Where will Kentucky go in the NCAA Tournament? A bracketology check after some big upsets.
Where will the Kentucky Wildcats end up in the NCAA Tournament?
Going into their SEC Tournament opener Friday night against Texas A&M, the No. 9-ranked Cats were projected as a 3 seed by just about every major college basketball bracketologist, but UK’s stock has been rising in recent weeks, and continuing that momentum could shoot John Calipari’s team even higher up the mock seed lists.
Before Thursday’s games, Kentucky was the consensus No. 12 overall team — making the Cats the final 3 seed on the board — according to Bracket Matrix. But two teams just ahead of UK — Creighton and Duke — suffered upset losses in their league quarterfinals. The other team on the 3 line (Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears) defeated Cincinnati late Thursday to advance to the Big 12 semifinals.
A win over Texas A&M — a Quad 1 opponent going into the game — would probably be enough to cement Kentucky into a spot on the 3 seed line, unless the NCAA Tournament selection committee, which has been going over the bracket all week in Indianapolis, has a much different opinion of this Wildcats team than the most experienced bracketologists.
Here’s a look at some top projections going into Friday night:
▪ ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has UK as the No. 10 overall team and a 3 seed in the Midwest Region, with the first week of games in Pittsburgh and the regional in Detroit. Purdue and Marquette are the 1-2 seeds there, with Kansas as a 4 seed.
▪ The Bracketville blog — operated by longtime bracketologist Dave Ommen — has Kentucky as the No. 11 overall team and a 3 seed in his seed list that was updated Friday morning. The Wildcats are ahead of Duke, which lost to N.C. State on Thursday night, but still behind No. 8 Creighton, No. 9 Baylor and No. 10 Iowa State. That order of teams would also send UK to Pittsburgh for the opening week of the tournament.
▪ The latest projections from CBS Sports, USA Today and Fox Sports also have Kentucky as a 3 seed.
Baylor and Iowa State were opponents in the Big 12 semifinals late Friday night. A loss by either team there was unlikely to do much damage to their NCAA Tournament seeding. Marquette, rated at No. 7 on the boards of both Lunardi and Ommen, drew Providence in the Big East semifinals Friday night. A loss there — especially if star player Tyler Kolek remains sidelined — probably wouldn’t drop Marquette much, if at all. Kolek, the reigning Big East player of the year, has been out with an injury but is expected to be ready to play in next week’s NCAA Tournament.
Marquette’s results are important to Kentucky, because the Cats would need to jump the Golden Eagles on the seed list to secure one of the two first-week spots in Indianapolis. (Purdue will definitely get one of those spots.)
If UK doesn’t end up ahead of Marquette, a first-week trip to Pittsburgh — the hometown of Calipari — appears to be the most likely destination at this point. Pittsburgh is the second-closest first-week location to Lexington, and the Cats are currently in a good spot to end up there.
Due to the uncertainty of where it might fall on the overall seed line, projecting which region Kentucky ends up in will be a tall task up until the bracket is revealed. Moving UK up or down even one spot on a seed list could change that projection.
Can Kentucky be a 2 seed?
A loss to Texas A&M on Friday night could push Kentucky back to a 4 seed in the projections. Alabama, Auburn, Illinois and Kansas are generally rated just behind UK in that 4 seed range, and every one of those teams except for the Jayhawks were still alive in their conference tournaments and favored to win their games Friday.
UK did beat Alabama and Auburn in their only head-to-head matchups, however, and KU is unlikely to move up to the 3 line at this point.
With Purdue, UConn, Houston, Tennessee, North Carolina and Arizona surely locked into six of the top eight spots, that leaves just two 2 seeds up for grabs. It seems a long shot that Kentucky could get into that range at this point, but a run to Sunday’s SEC title game and some losses by teams around them in the projections might be enough to do it.
Complicating that matter is the Baylor-Iowa State matchup Friday night. One of those teams had to win. Kolek’s situation might mean a Marquette loss Friday wouldn’t be held against the Golden Eagles, who would probably sew up a 2 seed with a win.
Whatever happens, Kentucky’s March Madness fortunes look a lot better now than they did a few weeks ago, and a 3 seed appears to be the most likely outcome.
Sunday
NCAA Selection Show
When: 6 p.m.
TV: CBS-27
SEC Tournament
At Nashville, Tenn.
All times EDT
WEDNESDAY
▪ No. 12 seed Arkansas 90, No. 13 Vanderbilt 85, OT
▪ No. 11 Georgia 64, No. 14 Missouri 59
THURSDAY
▪ No. 9 Mississippi State 70, No. 8 LSU 60
▪ No. 5 South Carolina 80, No 12 Arkansas 66
▪ No. 7 Texas A&M 80, No. 10 Mississippi 71
▪ No. 6 Florida 85, No. 11 Georgia 80
FRIDAY
▪ No. 9 Mississippi State 73, No. 1 Tennessee 56
▪ No. 4 Auburn 86, No. 5 South Carolina 55
▪ No. 7 Texas A&M 97, No. 2 Kentucky 87
▪ No. 6 Florida 102, No. 3 Alabama 88
SATURDAY
1 p.m.: No. 9 Mississippi State (21-12) vs. No. 4 Auburn (25-7), (ESPN)
About 3:30 p.m.: No. 7 Texas A&M (20-13) vs. No. 6 Florida (23-10), (ESPN)
SUNDAY
1 p.m.: Championship game (ESPN)
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