turnout than a state-run election.

But what this means for the "uncommitted" vote is unclear. Any voter can request a mail ballot from the state party — as long as they’re not registered to vote as a Republican. And there is some in-person voting, at about 100 sites throughout the state open next Saturday morning from 8 a.m. until noon Central Time.

In last week’s Hawaii caucuses — where “uncommitted” received 29 percent of the vote — fewer than 1,600 voters participated, suggesting that protest voters may be more motivated than others to show up for more insular events. But Missouri also isn’t Hawaii in terms of ideology, so don’t expect another nearly 30 percent showing for “uncommitted” there.

April: Connecticut, Rhode Island, Wyoming

Of the eight states holding primaries or caucuses in April — including Delaware, which like Florida has canceled its Democratic primary — only three have an “uncommitted” option.

Connecticut and Rhode Island on April 2 could bear watching if the movement continues to gain momentum into next month. But the Democratic parties in both states tend to be fairly establishment-friendly.

“Uncommitted” isn’t an option in New York or Wisconsin, where it otherwise wouldn’t be hard to see it doing well, especially in communities with significant Muslim populations or in college towns, like Madison.

Wyoming does have an independent streak, though the number of Democrats who reside there is minuscule: It’s not only the nation’s smallest state by population, it’s also one of its most Republican.

May: Maryland, Kentucky

Only two of the seven states with May primaries have “uncommitted.” If organizers continue their efforts into May, Maryland would be an interesting test: a majority-nonwhite primary electorate outside of the Southeast, where Biden has been strongest since 2020. In Kentucky, ancestrally registered Democrats who’ve long voted Republican in federal races could use the primary to express displeasure with Biden — though the Middle East conflict may not be top of mind for them.

Oregon, which holds a May 21 primary, has not historically had an “uncommitted” ballot line but would have been the kind of place where it could have done well: western, with pockets of very liberal and anti-establishment voters. 

June: Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico

If the "uncommitted" campaign is still going into the final primaries in early June, activists will have three more opportunities to send a message.

“Uncommitted” has historically been on the ballot in three of the five places (including the District of Columbia) holding June 4 primaries, though these ballots aren’t fully set yet. Montana (where “no preference” is on the ballot) and New Mexico have historically high rates of third-party voting.

New Jersey also has “uncommitted.” But its primaries are so top-down that Rep. Andy Kim, who is running for Senate, is suing to change the design of the ballot — and Democrats are openly talking about reforming the process in future years.